PARA-POLITICAL SCANDAL COMPLICATES POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 001568 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2018 TAGS: PREL PREF PTER PHUM CO SUBJECT: PARA-POLITICAL SCANDAL COMPLICATES POLITICAL REFORM, POSSIBLE URIBE BID FOR THIRD TERM Classified By: Political Counselor John Creamer Reason 1.4 (b and d) SUMMARY -------------- 1 (U) The growing number of legislators arrested due to alleged paramilitary ties is complicating Congressional efforts to pass political reforms and could affect efforts to promote a third term for President Uribe. The scandal has cost the GOC its majority in the Senate's First Commission--which is responsible for constitutional issues--making it dependent on opposition support. GOC coalition leaders told us they intend to pass the reforms -- which would penalize parties with a loss of seats for members convicted of ties to illegal armed groups -- by June. Opposition Liberal Party chief Cesar Gaviria said the Liberals oppose the current reform bill as well as a third term for Uribe. End Summary. ARRESTS AFFECT KEY SENATE COMMISSION -------------- ¶2. (U) With 62 members of Congress under investigation and 32 in jail, the para-political scandal is impacting the ability of the GOC's Congressional coalition to move bills through the Senate First Commission, which handles constitutional issues. Four coalition senators and one opposition member from the commission are in jail or under investigation; another has declared himself ineligible to vote on political reform legislation. With 19 total members (10 coalition and six opposition),10 votes are needed to pass legislation--meaning the GOC coalition remains two-three votes short of a majority and -- barring a rule change or commission reassignments -- must depend on opposition support. 52 of the 62 legislators implicated to date are from the governing coalition. GOC: REFORM BILL MUST PASS BY JUNE -------------- ¶3. (U) The political reform bill was introduced last year and has passed through four of the eight votes needed to become law--the next vote would take place in Senate First Commission. The reform bill would penalize any party with the loss of the seat of any member(s) found to have ties to illegal armed groups. Any party with half its members implicated would lose its legal status and right to run candidates. A party would need to win five percent of total votes cast (up from two percent) to maintain its legal status--a provision designed to limit the number of small, regional parties that have been heavily implicated in the para scandal. Finally, the votes of members implicated would be removed from party totals, which could put several small parties below the threshold required to maintain legal status. ¶4. (C) Conservative Party leader Senator Efrain Cepeda told us the GOC intends to pass a political reform bill by the end of the current legislative session in June, and are looking for needed votes in the Senate First Commission. Cepeda and U Party President Senator Carlos Garcia (First Commission member under preliminary investigation) said legislators realize that passing a political reform bill is the only short-term measure available for Congress to address the para-political scandal and salvage its legitimacy. Cepeda said coalition parties are considering changing commission assignments to restore the original coaliton-opposition balance. Commission reassignments are permitted for senators once, and require a vote of the full Senate to be approved. OPPOSITION DEMANDS CHANGES -------------- ¶5. (C) Opposition Liberal Party Chief and former President Cesar Gaviria said the Liberals would oppose the bill in its present form, and suggested compromise language advancing the time a seat would be lost to as soon as a member of Congress is detained. Current language would only bring the loss of a seat with a conviction, which frequently takes years. Liberal Senator Carlos Julio Gonzalez told us his party is divided over the issue. With 10 Liberals implicated in the scandal, Gonzalez said the party is eager to show Congress can deliver on reform. They are ready to compromise, and many Liberals would support the bill in its current form. CONGRESS, LEGITIMACY, AND A THIRD TERM -------------- ¶6. (U) Numerous political commentators question whether the Congress possesses the legitimacy to propose and implement important constitutional legislation--including legislation to allow a possible third term for Uribe. Any legislation permitting a third term would originate in Senate First Commission. News weekly "Semana" floated a proposal on April 27 for a national accord between the GOC and opposition. Under the proposal, there would a popular referendum on whether to hold early elections for Congress and to commute the sentences of legislators that did not participate in violence. Such politicians would be barred from public office. "Semana" said the opposition would not accept such proposal unless Uribe gave up his pretensions for a third term. Gaviria said in an "El Tiempo" interview on April 27 that "No one in Colombian public life is irreplaceable. The Colombian tradition has not been to support either Caudillos or Messiahs." BROWNFIELD