NO MOVEMENT IN SIGHT ON PEACE TALKS WITH FARC AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 003795

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PTER PHUM CO
SUBJECT: NO MOVEMENT IN SIGHT ON PEACE TALKS WITH FARC AND
ELN

Classified By: Political Counselor John Creamer
Reasons 1.4 (b and d)

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Peace Commissioner Restrepo told us there will likely
be no movement on peace talks with the FARC until the first
half of 2009 at the earliest, adding that talks with the ELN
also remain "highly doubtful." FARC leader Alfonso Cano is
focused on consolidating internal control of the group, and
the ELN is increasingly tied to the FARC through their common
strategic partner--Venezuela. Restrepo expects the FARC to
make a proposal in 2009 in an attempt to influence the 2010
Colombian presidential elections and exploit a perceived USG
interest in a peace process. Catholic Church intermediary
Father Echeverri told us civil society feels an obligation to
try to revive ELN talks, but is not optimistic. He told us
Restrepo, who recently the mooted the possibility of
retirement, appears exhausted and "without any new ideas" on
the FARC or ELN. End summary.

NO MOVEMENT ON FARC TALKS
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2. (U) Peace Commissioner Luis Carlos Restrepo said in an
October 13 "El Tiempo" interview that there are "no ongoing
GOC conversations" with the FARC, and that FARC chief Alfonso
Cano is focused on reinforcing his position as the group's
military chief. He added that he "saw little FARC interest"
in a possible humanitarian exchange of FARC hostages for
jailed FARC members. Restrepo also mooted his possible
retirement, noting that he would like to resume the freedom
of private life.


3. (C) Privately, Restrepo told us there will be no movement
on talks with the FARC for at least six months. FARC
mid-level commanders in Valle de Cauca and assistants to Cano
and fellow Secretariat member Pablo Catatumbo have met with
GOC-authorized messenger Henry Acosta, but rebuffed Acosta's
requests for a meeting--citing security concerns. Restrepo
said Cano is concentrating on consolidating his control over
the FARC and managing Mono Jojoy, modernizing the group's
terrorist apparatus, and strengthening the position of loyal
commanders--especially Catatumbo and Ivan Marquez. Cano is
also working to reorganize FARC finances, set specific
operational goals for commanders, and rebuild the FARC's
political apparatus.


4. (C) Restrepo added that Operation Jaque, which freed 13
hostages including Ingrid Betancourt and three Americans in
July, helped Cano bolster his internal position by putting
Jojoy on the defensive. He added that Cano also devotes
considerable effort to cultivating ties with radical
Venezuelan figures including former-Interior Minister Ramon
Rodriguez Chacin. Restrepo said Rodriguez Chacin and other
Venezuelan radical continue to see the FARC as an integral
part of the GOV's Bolivarian strategy. Vice Defense Minister
Sergio Jaramillo concurred, telling us the GOC continues to
support the FARC at the same time it asks FARC members to
train Venezuelans in irregular warfare.

FARC'S LIKELY NEXT MOVES
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5. (C) Restrepo speculated that the FARC will likely make a
peace proposal in the first half of 2009 in an attempt to
influence Colombia's 2010 presidential elections and to
exploit a perceived U.S. interest in starting a peace
process. He noted that in 2006 the FARC tried to support
Alvaro Leyva's presidential bid; the group would likely
support Piedad Cordoba in 2010. He said peace advocates such
as Moritz Akerman continue to advise the FARC that a new U.S.
administration will try to promote GOC-FARC peace talks.
Restrepo stressed that the GOC does not believe the FARC is
interested in serious peace talks, but said the GOC will be
prepared with initiatives to maintain the tactical advantage.
The worst outcome would be for the FARC to trap the GOC
into a peace process that relieves military pressure on the
group but does not produce a cease-fire and FARC
demobilization.


6. (C) Restrepo said GOC efforts to persuade individual FARC
fronts or blocs to demobilize en masse have failed to date,

since the group retains sufficient internal discipline --as
well as fear--among its commanders. GOC military pressure
has reached a tipping point in terms of the FARC's military
capacity, but has not broken the Secretariat's will to fight.
The FARC maintains sufficient capacity to launch major
terrorist strikes, and its leaders believe the current
economic crisis and continued Venezuelan support will enable
it to remain a viable force. In this context, recent U.S.
sanctions against Rodriguez Chacin and other senior GOV
security officials were very useful for the GOC. Restrepo
said he hopes the USG will publicly sanction more GOV
officials in the near future.

ELN TALKS DOUBTFUL
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7. (C) Restrepo said a renewal of GOC talks with the ELN is
highly doubtful. The ELN is increasingly linked to the FARC
through the two groups' common strategic partner--Venezuela.
Catholic Church peace intermediary Father Dario Echeverri
told us separately that Restrepo originally hoped to use ELN
talks as a hook to start negotiations with the FARC. Given
the ELN's continued intransigence, the GOC has now shifted
its focus to the larger terrorist group.

GOC OUT OF IDEAS ON FARC AND ELN
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8. (C) Echeverri lamented that Restrepo appears exhausted
and "without any new ideas" on the FARC or ELN. He said the
Civil Society Facilitation Commission for the ELN process met
on October 7 to consider ways to revive ELN talks. The
Commission decided that--in light of the emerging
"FARC-political investigations"--it would seek GOC approval
to meet with jailed ELN commander Juan Carlos Cuellar to
pitch a proposal that would involve the ELN releasing some
kidnap victims to lay the groundwork for an eventual meeting
between Restrepo and ELN Central Command (COCE) members Pablo
Beltran and Antonio Garcia. Echeverri conceded that
prospects for success are slim, but he said the Commission
feels obligated to continue making proposals.


9. (C) Echeverri added that he met with Henry Acosta in late
September in Bogota. Acosta received a letter from Catatumbo
(Acosta's main contact) in which Catatumbo said neither he
nor Cano could meet with Acosta. Catatumbo reportedly
instructed Acosta to forward any GOC peace proposals to the
FARC for "evaluation." Acosta told Echeverri that when he
conveyed this message to Peace Commissioner Restrepo,
Restrepo was "very disappointed," and speculated there might
"no longer be any point in maintaining a Peace Commissioner's
office."

BROWNFIELD