FORMER DEPUTY DEFENSE MINISTER ORUZBAYEV ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000715

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR KG
SUBJECT: FORMER DEPUTY DEFENSE MINISTER ORUZBAYEV ON
KYRGYZSTAN

REF: IIR 6 955 0204 08

Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.


1. (C) Summary. The Ambassador recently met with former
Deputy Defense Minister Oruzbayev, who confirmed that his
forced resignation was due to his chairmanship of the
government commission established to review the proposed
parking ramp project at the Manas Air Force Base. He also
provided a hard-hitting critique of the Kyrgyz
administration, including the personnel policy of hiring
trusted southerners, and noted that there is widespread
concern about possible, unpredictable unrest in the fall, as
happened in 2004/2005 before former President Akayev's
ouster. He also said the Manas Air Force Base was secure for
now, because both Russia and China recognize the problems in
Afghanistan, do not want to handle the task themselves, and,
therefore, have not insisted that the base be closed. End
Summary.

FROM PROMOTION TO FORCED RESIGNATION
--------------


2. (C) The Ambassador recently met with former First Deputy
Defense Minister Kubanychbek Oruzbayev, who confirmed that
his forced retirement (reftel) was due to his chairmanship of
the government commission established to review the proposed
parking ramp project at the Manas Air Force Base. He said
that events moved very quickly. On May 15, his name was on a
promotion list to receive a second star, and on May 17, that
GKNB Chairman Sutalinov had signed a two page letter charging
Oruzbayev with lobbying the interests of the United States,
particularly with regard to the ramp at the Manas Air Force
Base. By May 18, he was being warned by friends at the
Kyrgyz White House that "something was going on," and on May
20, the President's decree informing of Oruzbayev's
resignation was issued. Oruzbayev noted that, in fact, he
had advocated for the ramp, but because it was in
Kyrgyzstan's interests.

HARSH CRITIQUE OF GOVERNMENT
--------------


3. (C) Oruzbayev said the decision to fire him over the
ramp issue was a "comedy" that showed there was no analysis
going into Kyrgyz decision-making. In part, he said, this
was due to the fact that "incompetent" people are being named
to key positions. The main criteria now for appointment to
government is which region you are from and whether you are a
trusted insider. New Defense Minister Kalyev, he noted, is
very close to President Bakiyev. He added that more
personnel changes will come in August and September.
Oruzbayev noted that, from the President's point of view, he
believes he is doing the right thing by appointing people he
knows, but this is not a well thought-through strategy. With
80% of appointees coming from the south, it is neither a fair
nor a realistic personnel policy, and it leads to north-south
divisions.


4. (C) Looking at the bigger picture, Oruzbayev said that
the main motivation in the government right now is fear. The
economic situation is bad and getting worse. Corruption is
huge and at the root of many problems. Economic decisions
are based on the interests of a very few. The courts are
terrible. The President, he concluded, has no strategic
vision of the future. The leadership is ineffective, and all
decisions are made with the view to preserving power. This
makes "the man with the gun" -- the defense and security

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services -- the key players in Kyrygzstan's political drama
and explains Kalyev's appointment.

CONCERN ABOUT UNREST IN THE FALL
--------------


5. (C) He noted that there is widespread concern that
unrest is possible in the fall, not led by the opposition,
but spontaneous expressions of discontent by ordinary
citizens. This is what happened in 2004/2005 and is very
unpredictable. Concern about demonstrations in the fall
explains why the government is so suspicious of the U.S. and
why it cannot take action on seemingly obvious issues.

MANAS AFB SECURE -- FOR NOW
--------------


6. (C) Asked about the future of the base, Oruzbayev said the
base would stay -- because both Russia and China recognize
the problems in Afghanistan, do not want to handle the task
themselves, and, therefore, have not insisted that the base
be closed down. If Russia really pushed, claimed Oruzbayev,
the base would be out. He said the U.S. should expect more
of the same kind of Russian "tricky actions" periodically,
i.e. untrue internet stories, "crazy" people leading
demonstrations against the base, but that none of this is
serious.

COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) According to Oruzbayev, the year 2005 was
characterized by hope, while the current year is
characterized by fear. We have heard from many others that
the fall could be a hot political season and that President
Bakiyev is preparing by putting trusted lieutenants in place.
Ever calm, Oruzbayev assured the Ambassador that the bleak
picture he painted of Kyrgyzstan was not a "tragedy," rather
it was the expected travails of a country in transition.
"Kyrygzstan has everything it needs to succeed," he
concluded.


8. (C) In our assessment, Oruzbayev's brutal assessment of
the government he just left is only partly shaped by sour
grapes. His comments track with previous remarks he has made
to us and with those of others who are still in government or
are active observers.
YOVANOVITCH