TAMING THE DRAGON: COLOMBIA'S ECONOMIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 002459 SENSITIVE SIPDIS FOR WHA/EPSC MROONEY E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2018 TAGS: ETRD ECON CO SUBJECT: TAMING THE DRAGON: COLOMBIA'S ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA Classified By: ECONOMIC COUNSELOR LAWRENCE J. GUMBINER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Historically focused on trade with the United States and economic integration with its Latin American neighbors, Colombia has only begun in the last decade to expand its trade relationship with giant Asian markets such as China. Colombia-China trade has grown briskly in the last three years, propelled by Chinese demand for raw materials and Colombian demand for inexpensive consumer goods. Nevertheless, Chinese direct investment and tourism have lagged other destination countries in the region. This one-dimensional focus along with increasing displacement of Colombian industries such as shoes and textiles have begun to fuel protectionist measures against Chinese goods in Colombia. Meanwhile, a few Colombian companies have begun to enter the Chinese market with generally positive results as the GOC looks to develop for niche markets for non-commodity exports to China. END SUMMARY. Growing Trade, but Increasingly Out of Balance -------------- - ¶2. (U) Between 1995 and 2007, Colombia's bilateral trade with grew from USD 350 million to over USD 4.4 billion according to Colombian statistics agency DANE and the Ministry of Trade. While still small in comparison U.S.-Colombia trade (USD 19 billion in 2007),China now ranks as Colombia's fifth largest trading partner and has displaced Japan and Korea as Colombia's most important Asian trade relationship. Colombian exports to China have grown from USD 140 million in 2003 to USD 1.1 billion in 2007. The bulk of exports focus on raw materials such as nickel and scrap metal as well as some non-traditional goods such as leather. ¶3. (U) Imports from China have surged more significantly, increasing from USD 686 million in 2003 to USD 3.3 billion in 2007--making China the second largest source of imports after the U.S. This rapid growth in imports has ballooned Colombia's trade deficit with China from USD 546 million in 2003 to USD 2.2 billion in 2007--its highest deficit with any trade partner except Mexico. Displacement and Safeguards Increasing -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Chinese goods have displaced much of the local clothing, dishware, shoe, and toy sectors. As a result of this displacement and its increasingly lopsided trade balance with China, the GOC has begun implementing safeguards to prevent dumping of Chinese consumer products. For example, Colombia's shoe and textile industries, already buffeted by the peso's 20 percent appreciation this year and nervous about prospects for the pending U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement (CTPA),convinced the GOC earlier this year to place quota restrictions on competing Chinese imports. As a consequence, a number of local retailers, including U.S. shoeseller Payless, are now facing difficulties in assuring adequate inventory for their stores. Nevertheless, Dr. Pio Garcia, Asian Studies Coordinator at the Universidad Externado de Colombia and a former Foreign Ministry official, insisted to Econoff that without the safeguards now in place most of Colombia's remaining shoe and textile businesses would go out of business. Free Trade Agreement Suicide -------------- ¶5. (C) Garcia acknowledged that Colombian consumers cannot resist the lower prices of Chinese imports, adding that virtually no Colombian manufacturers are efficient enough to compete with Chinese products. Although the GOC has aggressively pursued free trade agreements in addition to the CTPA as a means of expanding markets for Colombian goods, Trade Ministry official Juan Carlos Mondragon told us privately that such an agreement with China was unlikely due to the inability of many Colombian manufacturers to compete with Chinese products. Garcia went further and characterized a free trade agreement with China as "economic suicide", but suggested that some sector-specific agreements, such as in agriculture, could be in Colombia's interest. Not a Top Priority for China... -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Echoing the Mondragon's sentiment in a June 9 interview, China's Ambassador to Colombia Li Changhau described bilateral commercial relations as "not sufficiently mature" to consider a free trade agreement. While suggesting that there existed much potential for growth in bilateral commercial relations, Changhau commented that Chinese-Colombian relations had not reached a "strategic" level such as with Chile, Brazil, or Mexico. ¶7. (SBU) Figures on Chinese investment and tourism in Colombia reinforce the image of Colombia as a second-tier market for China. Chinese foreign direct investment in Colombia significantly lags flows to Brazil, Mexico, Chile and Peru. According to Colombian Central Bank figures, Chinese direct investment in Colombia has averaged only USD 4.3 million since 2003. The two largest investments in recent years focused on the energy sector where Daqing Group and Sinopec have invested in relatively small oil and gas exploration projects. ¶8. (C) Camilo Nino, Asia Market Analyst at Colombia's trade and investment promotion agency ProExport, predicted Chinese investment would grow over the next five years, but acknowledged that most Chinese investment in the region would likely gravitate toward raw material opportunities in larger markets such as Brazil. Garcia told Econoff that his contacts in the Chinese investment community considered Colombia down on the list of investment targets with Central American countries such as Costa Rica and El Salvador. Of the nearly 1.2 million tourists to visit Colombia in 2007, the Ministry of Trade's tourism division reports that slightly less than 8,000 came from China. But Colombian Firms Interested in Out-Sourcing -------------- - ¶9. (SBU) Recognizing the competitive advantages of sourcing goods from China, a few major Colombian companies have established operations there Leading ceramics producer Corona opened its first office in Guangzhou in early 2006 after calculating it could trim its suppliers and brokers in half by working directly with local firms. Despite significant start-up costs, Corona turned a USD 1 million profit on its Chinese investment in the first year and has already opened a second office. In less than two years over 12 percent of its global sales are now produced in China with input from Colombian product development teams. Corona Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer Kevin Howard told Econoff that starting operations was not easy, but that Corona remained extremely optimistic about prospects for expansion in China. ¶10. (SBU) Howard pointed to the low cost of highly skilled labor as the top attraction for Corona, noting that a new product which takes 18 months to develop in Colombia only requires eight months in China. Corona is now looking to purchase one of its Chinese suppliers and hopes to develop a new line of ceramic and tile products for low-income Chinese consumers. While a few other Colombian firms such as paper and packaging conglomerate Carvajal have set up offices in China, Howard said most major Colombian companies have avoided the country due to their traditionally cautious, inward-looking nature. Howard expects more Colombian businesses to follow Corona's path as they see the strong investment return potential. Chicken Feet & Rabies Vaccines: Key to Chinese Market? -------------- -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Meanwhile, the Colombian government continues looking for options to increase access for non-traditional exports to the China. Nino described China, along with India, as Colombia's top priority for developing exports to Asia. He pointed to the recent decision by ProExport and Colombia's Ministry of Trade to open a commercial office in China as evidence of the GOC commitment to increasing business in the Chinese market. Nino said ProExport is in the process of identifying Colombian products that would encounter strong demand in China. As a pilot project, ProExport has begun assisting Colombian poultry producers in exporting chicken feet, currently a waste product in Colombia, to China where demand exists as a gourmet food product. Pio Garcia cited other niche products, such as rabies vaccines and dental materials, as the most feasible manner for Colombia to establish a beachhead for non-commodity exports to China. Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) Despite the impressive growth in Colombia-China trade in recent years, the relationship remains largely one-directional with Colombia relegated to the role of raw material supplier and destination for inexpensive manufactured goods. It is not viewed as prime FDI material by the Chinese. Colombian trade experts recognize the importance of the Asian market, and especially that of China, but are struggling to identify export products that enjy a strong comparative advantage in the Chinese market. Moreover, Colombia's endemic competitiveness issues, from onerous taxes to high labor costs to poor infrastructure, place local industry at a stark disadvantage. We expect bilateral trade to keep growing, with Colombia's substantial trade deficit expanding at an even greater rate. BROWNFIELD