URIBE KEEPS THEM GUESSING ON POSSIBLE THIRD TERM

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 003338 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PTER PHUM CO SUBJECT: URIBE KEEPS THEM GUESSING ON POSSIBLE THIRD TERM REF: BOGOTA 3304 Classified By: Political Counselor John Creamer Reasons 1.4 (b and d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) President Uribe has not yet announced whether he will seek a Constitutional amendment that would allow a possible third Uribe term, but he repeated on September 3 that "it is not good to perpetuate yourself in power." Presidential Advisors Jose Obdulio Gaviria and Mario Eastman told us Uribe remains undecided, but suggested that the president is increasingly inclined not to seek an additional term. Gaviria said key coalition parties do not support a third term--substantially raising the political cost of another reelection effort--and added that Uribe would not personally push for the amendment. House of Representatives President German Baron told us Congress would narrowly pass a third term amendment, but only if Uribe announced his intentions and personally lobbied for passage. Meanwhile, the National Registrar will finish validating the five million signatures--the first step in the amendment process--submitted by amendment proponents by mid-September. End summary. NO DEFINITIVE WORD YET FROM URIBE -------------- ¶2. (U) President Alvaro Uribe continues to create uncertainty about whether he will seek to amend the Constitution to allow for a possible third term. He repeated to a group of European businessmen on September 3 that "it is not good to perpetuate yourself in power," but refrained from categorically discarding such an option. When asked who would be a good choice to succeed him, Uribe looked towards former two-time presidential candidate and current Ambassador to LONDON Noemi Sanin, saying she was "electable." At a breakfast on September 4 with coalition Congressional leaders, Uribe also identified Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos, former Senator German Vargas Lleras, and former Interior and Justice Minister Carlos Holguin as possible candidates. Uribe indicated he would support a unified coalition candidate, but Colombian law would prohibit him from formally endorsing, or campaigning for, a candidate. URIBE CONFIDANT: THIRD TERM UNLIKELY -------------- ¶3. (C) Presidential Advisor Jose Obdulio Gaviria told us prospects for amending the Constitution to allow Uribe to seek a third term look increasingly doubtful. In addition to Uribe's concern that a third term would adversely affect his personal legacy, Gaviria said the Uribista congressional coalition does not strongly support such a measure. Some Conservative Party members would follow former President Andres Pastrana in opposing an amendment. The coalition Cambio Radical Party would also likely resist given the presidential aspirations of its leader and former Senator, German Vargas Lleras. Key dissidents in the U Party, including former defense minister Senator Martha Lucia Ramirez and Senator Gina Parody, would also vote against. This internal opposition would substantially raise the "political cost" of getting an amendment through congress. ¶4. (C) Gaviria said Uribe would not personally lobby for the reform, leaving the work to Minister of Interior and Justice Fabio Valencia Cossio. This would probably not be enough to guarantee passage, although the possibility remained that Congress could approve the amendment if Uribe agreed not to run in 2010. Gaviria noted that legislation approving language for a follow-on referendum would have to be approved by the end of the Congressional session in December to allow Uribe to run in 2010. He noted that even if Congress approved a referendum question by then, the GOC would face a difficult task in mobilizing the seven million voters needed to make the referendum valid. (Note: Under the Constitution, 25% of registered voters must participate in a referendum for the results to count.) ¶5. (U) Presidential Communications Director Jorge Mario Eastman said Uribe remains undecided on whether to run again, but leans towards the idea of running in 2014. Any third term, whether in 2010 or 2014, would require a Constitutional amendment. Eastman said Uribe may try to disguise his plans into 2009 to delay lame duck status, but confirmed that Congress would need to approve legislation for a referendum in 2008 to make a 2010 campaign possible. Eastman discounted the possibility that Uribe would try to amend the Constitution through congressional action--as opposed to a referendum--but said this would not change the timetable. Congress would have to approve the first four of the eight steps needed to amend the Constitution by legislative action by December to allow Uribe to stand in 2010. IF URIBE PUSHES FOR THIRD TERM, HE'LL GET IT -------------- ¶6. (C) Representative German Baron, president of the House of Representatives and spokesman for Cambio Radical, told us that given Uribe's popularity, Congress would likely approve an amendment if the President publicly announced his intention to run and personally lobbied for the measure. Baron said he opposes a third term and supports Vargas Lleras, but conceded that a slim majority of Cambio Radical legislators would likely support a third term. Despite feeling abandoned by Uribe due to his fight with the Supreme Court over the para-political scandal, a majority of Uribista legislators would also be inclined to approve the measure. He added that by his count, Cambio represents the "swing votes" for the amendment--creating opportunities for Vargas Lleras to negotiate with Uribe. BUT HE NEEDS TO DIRECTLY ENGAGE -------------- ¶7. (C) Baron said Minister Valencia would not be able to deliver the votes needed to pass the third term amendment on his own. If Uribe were unwilling to publicly declare his intentions or did not lobby Congress when it began consideration of the third term legislation, the initiative would probably stall. Baron said legislators would interpret Uribe's silence--or unwillingness to personally engage--as a "no thanks" to a third term. The U party plans to present legislation calling for a referendum in Congress in mid-September, once the National Registrar validates the five million signatures third term proponents collected since May. Only 1.4 million signatures were legally required for the measure to be introduced. ¶8. (C) Opinion in Congress on whether or not Uribe will run again is mixed, but most think he will do so. Leftist Polo Senator Jaime Dussan predicted Uribe would run again. Liberal Senator Carlos Julio Gonzalez and Conservative leader Efrain Cepeda told us Uribe's popularity (which remains in the upper 70s) will compel him to do so. Cambio Radical Senator Rodrigo Lara said Uribe's concern over the para-political investigations, his battles with the Supreme Court, and the recent visit of International Criminal Court Prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo (reftel) would lead him to stand again to minimize the possibility that he would be subject to international or local criminal investigations in the future. NICHOLS