SCENESETTER FOR DAS KROL'S JUNE 19-22 VISIT TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BISHKEK 000627 SIPDIS DUSHANBE PLEASE PASS TO DAS KROL DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MARR KG SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR DAS KROL'S JUNE 19-22 VISIT TO KYRGYZSTAN REF: A. BISHKEK 614 ¶B. BISHKEK 593 ¶C. BISHKEK 546 ¶D. BISHKEK 530 BISHKEK 00000627 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: CDA Lee Litzenberger, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) Embassy Bishkek warmly welcomes the June 19-22 visit to Kyrgyzstan of Deputy Assistant Secretary George Krol. This visit will offer the opportunity to meet some of the key decision makers in the government, as well as representatives from the political opposition and civil society. Following is a brief overview of the main political and economic issues in the country, as well as some suggested points for specific meetings. In all of your meetings, you should express condolences on the recent death of Kyrgyzstan's preeminent author and statesman, Chingiz Aitmatov (Ref A). Political Consolidation -------------- ¶2. (C) Over the past year, President Bakiyev has moved to consolidate political power and to divide the opposition. A Bakiyev-proposed new version of the constitution, adopted through a flawed referendum in October 2007, strengthened the power of the presidency. Deeply flawed elections in December 2007 gave Bakiyev's new Ak Jol party complete control of the parliament, with the "constructive opposition" Social Democrats and the Communists gaining a few seats each and the largest opposition party, Ata Meken, excluded altogether. Bakiyev's family members are playing increasingly important roles. He recently appointed his brother Janysh as head of the presidential security service, and the new Minister of Defense, Bakytbek Kalyev, is also reportedly a relative (Ref C). Bakiyev's son Maxim is reportedly involved, though behind the scenes, in a number of business ventures. Prime Minister Chudinov, who focuses mainly on economic issues, is also a Bakiyev loyalist. The Political Opposition -------------- ¶3. (C) The political opposition remains disunited and disorganized. The government has continued to exert pressure against some members of the opposition, including through the use of tax investigations, court cases, and even physical intimidation. Some have left politics altogether, and some, such as Ata Meken leader Omurbek Tekebayev, are concentrating on party building and the fall municipal elections. Asaba party leader Azimbek Beknazarov has remained publicly critical of Bakiyev, but his announced protests in the spring failed to gain any following. The Social Democrats, who represent the only real opposition in Parliament, have been quiet, preferring to try to influence legislation in Parliament. The Political Agenda -------------- ¶4. (C) Government insiders told us repeatedly that the increased authority -- and stability -- would allow them to undertake economic, judicial, and law enforcement reforms. The government has moved forward quickly with legislation to reform the judicial system, as envisioned in Kyrgyzstan's Millennium Challenge Account Threshold Program. For example, the new Judicial Council, composed of judges, will have substantial authority over training and discipline in the judicial system, as well as over budgeting and administration, if the law is fully implemented. ¶5. (C) However, there have also been a number of apparent steps backwards with legislation. Bakiyev signed amendments BISHKEK 00000627 002.2 OF 004 to the broadcasting law which give the president full control over the board of the state radio and television broadcasting company, ending the promise of establishing a public interest broadcaster. Strangely, as Bakiyev signed the bill, he instructed the Ministry of Communications to consider further amendments that would take into account the many criticisms of the bill. Citing a need to reduce the number of political parties, Parliament passed a new political party law which makes party registration more difficult. Parliament also passed a new law on public assembly, which restricts when and where public meetings can be held. The government had requested OSCE/ODIHR to review the draft law on public assembly, but Parliament passed the legislation before ODIHR could complete its review. Bakiyev has not yet signed the political party or public assembly bills. The government is also drafting a new law on religion, which in its current form could restrict the rights of minority religious groups and ban religious conversions. Economic Difficulties -------------- ¶6. (C) Despite robust 8% GDP growth, increased government revenues, and a steady flow of remittances from Kyrgyz working abroad, the Kyrgyz economy may be heading into a difficult period (Ref B). Inflation, pushed by the rise in world commodity prices, may reach 30% this year. As a result of faster-than-expected government spending in the first part of the year, the government has mandated a 20% spending cut across all ministries. A spring frost and a locust infestation have contributed to concerns about food security. And perhaps most significantly, the water level of the Toktogul Reservior, which feeds the main hydro-electricity generation cascade (as well as provides irrigation water to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan) is at a historic low. The government has instituted a number of measures, including electricity rationing and establishment of a food security working group, and it has appealed to international donors to provide additional assistance. Manas Airbase -------------- ¶7. (C) Kyrgyz government officials have expressed their commitment to the continued presence of Manas Airbase, and, unlike two years ago, there does not appear to be any immediate threat to the base. Nevertheless, there are a number of difficult issues connected to the base. Kyrgyz officials repeatedly raise the 2006 Ivanov shooting, asking for the final U.S. investigation report and the disposition of