URIBE CONTINUES TO KEEP ALL OPTIONS OPEN ON

id: 170996 date: 9/22/2008 19:25 refid: 08BOGOTA3537 origin: Embassy Bogota classification: CONFIDENTIAL destination: header: VZCZCXYZ0000 PP RUEHWEB DE RUEHBO #3537/01 2661925 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 221925Z SEP 08 FM AMEMBASSY BOGOTA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4860 INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 8391 RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1028 RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 6573 RUEHZP/AMEMBASSY PANAMA PRIORITY 2348 RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO PRIORITY 7253 RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC PRIORITY RHMFIUU/FBI WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY -------------- header ends -------------- C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 003537 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PTER PHUM CO SUBJECT: URIBE CONTINUES TO KEEP ALL OPTIONS OPEN ON POSSIBLE THIRD TERM Classified By: Political Counselor John Creamer Reasons 1.4 (b and d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) President Uribe continues to keep all options open on a possible third presidential term. He urged Congress to shelve the proposal for a constitutional change to allow a third term after it was presented on September 10, but congressional leaders said Congress is legally required to consider the initiative. Uribe also intimated he would not run for a third term, or might delay a reelection bid until 2014, if his congressional coalition named a single Uribista candidate. Still, coalition leaders tell us it would be very difficult for the fractious Uribe coalition to agree on a unified candidate Third term initiative leader Guillermo Giraldo predicted Uribe would run in 2010, and said the first congressional votes on the initiative would occur in mid-October. He dismissed the 2014 option, arguing that Uribe would face strong resistance from whoever was the incumbent. End summary. URIBE KEEPING HIS OPTIONS OPEN -------------- ¶2. (C) President Uribe continues to keep all options open as the initiative to amend the constitution to allow for a possible third Uribe term makes it way through Congress. Uribe said on September 10--the day the reelection proposal was presented in Congress--that he wanted Congress to put the reelection proposal on the back burner so it could focus on pending judicial and political reform bills. He also suggested he might defer any reelection ambitions until 2014. Uribe heightened the uncertainty on September 17, saying he was inclined not to run for a third term, but only if his fractious coalition reached agreement on a single "Uribista" presidential candidate. ¶3. (C) Still, House of Representatives President German Varon (Cambio Radical) and third term initiative leader Guillermo Giraldo (U Party) told us Uribe's statements were tactics to deflect third term critics. Conservative Party leader Efrain Cepeda, Giraldo, and Varon told us it would be very hard for the coalition to unite around a single candidate given the presidential ambitions of Cambio Radical leader German Vargas, Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos, Ambassador to the United Kingdom Noemi Sanin, and others. Cepeda said that if Uribe did not run, the election could be contested by five or more Uribista candidates--creating the prospect of a victory by a leftist candidate such as former Bogota Mayor Lucho Garzon and likely prompting another Uribe presidential bid. ¶4. (C) Former Senate President Nancy Gutierrez agreed that Uribe's refusal to clarify his third term intentions is designed to ensure that numerous coalition candidates move forward, making a unified candidate unlikely. U Party Senator Martha Lucia Ramirez, who is planning her own candidacy, said despite his oft-stated claims to want a unified coalition candidate, Uribe has done nothing to promote such a goal. Journalist Mauricio Vargas, who is close to Uribe, told us the president "does not want to be close" to any contenders, including Uribista candidates, because such distance would facilitate an Uribe third term campaign in either 2010 or 2014. Giraldo contended that Uribe could not wait until 2014, since any incumbent--even an Uribista--would likely seek his or her own second term. URIBE AS FDR? -------------- ¶5. (C) Giraldo told us he and Uribe agreed when the reelection effort began that they would not discuss Uribe's intentions so Giraldo could maintain "plausible deniability." He explained that Uribe is following President Franklin D. Roosevelt's 1940 strategy of "sitting back and waiting until a last minute clamor from the people" forces him to run. Giraldo noted that under the Law of Guarantees (Ley de Garantias),Uribe could delay any presidential announcement until November 2009, six months before the May 2010 presidential elections. Still, most observers think Uribe would have to actively campaign to generate the 25% turnout of registered voters (approximately 7 million) required to make the constitutional referendum valid. Several Casa de Narino insiders tell us Uribe will need to declare his intentions even earlier to ensure congressional passage of the initiative before the end of the year. FIRST CONGRESSIONAL VOTES COULD OCCUR IN MID-OCTOBER -------------- -------------- ¶6. (U) The third term proposal language being considered by Congress has also raised doubts about Uribe's intentions, with some legislators arguing that the current language would preclude a 2010 Uribe candidacy. Giraldo acknowledged the issue, but told us Congress could modify the language to remove any uncertainty. He said that despite Uribe's request that Congress drop the referendum issue, Congress is legally required to consider the measure as the first order of a business, since it is the result of a popular initiative. He expects the first two of the required four congressional votes to happen in mid-October. BROWNFIELD =======================CABLE ENDS============================