A SKETCH OF THE NEW, PRO-PRESIDENTIAL KYRGYZ

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000003 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN - GEHRENBECK E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/03/2018 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM KG SUBJECT: A SKETCH OF THE NEW, PRO-PRESIDENTIAL KYRGYZ PARLIAMENT REF: A. 07 BISHKEK 1137 ¶B. 07 BISHKEK 1342 ¶C. 07 BISHKEK 1538 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Lee Litzenberger for Reasons 1.4 (B) a nd (D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Kyrgyzstan's new parliament, the first ever elected on the basis of party lists, includes 23 women, a number of influential business leaders, some suspected organized crime figures, and a former ambassador to the United States. Although the party list requirements ensured female representation and expanded parliament's ethnic mix, this diversification coincides with the pro-presidential Ak Jol party's dominance of the new parliament with 71 of 90 seats. Following President Bakiyev's planned January 10 parliamentary address, parliament's agenda should become clear and we should soon learn how obediently parliament will implement President Bakiyev's priorities. END SUMMARY. THE ROAD TO THE JOGORKU KENESH -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Following almost three years of tension between Kyrgyzstan's executive and legislative branches, and after an October 2007 referendum backed a new constitution that strengthened the presidency, President Bakiyev dissolved parliament and called for early parliamentary elections(reftels A and B). For the first time in the Kyrgyz Republic, candidates competed for seats on the basis of political party lists. The December 16, 2007 parliamentary elections, which failed to meet a number of Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe commitments due to manipulation of the results, handed the pro-presidential Ak Jol party 71 out of the 90 seats in parliament. THE GOOD, THE BAD, AND THE UNKNOWN -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The new Kyrgyz parliament includes 90 MPs from three parties: the pro-presidential Ak Jol, which holds 71 seats; the opposition-leaning Social Democrats (SDPK),with 11 seats; and the Communists, with 8. Among the familiar faces in the new parliament are Social Democrats Roza Otunbayeva, former three-time Foreign Minister and Ambassador to the U.S.; and Bakyt Beshimov, former American University of Central Asia Vice President and Ambassador to India; Ak Jol stalwarts Cholpon Bayekova, former Constitutional Court Chair; Adakhan Madumarov, former State Secretary; and Alisher Mamasaliyev, former Director of the opposition-leaning Kel-Kel youth organization. All have had regular contact with the Embassy, and two -- Beshimov and Bayekova -- are former International Visitor alumni. ¶4. (C) Several prominent businessmen and suspected underworld leaders have obtained parliamentary seats representing Ak Jol. Prominent business leaders include Boris Sun, an ethnic Korean who owns a number of casinos and a hotel (the Golden Dragon); Sergey Ibragimov, Board Chairman of Bakai Bank and owner of alcohol and sugar manufacturing plants; Tabyldy Orozaliyev, Board Chairman of the national oil and natural gas company, Kyrgyzneftegaz; and Asanbek Baitikov, one of the Directors of "Elektrostansii" -- an energy firm formerly headed by the new Minister of Industry, Energy and Fuel Resources, Saparbek Balkibekov. Janysh Kudaibergenov, a former MP and Finance Ministry official, who is rumored to have shady business ties in the automobile industry, returns to parliament. Azizbek Tursunbayev, Sanjarbek Kadyraliyev, and Arapbay Tolonov, are all former MPs with suspected ties BISHKEK 00000003 002 OF 002 to organized crime in southern Kyrgyzstan. ¶5. (SBU) Relatively unknown figures, all hailing from the Ak Jol party list, are Raisa Sidorenko, former Coordinator of the Regional Agricultural Development Project in Chui Oblast; Jyldyz Rakhimidinova, a former school director in Issyk Kul Oblast; Nurgazy Aidarov, the former Regional Manager for the Aga Khan Foundation Assistance Program; Aigul Baiburayeva, ex-Coordinator of OSCE programs in Issyk Kul Oblast; and Turdukan Jumabekova, a former Professor of Law at the Kyrgyz National University. A number of other, lesser known politicians make up the remaining cadre of new MPs -- save for a few holdovers, including communist party leader Iskhak Masaliyev, Vice Speaker Kubanychbek Isabekov, Kabai Karabekov, and Alisher Sabirov. Most are listed within Ak Jol's ranks. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) The inclusion of 23 women, ethnic minorities (to include seven Russians, five Uzbeks, two Koreans, a Dungan, a Uighyur and a Karachai - a Caucasian nationality) and young politicians in the new parliament is a welcome development. Given that the majority are aligned with the pro-presidential Ak Jol party, however, this is not a politically pluralistic parliament. Although Foreign Minister Karabayev argues that there will be real debate in the new parliament, the leverage that the Ak Jol party structure has over its MP's, who would lose their mandates and immunity if tossed out of the party, will likely limit dissent. The Social Democrats and Communists do not have enough votes to challenge any Ak Jol legislative initiatives. President Bakiyev is scheduled to address parliament on January 10, which should provide an indication of parliament's priorities for the coming months. He has already indicated that his focus for 2008 will be on stability and economic development. Post will begin reaching out to MPs following the January 1-7 Kyrgyz government holiday. END COMMENT. LITZENBERGER