the case. The Kyrgyz also ask about their earlier request for a radar for the airport. Recently, the MFA informed us that it intended to change visa policy for contractors, denying them Kyrgyz visas and requiring them to live on base. If such a policy is implemented, it would affect current operations at the base. In addition, the Kyrgyz have refused to grant flight clearance for OEF-related hazardous cargo which would transit Manas on commercial aircraft. The Kyrgyz have sent us a proposed memorandum on the issue, which could serve as the basis for further discussion. ¶8. (C) Surprisingly, the Kyrgyz have sent mixed signals on the U.S. proposal to invest $30 million to build parking ramp at the airport on land already leased by the base (Ref D). Former Security Council Secretary Mamytov sent a letter turning down the proposal as "inexpedient," but other government officials, including Prime Minister Chudinov and Presidential Chief of Staff Sadyrkulov, confirmed that no government decision has yet been taken on the issue, and they have requested additional information about the project. In addition to providing substantial contracts -- $15-20 million -- for local firms in the construction phase, the completed BISHKEK 00000627 003.2 OF 004 ramp would enhance safety at the airport by increasing space between civilian and military aircraft, and the ramp would represent a permanent improvement to the airport infrastructure. The issue is stuck between the Prime Minister and the Security Council, both of whom point to the other; your visit can help break this deadlock by raising this issue with Presidential Chief of Staff Sadyrkulov, who appears to support the project. The Kyrgyz consideration of the ramp comes at the same time that we appear to be making progress on the Kyrgyz government's request that we provide a radar for the airport -- another potential $30 million investment, and Kyrgyz rejection of the ramp could undercut political support for funding a radar. Additional Points for Government Meetings -------------- ¶9. (U) Your schedule includes a dinner with key donors, including the IMF and World Bank, to provide an overview of the economic situation and recent initiatives; a meeting with opposition politicians; a meeting with civil society and human rights activists; and separate meetings with Chief of Staff Sadyrkulov, Prime Minister Chudinov, Foreign Minister Karabayev, and Security Council Secretary Isakov. ¶10. (C) Chief of Staff Sadyrkulov has wide influence across a range of issues in the Kyrgyz government. He could be helpful in moving forward the Manas parking ramp proposal, as well as getting Kyrgyz approval of our proposed end-use agreement ("505 Agreement") for military assistance. Sadyrkulov also has the lead on Millennium Challenge program coordination, and you may wish to congratulate him on the government's steps on judicial reform, while also pointing out that the government needs to exercise political will in all sectors to improve Kyrgyzstan's MCC indicators. You may also wish to raise our concerns about the trend of recent (and draft) legislation that would restrict citizens' rights, and you may wish to ask for Sadyrkulov's views on the government's plans to deal with possible energy shortages. ¶11. (C) Foreign Minister Karabayev, an academic, is a proponent of deeper engagement with the U.S., especially on economic and commercial issues, and he wants to be able to demonstrate to his government colleagues the benefits of the bilateral relationship. With Karabayev, you may wish to discuss in general terms our cooperation on security, economic, and political issues, and you could also ask about the status of the ramp project and the "505 Agreement." You may want to discuss the future of the Comprehensive Policy Dialogue; following the initial meeting in Washington in September 2007, Karabayev hosted the second round of these bilateral consultations in Bishkek in March 2008. You may also wish to raise issues concerning American citizens, including the proposed change to visa policy for base contractors and a new requirement for OVIR registration for citizens staying longer than 60 days. You may wish to raise our concerns about the recent legislation, and ask about the status of ODIHR assistance and advice on the election code and the public assembly law. Karabayev will certainly raise the Kyrgyz request for an official visit for President Bakiyev to Washington. He is also likely to ask for USG support for Kyrgyzstan's future candidacy for the OSCE Chairmanship. He will ask about the Ivanov investigation, and he may also raise the Kyrgyz request to re-establish a consular agency in New York. He may also raise the Yasynov case, a nine-year-old traffic accident case in which a Kyrgyz citizen was allegedly permanently injured by a vehicle driven by an embassy officer (we will brief you on this case after you arrive in Bishkek). ¶12. (C) Prime Minister Chudinov has told us that no formal government decision has been taken regarding the Manas BISHKEK 00000627 004.2 OF 004 parking ramp, and he requested additional information about the project (which we are providing). You will want to raise the ramp, and you may also point out the importance of the "505 Agreement" to future military assistance, including the $11 million 1206 proposal. Chudinov, who was previously the Minister of Energy, focuses largely on economic and energy issues, and you may wish to ask him about the government's plans for dealing with possible energy shortages, privatization of energy assets, and Kyrgyzstan's participation in CASAREM. ¶13. (C) New Security Council Secretary Isakov was helpful as Minister of Defense. At Defense, he supported the base and was favorably disposed to the ramp, but did not know the details of the project. As Security Council Secretary, he has told us that the decision on the ramp will be a "government decision" and, thus, is the responsibility of the Prime Minister. You may also wish to raise the "505 Agreement" with him, and ask him about the security situation in the south of the country. LITZENBERGER