COLOMBIA'S DISPLACEMENT PARADOX

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 003506 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2018 TAGS: PREF PHUM PREL CO SUBJECT: COLOMBIA'S DISPLACEMENT PARADOX REF: A. BOGOTA 00969 ¶B. BOGOTA 03093 Classified By: Political Counselor John S. Creamer Reason: 1.4 (b,d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (U) Despite significant security, economic, and political gains in Colombia since 2002, new displacements continue at high levels. The GOC registered more than 321,000 new displacements in 2007, and nearly 160,000 have registered in the first seven months of 2008. International organizations and civil society identify a mix of factors driving continuing displacements including: 1) GOC success in regaining territorial control; 2) greater competition among illegal armed and criminal groups for resources; 3) threats and violence from emerging criminal groups; 4) expanded access to, and awareness of, displacement assistance benefits; and 5) lack of viable economic alternatives in many rural areas. The GOC's response to displacement has greatly improved, with GOC aid to IDPs rising almost 700% since 2003 and active IDP programs nationwide. Still, challenges remain. The GOC and international and local humanitarian groups are working to boost community cohesion to prevent displacements and to further enhance the availability and effectiveness of assistance programs. End Summary. -------------- Displacements Continue at a Significant Level -------------- ¶2. (U) New displacement registrations have continued at high levels over the last three years. Accion Social, the government agency responsible for providing assistance to internally displaced persons (IDPs),registered more than 321,000 new displacements in 2007, and nearly 160,000 IDPs have registered in the first seven months of this year. From 2005-2007, an average of more than 277,000 IDPs have registered with the GOC each year. This increase follows significant declines after displacements peaked in 2002, when the GOC registered more than 430,000 IDPs (Reftel A). Continuing displacements is a cause for concern among humanitarian groups, international donors, and the GOC. In testimony to the U.S. Congressional Human Rights Caucus in July, Marco Romero, president of CODHES, a respected Colombian human rights group, confirmed that the number of IDPs in Colombia continued to increase, especially over the past two years. ¶3. (U) The continued high displacement numbers are occurring despite GOC success in increasing security nationwide and in improving the quality of life in many regions (Reftel B). There is now a consolidated GOC presence in many conflict zones retaken as part of the GOC's democratic security policy. Murders fell from almost 29,000 in 2002 to 17,000 in 2007, and kidnappings declined from over 2,800 per year to less than 600 during the same period. Nearly 48,000 combatants, mostly paramilitaries, have laid down their arms and entered the GOC's reintegration programs. Unemployment and poverty figures have declined by 25 and 20 percent, respectively, since 2002. The apparent contradiction between continued high displacement and improving security and economic conditions has left many struggling to understand the displacement dynamic. -------------- Key Factors Driving Continuing Displacements -------------- ¶4. (C) In recent meetings, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC),the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR),the International Organization for Migration (IOM),and the American and Colombian Red Crosses (ARC/CRC) identified a mix of factors driving displacements. All agreed that the GOC's success in regaining territorial control in many parts of the country has had the unavoidable side effect of causing displacements--at least in the short term. As the GOC consolidates its presence in an area through the establishment of security, health, education and other public institutions, illegal armed groups and criminal bands find themselves forced to relocate to more remote areas, triggering new displacements. ¶5. (C) The greater GOC military pressure on the FARC, ELN and criminal groups has also led to greater competition among the illegal actors for resources, especially in rural areas where GOC security gains remain fragile. These groups increasingly fight among themselves for control of coca fields, trafficking routes, extortion rackets, and recruits, creating direct and indirect displacement. IOM reports that entire families often abandon their homes when their children reach the age when they become targets for recruitment. Displacements also are frequently caused by the extensive use of anti-personnel mines to protect coca fields and encampments from competing armed groups, as well as Colombian security forces. The combination of increased GOC presence and greater competition means displacement has become more "regionalized," with large displacements frequently occurring in major drug trafficking and conflict hot spots along or near Colombia's Pacific Coast (Narino, Cauca, Valle de Cauca, Putumayo, and Choco),and in Antioquia, Tolima, Caqueta, and Arauca. ¶6. (C) The international organizations also identified criminal groups, as well as a few remaining paramilitary-type structures such as Organizacion Nueva Generacion in Narino, Aguilas Negras in Santander, and Los Rastrojos in Narino, as major causes of displacement. There are an estimated 30-40 criminal groups with more than 3,000 members. These groups primarily focus on trafficking of drugs, arms, persons, and contraband, but also use threats and violence against civilians. In August, threat and abuse by Los Rastrojos caused nearly 300 Embera indigenous persons to flee their homes in rural areas in Choco department. There also have been reports that emerging criminal groups aggressively target demobilized combatants to join their ranks. ¶7. (C) International groups also cite enhanced public awareness of, and access to, IDP program benefits as another cause of an increase in IDP registrations. There are now viable IDP assistance programs nationwide. UNHCR said more than 2.6 million IDPs have registered with the GOC since 1995 (including nearly 1 million in the past four years),which shows improved trust in the system. More awareness of IDP assistance benefits also has attracted more fraudulent claims, especially from desperate economic migrants trying to access IDP benefits. Viviana Ferro, the Accion Social Subdirector of Displacement Assistance, told us she believes that as many as 30% of the 150,247 "individual" registrations this year (as opposed to "mass" displacement registrations) could be considered suspect. Still, the number of suspect claims may be offset given that several respected human rights groups estimate that 20-40% of IDPs do not register out of fear, restricted access, or other reasons. ¶8. (C) The lack of viable alternative economic opportunities in many local communities, especially in rural areas where some ten million Colombians reside, creates a vacuum filled by criminal groups and illicit activities that cause displacement. ARC/CRC explained that while there have been many positive economic gains on a macro-level, these gains have not been felt in many poverty stricken, primarily rural areas. Consequently, many in these communities, especially youth, are attracted to the types of criminal activities that leads to displacement. -------------- GOC Response Effective, But More Can Be Done -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The GOC's response to displacement has greatly improved in recent years. The GOC has committed to spend more than $2 billion on IDP assistance from 2006-2010. In 2008, the GOC will spend close to $530 million on IDPs--a 687% increase over IDP spending in 2003. In addition, the ICRC and UNHCR consider Colombia's IDP legal framework to be one of the most advanced in the world. Still, humanitarian organizations, international donors, and the GOC recognize that there have been some problems in preventing displacement and implementation of assistance programs. While there have been marked improvements in security in cities and towns, the weak GOC presence in many rural areas enables illegal armed groups and criminal bands to maintain control of wide swaths of territory. Furthermore, the capacity of authorities to respond to displacement varies from region to region. In some remote areas, relief may sometimes be delayed for days or even weeks. ¶10. (U) The GOC, international groups, and civil society suggested that more needs to be done to enhance and expand prevention and assistance programs. In this respect, the GOC and international and local humanitarian organizations are working to strengthen community cohesion in the face of threats that lead to displacement, to improve the response capacity and effectiveness of national and local authorities, and to create viable economic alternatives. A few examples include: CHF International, a US-based NGO that serves as Accion Social's national implementor of IDP programs, provides food, shelter, household kits, educational supplies, and psychosocial support to IDPs. CHF also is working to create long-term economic opportunities and to strengthen the capacity of governmental and civil society organizations to assist IDPs. ICRC is working with State institutions on community rehabilitation and strengthening in conflict affected areas, including projects designed to build or repair infrastructure, such as schools, shelters, community centers, and water-supply systems. IOM is working with the GOC on the protection of property rights of IDPs and in providing emergency assistance and reintegration for displaced populations. NICHOLS