PARA-POLITICAL SCANDAL COMPLICATES POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 001568

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2018
TAGS: PREL PREF PTER PHUM CO
SUBJECT: PARA-POLITICAL SCANDAL COMPLICATES POLITICAL

REFORM, POSSIBLE URIBE BID FOR THIRD TERM

Classified By: Political Counselor John Creamer
Reason 1.4 (b and d)

SUMMARY
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1 (U) The growing number of legislators arrested due to
alleged paramilitary ties is complicating Congressional
efforts to pass political reforms and could affect efforts to
promote a third term for President Uribe. The scandal has
cost the GOC its majority in the Senate's First
Commission--which is responsible for constitutional
issues--making it dependent on opposition support. GOC
coalition leaders told us they intend to pass the reforms --
which would penalize parties with a loss of seats for members
convicted of ties to illegal armed groups -- by June.
Opposition Liberal Party chief Cesar Gaviria said the
Liberals oppose the current reform bill as well as a third
term for Uribe. End Summary.

ARRESTS AFFECT KEY SENATE COMMISSION
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2. (U) With 62 members of Congress under investigation and 32
in jail, the para-political scandal is impacting the ability
of the GOC's Congressional coalition to move bills through
the Senate First Commission, which handles constitutional
issues. Four coalition senators and one opposition member
from the commission are in jail or under investigation;
another has declared himself ineligible to vote on political
reform legislation. With 19 total members (10 coalition and
six opposition),10 votes are needed to pass
legislation--meaning the GOC coalition remains two-three
votes short of a majority and -- barring a rule change or
commission reassignments -- must depend on opposition
support. 52 of the 62 legislators implicated to date are
from the governing coalition.

GOC: REFORM BILL MUST PASS BY JUNE
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3. (U) The political reform bill was introduced last year and
has passed through four of the eight votes needed to become
law--the next vote would take place in Senate First
Commission. The reform bill would penalize any party with
the loss of the seat of any member(s) found to have ties to
illegal armed groups. Any party with half its members
implicated would lose its legal status and right to run
candidates. A party would need to win five percent of total
votes cast (up from two percent) to maintain its legal
status--a provision designed to limit the number of small,
regional parties that have been heavily implicated in the
para scandal. Finally, the votes of members implicated would
be removed from party totals, which could put several small
parties below the threshold required to maintain legal
status.


4. (C) Conservative Party leader Senator Efrain Cepeda told
us the GOC intends to pass a political reform bill by the end
of the current legislative session in June, and are looking
for needed votes in the Senate First Commission. Cepeda and
U Party President Senator Carlos Garcia (First Commission
member under preliminary investigation) said legislators
realize that passing a political reform bill is the only
short-term measure available for Congress to address the
para-political scandal and salvage its legitimacy. Cepeda
said coalition parties are considering changing commission
assignments to restore the original coaliton-opposition
balance. Commission reassignments are permitted for senators
once, and require a vote of the full Senate to be approved.


OPPOSITION DEMANDS CHANGES
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5. (C) Opposition Liberal Party Chief and former President
Cesar Gaviria said the Liberals would oppose the bill in its
present form, and suggested compromise language advancing the
time a seat would be lost to as soon as a member of Congress
is detained. Current language would only bring the loss of a
seat with a conviction, which frequently takes years.
Liberal Senator Carlos Julio Gonzalez told us his party is
divided over the issue. With 10 Liberals implicated in the
scandal, Gonzalez said the party is eager to show Congress
can deliver on reform. They are ready to compromise, and

many Liberals would support the bill in its current form.

CONGRESS, LEGITIMACY, AND A THIRD TERM
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6. (U) Numerous political commentators question whether the
Congress possesses the legitimacy to propose and implement
important constitutional legislation--including legislation
to allow a possible third term for Uribe. Any legislation
permitting a third term would originate in Senate First
Commission. News weekly "Semana" floated a proposal on April
27 for a national accord between the GOC and opposition.
Under the proposal, there would a popular referendum on
whether to hold early elections for Congress and to commute
the sentences of legislators that did not participate in
violence. Such politicians would be barred from public
office. "Semana" said the opposition would not accept such
proposal unless Uribe gave up his pretensions for a third
term. Gaviria said in an "El Tiempo" interview on April 27
that "No one in Colombian public life is irreplaceable. The
Colombian tradition has not been to support either Caudillos
or Messiahs."

BROWNFIELD