KYRGYZSTAN B1/B2 VALIDATION STUDY

UNCLAS BISHKEK 000748 SIPDIS DEPT FOR CA/FPP: EHOLMES, CA/VO/F/P: MEARL, DS/CR/VG DEPT ALSO PASS TO KCC POSTS FOR FRAUD PREVENTION MANAGERS FRANKFURT FOR RCOS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: CVIS KFRD KG SUBJECT: KYRGYZSTAN B1/B2 VALIDATION STUDY ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Embassy Bishkek conducted its first validation study of B1/B2 visa issuances. By combining results from DHS's Advanced Targeting System (ATS),Arrival Departure Information System (ADIS),and follow-up telephone calls, post examined 100% of B1/B2 issuances from May 1, 2007 - September 30, 2007 and discovered that only 6.3% of applicants overstayed or adjusted status. As this is post's first ever validation study for B1/B2 applicants, it will incorporate lessons learned from its analysis of subjects who overstayed when making future adjudication. END SUMMARY. -------------- Data Collection and Methodology -------------- ¶2. (SBU) B1/B2 applicants comprise approximately 46.4 % of Bishkek's annual NIV workload. In order to generate a sample group sufficiently large enough to analyze, post looked at all B1/B2 issuances from May 1, 2007 - September 30, 2007 - which resulted in a sample group of 413 individuals. 100% of the sample group was submitted to CA/FPP with for assistance in checking arrival and departure information via ATS and ADIS. Due to post's small size, it would have consumed significant time and resources to conduct telephone inquiries or using ADIS itself. The initial results showed 29 overstays and adjustments of status. Post then followed up with telephone calls to those 29 to confirm that they had indeed overstayed and were not data errors. The follow up calls showed that in actuality 26 individuals from the sample group or 6.3% overstayed or adjusted status in the U.S. The confidence interval was calculated to be +/- 2.33% or that there is 97.67% confidence in the results. -------------- Who is applying? The Typical Kyrgyz Applicant -------------- ¶3. (SBU) By examining the biographical data of issued applicants, post looked at the demographics of its NIV population. The average age of Bishkek's applicants in Summer 2007 was 42. 18% of applicants were over 60 while 38.74% of issued applicants were under 35 years of age. Only 4% of those older than 60 overstayed or adjusted status - representing 12% of all overstays. Only 7.5% of those issued who were younger than 35 overstayed. ¶4. (SBU) Bishkek's adjusted NIV refusal rate in FY 2007 was 20.76% - with 29.8% refusal rate for B visas alone according to the Visa Office's published statistics. Post rarely sees applicants who travel for other than family reasons. The typical Kyrgyz applicant has a daughter or son living in the U.S. and usually have family members awaiting their return to Kyrgyzstan. Grandparents often take turns going to the U.S. rather than both being absent simultaneously. Post rarely sees an applicant going for tourism's sake alone. This past winter saw sharp increases in inflation while the value of the dollar fell. Post will be interested to see if this change in local economic conditions alters the overstay rate for the corresponding period. Post is very pleased with this validation study and plans to conduct another one covering the 2007-2008 winter/spring months soon. Post thanks CA/FPP for their assistance with ATS and ADIS. Litzenberger