KYRGYZ OPPOSITION PREPARES FOR LOCAL ELECTIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000970

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (GORKOWSKI)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ OPPOSITION PREPARES FOR LOCAL ELECTIONS,
BUT HOLDS OUT LITTLE HOPE

REF: BISHKEK 897

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Classified By: A/DCM Robert Burgess for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. Leading Kyrgyz opposition parties are
actively contesting the October 5 local council elections,
especially in Bishkek, but several party leaders told us that
they do not expect to win more than a few seats. Opposition
parties complained of administrative pressure and other
obstacles, and claimed that opposition parties would take 75%
of the vote in a fair election (at least in Bishkek). Of
three party leaders we met, one emphasized cooperation with
the current government, whereas the other two identified
sparks that might rally the people against the government.
The latter two also blamed the United States for democracy's
failure in Kyrgyzstan, and criticized the United States for
being too close to the country's current leadership. The
Embassy plans to field election observers on October 5. End
Summary.

Party Election Plans
--------------


2. (C) The official campaign period for Kyrgyzstan's
October 5 local council elections has begun, and candidates
are running either individually or on party slates.
Opposition parties are actively preparing for the local
elections, but claim to hold little hope of gaining more thanQtoken number of seats, and show no signs of presenting a
united front. Poloff met with Bolot Alymkulov, a party
activist for Ak Shumkar; Shamshibek Utebaev, the recently
elected leader of the Erkindik party; and Asiya Sasykbayeva,
an Ata Meken activist, Director of the NGO InterBilim, and
"deputy-speaker" of the shadow public parliament. Each of
the three parties plans to participate in local elections,
with varying degrees of organization and a focus almost
wholly on Bishkek. (Note: There are no local elections in
Osh, Kyrgyzstan's second biggest city. End note.)


3. (C) The parties' strategies for gaining seats vary:
Erkindik plans to submit only a party list with one candidate
for each of Bishkek's eleven districts, while Ata Meken plans
to submit a longer list of 25 candidates, and Ak Shumkar, a
short party list with a greater number of "sleeper"
candidates in case their party list is disqualified. Ak
Shumkar's Alymkulov believed that the security services would
know candidates' party affiliations, but reasoned that it
would be administratively more difficult to block multiple
independent candidacies than one party list. None of the
parties anticipated winning more than a few of the 44 open
seats in Bishkek, but claimed that in a fair election,
opposition parties would take at least 75 percent of the
vote.

Government Interference Backstage
--------------


4. (C) Opposition parties and press reports indicate active
government interference in the election process. Sasykbayeva
reported that two promising young Ata-Meken candidates had
been successfully pressured to drop their candidacies or else
lose their jobs. Alymkulov reported that the Central
Election Commission (CEC) required that each candidate have
separate election funds, which would prevent parties from
spreading limited funds across the pool of candidates. The
most highly publicized case of government interference
involves Ishenbai Kadyrbekov, an ex-MP, whose candidacy the
CEC rejected because the Interior Ministry failed to certify
that Kadyrbekov does not have a criminal record. (Note: The
election code does not require either individual candidate
election funds, or candidate clearance from the Interior
Ministry. End note.)


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The Only Wonks in Kyrgyzstan
--------------


5. (C) Erkindik leader Shamshibek Utebaev, at the helm of
his party since April, claimed a party membership of 35,000.
He characterized his party as neither pro-government nor
opposition, and said that Erkindik members would neither take
government positions, nor protest in the streets. Rather,
his party's goal was "just to work." Unlike other
non-government parties, Erkindik has a wonkish policy agenda
-- solar energy, English and Chinese language training, and
cheap housing -- and Utebaev was most animated when talking
about cooperating with the government. He dismissed other
opposition parties and particularly the opposition's public
parliament, claiming the latter was a "last resort" for
ex-government officials. Utebaev echoed government optimism
about energy supplies this winter, but cautioned that
"disaster" awaited the country if no corrective action were
taken to resolve the energy shortage.

Join the Socialist Revolution!
--------------


6. (C) Both Sasykbayeva and Alymkulov spoke passionately
about the need for another "revolution," and identified
numerous potential sparks, beyond winter electricity outages,
that might contribute to popular unrest: closed schools,
high food prices, and widespread popular disgust with Ak Jol,
the president's party. In our separate meetings, each
attributed President Bakiyev's announcement that Ak Jol would
not field any party lists in the local elections to his
recognition that association with Ak Jol would sink a
candidacy. (Note: An alternative explanation is that this
step would limit embarrassing intra-party squabbling. End
note.)


7. (C) While both Sasykbayeva and Alymkulov quoted Lenin on
revolutions, they blamed the United States for the failure of
democracy in Kyrgyzstan and cited as evidence our continuing
assistance to the government and our failure to denounce the
current parliament as illegitimate. In particular, both
compared the Embassy's strong response to a direct economic
threat -- the destruction of a security fence around the
Hyatt Hotel (see reftel) -- with what they characterized as
the U.S. Government's tepid response to the hijacking of last
December's parliamentary elections.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) The opposition's revolutionary rhetoric appears to
lack resonance among the population. Plus, with most
opposition heavyweights bought off, scared away or lying low,
opposition party prospects appear limited in the October 5
elections. The most interesting facets of the election will
likely be the degree to which the government reacts to a
non-existent threat, and the potential revelation of
cleavages within the ruling Ak Jol party. One rumor
circulating around Bishkek is that the new Bishkek mayor, who
led the charge against the Hyatt fence, has endorsed a
separate set of candidates than the one approved by the Ak
Jol leadership. Embassy plans to field observers in the
Bishkek area on October 5 to monitor the conduct of the
elections.
GFOELLER