POLO REMAINS SPLIT HEADING INTO NEXT FEBRUARY'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 004067

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR PTER CO
SUBJECT: POLO REMAINS SPLIT HEADING INTO NEXT FEBRUARY'S
PARTY CONGRESS

SUMMARY
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1. (C) On October 26, the Polo Democratico Alternativo (Polo)
party held internal elections to elect 1500 delegates to its
2nd National Congress--planned for February 2009. The
elections did not produce a clear winner among the three
leading Polo factions: Bogota Mayor Samuel Moreno's
supporters, a center-left group affiliated with Senator
Gustavo Petro, and the radical left associated with the
Communist and Maoist parties. Nearly half of Polo's
delegates remain uncommitted. Ex-Polo Secretary General
Daniel Garcia-Pena told us the Congress must decide on key
issues--such as whether to enter into an electoral alliance
with other parties and whether to choose candidates through
open or closed primaries--that will determine the Polo's
future prospects. He said former Bogota Mayor Lucho Garzon
would likely win an open Polo primary, but cautioned that a
party split remains a possibility. End Summary.

POLO INTERNAL ELECTIONS
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2. (U) On October 26, three of Colombia's major political
parties--Polo, the U party and the Conservative party--held
internal elections to vote on party leadership, elect
delegates for their internal party congresses, and plan for
the 2010 presidential and congressional elections (see septel
for Conservative and U Party results). More than 500,000
activists voted in the Polo elections, choosing 1,500
delegates for its 2nd National Congress which will held in
February 2009. Party President Carlos Gaviria said the
results provided the "foundation for the composition for the
2nd National Congress, where the delegates will choose the
executive committee and the national direction of the party."

POLO REMAINS DIVIDED
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3. (C) Since its inception in 2003, the Polo has been divided
between more pragmatic elements and an influential,
hard-left, Communist wing. Daily "El Espectador" noted the
Polo's difficulty in trying to meld Colombia's notoriously
sectarian leftist groups into a unified party. Former Polo
Secretary General and Narino Governor Antonio Navarro Wolff
told us the Polo is "a mess," with the communist elements
around Polo President Carlos Gaviria blocking efforts to
clearly condemn the FARC, enter into electoral alliance with
other parties, or to adopt more moderate policies aimed at
broadening the Polo's electoral appeal. Former Polo
Secretary General Daniel Garcia-Pena said that in the battle
between the hard left and more pragmatic elements, the
balance of power is held by Bogota Mayor Samuel Moreno. He
noted that Moreno tends to side with Gaviria and the hard
left.


4. (C) Three key factions--out of 361 disparate lists put
forward by regional party leaders--competed in the October
elections, with none garnering a majority. The faction led
by Samuel Moreno and Senators Ivan Moreno, Jaime Dussan, and
Jesus Bernal, received 16-18% of the 1,500 delegates. A
center-left group led by Senator Gustavo Petro, ex-Bogota
Mayor Luis "Lucho" Garzon, and ex-Foreign Minister Maria Emma
Mejia received 15-17% of the vote. Lastly, the
"unreconstructed left" faction, led by Senator Jorge Robledo,
received 10% of the delegate count. Gaviria and Communist
Representative Wilson Borja led the fourth and fifth place
party lists. Garcia-Pena told us almost half of the
delegates elected are not tied to one of the three major
factions. He fears these "free-agents" may create chaos at
the party Congress.

POLO'S FUTURE
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5. (C) Polo's internal divisions will likely continue into
the 2010 presidential and congressional elections. After the
internal Polo elections, Borja, Petro and Robledo publicly
said maintaining a "united Polo" would be the priority.
Gaviria said Polo's goal is to continue growing and building
the party base. Still, Garcia-Pena told us the Polo will
likely remain a minority Party unless the February Congress
changes Party rules to make it easier to form electoral

coalitions and to open up its internal primaries to
independent voters. For example, he noted that the party
currently requires an 80% vote to approve forming an alliance
with another party. He and other moderates are pushing to
change the rule to 50%. Garcia-Pena claimed the Polo's
refusal to form alliances in the 2007 local elections cost it
a share of power in numerous departments and cities.


6. (C) Carlos Gaviria has told us repeatedly that he does
not want to run again, but Garcia-Pena predicted that he will
do so. The hard left has no other viable candidate, and
Gaviria's vanity will lead him to run. Garcia said that
Lucho Garzon would likely win an open Polo presidential
primary, though many doubt whether Lucho can carry the party
to a 2010 victory. Garzon, a Polo founder, told us he would
only run on a Polo ticket if the far-left of the Party was
isolated or split from the Party. Garzon also said he has
met with Cesar Gavria to explore his options inside the
Liberal Party.

BROWNFIELD