URIBE'S 84 PERCENT APPROVAL RATING SPURS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 001001 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREF PREL PTER DR EC VZ CO SUBJECT: URIBE'S 84 PERCENT APPROVAL RATING SPURS RE-ELECTION EFFORT REF: 07 BOGOTA 8478 Classified By: Political Counselor John S. Creamer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). URIBE: 84 PERCENT APPROVAL AND RISING -------------- ¶1. (U) A Gallup poll taken March 4-6, shows President Uribe with an all-time high 84 percent approval rating. Only 13 percent disapproved of his performance, the lowest figure since 2002. The poll was taken prior to the Rio Group meeting in Santo Domingo, and pollster Jorge Londono said the Rio Group's result would likely further boost the president's image. Sixty-seven percent of Colombian also registered a favorable impression of the United States in the poll--up from fifty percent in January. Londono said positive fallout from USG support during Colombia's dispute with Ecuador and Venezuela--as well as public recognition that Plan Colombia has been key to recent GOC successes against the FARC--were behind the increase. RE-ELECTION DRIVE MOVES AHEAD -------------- ¶2. (U) Meanwhile, the U Party continued its effort to collect signatures for a possible Uribe re-election bid--the first in a series of multiple steps required to amend the constitution to allow a third term. On March 11, the U Party presented 260,826 signatures to the National Registrar's office, far more than the 140,000 needed for the Party to form a legal committee to promote the third term initiative. The Registrar's Office announced it would need one month to review the validity of the signatures and approve formation of the committee. Once formed, the committee would have six month to collect a total of 1.4 million signatures (5 percent of registered voters) to present a referendum proposal to Congress. The amendment process will take between 12-18 months. URIBE UNDECIDED ON THIRD TERM -------------- ¶3. (C) Presidential Communications director Jorge Mario Eastman told us President Uribe has not decided what he will do. The President understands that a third term could damage Colombia's democratic institutions, and he is not motivated by the perks of personal power. Still, Uribe believes--as does much of the country--that he may be the only figure capable of leading Colombia through the major regional and domestic challenges it faces. Uribe will assess the situation later in the amendment process, delaying his decision as long as possible. Eastman stressed that Uribe has not instructed anyone in the GOC or the Casa de Narino to work on the U Party's reelection effort, nor has the process factored into his decision-making while managing the recent Ecuador/Venezuela crisis. Brownfield