SCO ROLE IN AFGHANISTAN: CONFERENCE SHORT ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 000670 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (GEHRENBECK) AND SCA/FO (MOON) E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER ECON AF KG SUBJECT: SCO ROLE IN AFGHANISTAN: CONFERENCE SHORT ON SPECIFICS, LONG ON CRITICISM OF U.S. REF: 07 BISHKEK 1015 BISHKEK 00000670 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: A June 11-12 conference in Kyrgyzstan examined the possible role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Afghanistan's security and development. Afghan speakers described a bleak situation in the country and called for more foreign aid to focus on fighting terrorism and improving living conditions. Presenters generally supported SCO involvement in providing humanitarian assistance, and some suggested that SCO could undertake to provide training and equipment to the Afghan army and police. While critical of U.S. and NATO efforts, Russian presenters rejected the idea of SCO troops fighting alongside or replacing NATO forces. At the August 2007 SCO summit in Bishkek, member states called for increased SCO cooperation with Afghanistan (reftel); while speakers at the conference echoed that desire for greater cooperation, they provided few specific ideas about how to accomplish this. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) On June 11-12, a conference, "Afghanistan, SCO, Security and Geopolitics in Central Asia," was held at Lake Issyk Kul in Kyrgyzstan. The conference was organized by Dr. Alexander Knyazev, a professor at the Kyrgyz-Russian Slavic University in Bishkek. Knyazev is a vocal opponent of USG activities in Kyrgyzstan and a strong supporter of increased SCO influence in the region. The conference was supported by the Massoud Foundation, the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, and the Alexander Knyazev Public Foundation. Attending were approximately twelve Afghan government officials and experts, ten Russian academics, numerous Central Asian experts, and several Iranians and Chinese. Only one Kyrgyz government official attended. A Role for SCO? -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The aim of the conference was to examine the role which the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) could play in Afghanistan's development. Presenters spoke of the need to incorporate humanitarian assistance from SCO member states with existing operations undertaken by NATO, the U.S., and its coalition of allies. While Afghani presenters welcomed the possibility of SCO assistance, Russian speakers focused �0A;on blaming the United States for losing the war on terrorism and neglecting to support the civilian population. ¶4. (SBU) Presenters agreed that Afghanistan is slowly deteriorating and viewed SCO assistance as a way to plug some of the gaps in the humanitarian assistance sector. The only Kyrgyz government official attending the event, an advisor to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, gave a short speech encouraging dialogue that may bring SCO assistance to the Afghan people. Afghan speakers described a bleak situation for the population of Afghanistan and called for more foreign aid to focus on fighting terrorism and improving living conditions. They also expressed the need for eliminating opium production and trafficking out of Afghanistan. ¶5. (SBU) During his presentation, Dr. Ahmad Wali Massoud, brother of the late Ahmad Shah Massoud and chairman and founder of the Massoud Foundation, observed that the SCO and its observers represent nearly half of the world's population and that Afghanistan would welcome the support from its neighbors to the north. (Note: The Massoud family are Tajiks, who have cultural ties to Iran and Tajikistan.) Engineer Vahidullah Sabaoon, Minister Advisor of Tribal Affairs to the President of Afghanistan, warned that instability in one country is guaranteed to affect the rest of the region. Sabaoon concluded that Central Asia should play a larger role in the development of Afghanistan and the SCO, because of its neutrality, could assist in negotiating BISHKEK 00000670 002.2 OF 003 internal conflicts among Afghan factions. (Note: During Afghanistan's anti-Soviet jihad, Sabaoon was Hezb-e-Islami Gulbudin's liaison to sympathetic Muslim populations in the regions of the former Soviet Union bordering Afghanistan.) Blame the U.S. -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Dr. Victor Korgun of the Russian Academy of Sciences criticized the United States government for failing in Afghanistan but proposed SCO assistance to turn the country around. Dr. Korgun attacked the U.S. for imposing its policies, ignoring the ideas of its own allies, and dictating how Afghanistan should be ruled. He also blamed the U.S. for failing to address the severe social problems plaguing the Afghan