KYRGYZ SEND MIXED SIGNALS ON U.S. OFFER TO BUILD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 000499 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA - DAS KROL AND SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR KG SUBJECT: KYRGYZ SEND MIXED SIGNALS ON U.S. OFFER TO BUILD STRATEGIC RAMP AT MANAS AIR BASE Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) . ¶1. (C) Summary. Kyrgyz National Security Council Secretary Mamytov informed the Ambassador on May 13 that the Kyrgyz government had decided against the U.S. proposal to invest approximately $30 million to construct a strategic ramp at Manas Airport for the use of coalition aircraft. Prior to this call, indications from MFA and MOD were for a positive decision. Mamytov said he had signed a letter to this effect, but the Embassy has not received it. Deputy MOD Oruzbayev told the Ambassador he was aware of the decision, but did not know how it was reached, and encouraged the Ambassador to raise the matter with PM Chudinov. FM Karabayev told the Ambassador he was unaware of the decision, reiterated his support for the project, and said he would speak with Mamytov. We are seeking meetings with the Prime Minister, the President's Chief of Staff and the Minister of Defense, and hope to clear up the mixed signals and lobby hard for a positive decision. End Summary. NSC calls, but no follow-up letter -------------- ¶2. (C) Late on May 13, Kyrgyz NSC Secretary Mamytov telephoned the Ambassador, to inform her that he had signed a letter that was being sent to the Embassy informing the U.S. that following interagency discussion, the Kyrgyz Government had decided to decline the U.S. offer to build a strategic ramp at Manas airport for use of the coalition air base there. The Ambassador expressed her disappointment with the decision and asked what had prompted such an outcome, but Mamytov said it was a "government decision" and that he did not know. Later that evening, NSC staffers conveyed by phone the text of the letter, which we still have not yet received formally. It states that the Kyrgyz government found the proposal "inexpedient" (netselesoobrazni). Text of the letter, as transmitted by phone, follows below: Begin text. The Security Council has the honor to inform you that the government of the Kyrgyz Republic has carefully and thoroughly examined the Embassy's official note # 036 dated 1 February, 2008, in which the embassy requests to consider the possibility of constructing additional parking for heavy-weight aircraft of the Coalition forces at the international "Manas" airport. As a result of interagency discussions the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic found the implementation of a project to construct additional parking at the international airport inexpedient. End text. Oruzbayev: Appeal to Prime Minister -------------- ¶3. (C) The Ambassador immediately telephoned Deputy Minister of Defense Oruzbayev, who has been a strong supporter of the base. Oruzbayev said he had heard about the decision, but had not seen the letter. He encouraged the Ambassador to take the matter up with the Prime Minister. FM Karabayev: Not aware of decision, supports ramp -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) At the Ambassador's request, Foreign Minister Karabaeyv met with her and the DCM on May 15 to discuss the issue. The Foreign Minister claimed to be unaware of the BISHKEK 00000499 002 OF 003 letter or a negative decision on the ramp, noting that he had not personally participated in the interagency discussion of the request. He reiterated that he and the MFA supported the request, and understood the base's contribution to Kyrgyz security. The Ambasssador noted that her understanding from several interlocutors was that the decision would be made by the government, yet the letter was signed by NSC Director Mamytov, who is not part of the government, but falls under the Presidency. Karabayev agreed that Mamytov does not represent the government. In response to the Ambassador's hope that this was not a final decision, the Minister said, "Nothing is final until the President decides." Possible reasons why the proposal was sensitive -------------- ¶5. (C) Karabayev said that he was confident that a negative response did not mean there was any question regarding the base's continued existence. He opined that three factors may be in play. First, Karabayev suggested that approving the ramp could be seen by some in the GOKG as leading to renewed "politicization" of the base, which appeared to be a reference to internal Kyrgyz and Russian opposition to the base, in general. Second, Karabayev said, the request to build the ramp could be interpreted by some as an indication the U.S. wants a permanent presence. The Ambassador assured the Minister this was not the case, and the Minister agreed, noting that a ramp would not change the terms of the bilateral agreement. A third factor, according to Karabayev, could be the continued negative public opinion surrounding a recent traffic incident with Russian military personnel from the Russian air base at Kant, which he implied could make sensitive any decision regarding Manas air base. Karabayev noted, however, that this decision was not a reflection of Kyrgyz commitment to the base; no one was raising the question of whether the base should be permitted to remain. FM will talk to Mamytov -------------- ¶6. (C) The Ambassador responded that perhaps the GOKG could deflect some of these concerns by noting that the project represents a $30 million investment in Kyrgyzstan, and that we estimate that $15-20 million would go to local Kyrgyz contractors. The year-long construction would provide jobs to Kyrgyz workers, and the ramp would remain as a strategic asset for the airport. At a time of economic challenge, when Kyrgyzstan is trying to attract investment and create jobs, this project offers much benefit to the country. Karabayev took note of these points, and said he was leaving soon for the airport to accompany the President on a trip to the south, and he would raise the issue with Mamytov, with whom he would be traveling. He said he would get back to the Ambassador once he had learned more details about the matter. ¶7. (C) Comment. As of COB May 16 Bishkek time, the Embassy had not received the signed letter from Mamytov, and NSC staff have declined to provide us a copy. Prior to Mamytov's phone call, all indications were that, while other agencies had raised concerns, the MFA and MOD were supportive and were expecting a positive decision. Karabayev confirmed this view. We are seeking meetings with the Prime Minister, President's Chief of Staff and Minister of Defense for further clarification, to reiterate the benefits the ramp would provide the Kyrgyz, and in an effort to head off a negative decision. Unfortunately, all senior officials are out of touch as they accompany President Bakiyev on his May 16 official trip to Tajikistan. While much remains unknown, it does not appear that Mamytov's letter was coordinated well, or at all, among the Kyrgyz interagency, giving us hope BISHKEK 00000499 003 OF 003 we may still be able to influence the outcome. YOVANOVITCH