KYRGYZ POSITIVE ON BAKIYEV-NAZARBAYEV SUMMIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000405

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN - GEHRENBECK

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ POSITIVE ON BAKIYEV-NAZARBAYEV SUMMIT

REF: A. 07 BISHKEK 522

B. BISHKEK 373

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Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Lee Litzenberger for Reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)



1. (C) Summary: President Bakiyev's April 17-18 visit with
Kazakh President Nazarbayev yielded what the Kyrgyz have
called "successful" results: a renewal of wheat exports to
Kyrgyzstan; resolution of Kyrgyz-Kazakh border demarcation
issues; plans for energy sector cooperation; a bilateral
visa-free-regime; and a review of labor migration issues.
The leaders also agreed to grant Kazakhstan control of four
resorts in Kyrgyzstan's Issyk-Kul Oblast, and to swap land
along their border. The land swap has generated unexpected
(and nationalistic) opposition to the transfer of prime
Issyk-Kul pastures for "swampland" in Talas Oblast.
Nazarbayev found it unnecessary to repeat the criticism of
Kyrgyz political instability he voiced during his visit to
Bishkek last April. However, Kyrgyz opposition forces have
made the land transfer agreement a rallying call for marchers
to proceed to Bishkek to protest the deal. End Summary.

Kyrgyz Reap Promised Dividends
--------------


2. (SBU) Kyrgyz commentators have labeled President Kurmanbek
Bakiyev's April 17-18 visit to Astana, under the auspices of
the second "supreme interstate council," a "success." The
Kyrgyz list of "successes" include: 1) a Kazakh promise to
deliver crude oil for refining in Kyrgyzstan; 2) a Kyrgyz
connection to the Turkmenistan-China natural gas pipeline
(also known as the Trans-Asia pipeline); 3) partial Kazakh
financing and construction of a second
Tashkent-Bishkek-Almaty natural gas pipeline; 4) a 90-day
bilateral visa-free-regime; 5) Kazakh support for
Kyrgyzstan's bid for Vice Chair of the 63rd UNGA; 6) promises
to review ways to ease Kyrgyz labor migration to Kazakhstan;
7) securing Kazakh wheat exports to Kyrgyzstan; and 8)
outlining in greater detail the mechanics of a "special
investment fund for joint Kyrgyz-Kazakh projects."

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly Land
--------------


3. (C) The Kazakhs secured a 49-year leasehold on four resort
hotels located on Kyrgyzstan's lake Issyk-Kul. The
properties, which the Kazakhs claim they financed during the
Soviet era and subsequently own, have stoked controversy in
Kyrgyzstan and sparked debate at the opposition-led April 12
kurultai (Ref A). A week prior to the Astana summit, the
pro-presidential Kyrgyz parliament ratified a land swap
agreement on the Kyrgyz-Kazakh state border that included the
Issyk-Kul hotel properties. (Note: The agreement, made under
former president Akayev, had originally been signed by both
countries in January 2001. End note.) The land swap
included the exchange of certain territories along the
Kyrgyz-Kazakh border in Issyk-Kul and Talas Oblasts. Some
political opposition leaders, and much of the media, have
criticized the transfer of prime Issyk-Kul pasture for Talas
"swampland," and have called for supporters to march to
Bishkek in protest. (Note: A Kyrgyz MFA contact told us
that this agreement had been a planned deliverable for the
summit. Bakiyev signed the ratified agreement on April 24.
End note.)

More Talk of Central Asian Economic Unification
-------------- --


4. (SBU) Nazarbayev reiterated his interest in creating a
Central Asian union during the summit. Expanding on his
earlier sketch of the union, Nazarbayev said the union should
specifically address water and energy issues affecting each
country, as well as allocate human and material resources for
Europe's "development." Bakiyev and Nazarbayev agreed to

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hold a forum next year to discuss the matter further. In
anticipation of resource cooperation, both countries have
assigned co-chairs to an intergovernmental commission that
will review prospects for cooperation in water and energy
resources, agriculture, transport, communications, trade, and
natural disaster prevention. (Note: This commission will
also oversee the proposed "special investment fund." End
note.) According to press reports, Uzbek President Karimov
has already criticized the notion of a regional union.

Kyrgyz MFA on Visit
--------------


5. (C) During an April 22 lunch meeting with the DCM, Deputy
Foreign Minister Ibragimov claimed that no deals were made in
exchange for land. However, he placed greater emphasis on
the Issyk-Kul resort issue over the importance of Kyrgyz land
cessions to Kazakhstan. Ibragimov added that the land
agreement was beneficial to both sides, and resulted in no
Kyrgyz citizens being forced to move. He also clarified that
Kyrgyzstan enjoyed an "exception" to Kazakhstan's ban on
wheat exports. (Note: The wheat ban is apparently in place
until September 1. End note.)

Comment
--------------


6. (C) This summit notably lacked the criticism of political
instability Nazarbayev bestowed upon his Kyrgyz neighbors
during last year's meeting (Ref B). Since then, Bakiyev has
consolidated political power and largely muzzled his
political opponents. Kyrgyz parliamentary ratification of
the land agreement seems to have sweetened Nazarbayev's view
of his Kyrgyz partner. While other Central Asian states may
object to a Central Asian union, greater Kyrgyz access to
Kazakh energy resources would resolve many perennial problems
affecting Kyrgyzstan. Bakiyev wants these ideas to stick,
and has already instructed his government to adhere to the
agreements made in Astana.


7. (C) However, Kyrgyz popular reaction to this land
agreement bears scrutiny. Amidst opposition calls for
marchers to head for Bishkek, the land transfer agreement is
raising nationalistic sentiments. If the marchers
materialize, then government authorities may become concerned
that disgruntlement over the land swap may spark a broader
public reaction. Post will monitor and report any
significant developments.

YOVANOVITCH