population. Korgun stated that the U.S. took notice of the SCO after Uzbekistan forced the closure of its American airbase in Karshi and quoted former DAS Feigenbaum as saying that "the SCO makes the blood boil in many Americans' bodies." Korgun said that for its part in enhancing the livelihoods of the Afghan people, the SCO could deploy "brigades of development workers" similar to those used by USAID. He also proposed the use of SCO assets to improve Afghanistan's security state by providing training for the armed forces and police, together with much needed military equipment. Korgun also stated that narco-trafficking was a debilitating factor that needed to be extinguished. Korgun, along with other Russian presenters, firmly stated that deploying SCO troops to Afghanistan to fight alongside or replace NATO and U.S. coalition soldiers was not an option. ¶8. (U) Dr. Leonid Bodarets, an expert on security issues from Kyrgyzstan, delivered the most inflammatory critiques of U.S. efforts in Afghanistan and proposed Russian aid via the SCO as the most logical solution. Bodarets said that "the U.S. achieved none of its goals" and the coalition failed on all fronts. He said that the Pentagon shared "false" intelligence to its own allies and "released leaders of bandit forces, like Juma Namangani (of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan)" for no apparent reason. Bodarets said that the U.S. encourages drug production and "closes its eyes to narco-trafficking." Turning his focus on Central Asian leaders, Bodarets claimed that the ruling elite of Central Asia sold out their nations to the west. He warned that, once foreign leaders fall out of favor with the U.S., Americans tend to end the rule of that allied leader by "death," using the execution of Saddam Hussein as an example. Bodarets claimed that, "even here in Kyrgyzstan, the government had to expel two U.S. diplomats in 2006 for supporting youth groups in their aim to overthrow the government." As an alternative, Bodarets offered the assistance of Russia and the SCO to Afghanistan and encouraged negotiations with all internal factions, to include the Taliban. Dostum: Life not Getting Better Despite Aid -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Abdul Kadyr Dostum, member of Afghanistan's parliament and brother to Uzbek warlord General Abdul Rashid Dostum, told Poloff that although the U.S. has poured billions of dollars into Afghanistan, life seems to be getting worse for the rural population. Dostum reminisced about his trip to the U.S. in the late 1990s, recalling how life for all Americans was "wonderful" and hoping that his own country could someday be as prosperous. He warned, however, that Afghanistan is so incredibly complex and fragmented that progress will be painfully slow. Massoud: Broader Coalition Needed within Afghanistan -------------- -------------- BISHKEK 00000670 003.2 OF 003 ¶10. (C) During an aside, Massoud told Poloff that President Karzai is unable to control the provinces and that many governors and tribal leaders have little respect for his authority. Prior to the presidential elections in 2004, Massoud said that he warned Karzai against ignoring the numerous fragments of Afghan society and turning his presidential election into a "win for one individual." Instead, Massoud suggested that Karzai focus on developing a coalition government with sufficient representation of all factions, tribes, and ethnic groups, thus creating a "win for the nation." Massoud said that Karzai ignored his pleas and now rules over a defunct government that has little influence over the regions. He also said that the government has become corrupt, accusing Karzai's brother, Ahmed Wali, of running a drug smuggling operation. Massoud said that Karzai is also seen as a puppet of the west, further eroding the president's public opinion. When asked about next year's presidential elections, Massoud could not identify a suitable candidate but reiterated the importance of an all-inclusive coalition government. Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) The August 2007 SCO summit in Bishkek called for a greater role for SCO countries in stabilizing Afghanistan (reftel),and the speakers at this conference also supported greater cooperation between SCO countries and Afghanistan. While the presenters suggested areas for greater involvement, they, once again, provided few specifics on how to accomplish this. They also did not address issues concerning how any SCO assistance would be integrated into on-going efforts, or how SCO would coordinate with NATO or UN authorities. From the Kyrgyz perspective, Central Asian states could play a greater role. The Kyrgyz government has suggested that Kyrgyzstan could participate in re-development projects in Afghanistan that are initiated by international donors and economic institutions. YOVANOVITCH