KYRGYZ DEPUTY FM COMMENTS ON PRESIDENT BAKIYEV'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000290 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2018 TAGS: PGOV PINR KG SUBJECT: KYRGYZ DEPUTY FM COMMENTS ON PRESIDENT BAKIYEV'S HEALTH REF: A. BISHKEK 283 ¶B. BISHKEK 279 ¶C. BISHKEK 256 BISHKEK 00000290 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) This cable contains an Action Request. See para 8 below. ¶2. (C) Summary. Kyrgyz Deputy FM Ibragimov told Ambassador and DCM on March 26 that Presidential insiders have told him nothing serious is wrong with President Bakiyev. Ibragimov also said he was involved in making flight arrangements (which te Embassy has confirmed) for the President's return March 28. At the same time, Ibragimov was puzzled by how poorly the issue has been handled by the Kyrgyz White House, speculated that a transition of power at the top would not be smooth, and repeatedly asked whether the Ambassador and DCM had reliable information from Germany on the true status of the President's health. End Summary. ¶3. (C) Over lunch with Ambassador and DCM on March 26, Deputy FM Ermek Ibragimov provided his perspective on President Bakiyev's health. Ibraimov, whose family is well plugged into the Krygyz political elite, said he and his close friends are puzzled by the lack of information on the President's condition. He claimed to have checked with those he knew who were in the President's inner circle, and they told him there was "nothing serious" with Bakiyev. Ibragimov said the President, who is in Germany, had been receiving paperwork and taking decisions while away. He said the President's brother Janysh had gone to Germany, as had one son, but he did not know if they were still there. He did not know where Bakiyev's other son was. ¶4. (C) Ibraimov reiterated his earlier claim (Ref A)to the DCM that he haQeen working on arranging gflight clearance for the President's return on March 2Q (NotQ Manas Air Base officials have confirmed to Embassy that a "ramp freeze" has been scheduled at the airport for 1810-1900 local time for the President's return on March 28. End Note.) Later, when discussing whether Bakiyev might be able to attend next week's NATO EAPC meeting in Bucharest, Ibragimov opined that it might depend on whether Bakiyev would need a "rehabilitation" period after his return. ¶5. (C) Speaking personally, Ibragimov said he was troubled by the question of transition of power that had arisen due to the administration's poor handling of the issue, which had led to widespread speculation. He claimed that both opposition leader Tekebayev and Parliamentary Speaker Madamurov (next in line of succession) had been meeting with various people to begin positioning themselves should there be a succession struggle. Ibraimov opined that Kyrgyzstan was not ready to deal with such a situation; it needed more time to develop institutions; right now everything was tied to "one person." He worried that a succession struggle would lead to a north-south split in the country. ¶6. (C) Regarding succession, he shared what he said was an important observation aboutthe March 21 Nooruz celebrations in Bishkek. Usually, he said, the city mayor, who is viewed as non-political, speaks for 2-3 minutes to kick off the festivities. This year, Mayor Daniyar Usenov (who is very ambitious, close to Bakiyev, and may also have presidential aspirations) got up and handed the microphone to Madamurov, who spoke for an unprecedented 20 minutes and was speaking as the first person representative of the country -- a voice usually preserved for the President. ¶7. (C) Comment. Ibragimov asked several times whether the U.S. had information from Germany on the health of the BISHKEK 00000290 002.4 OF 002 President and kept returning to the subject even after the conversation had turned elsewhere. Clearly, this is topic number one with teh Kyrgyz elite and Ibragimov moved back and forth between his DFM role where he sought to reassure us that nothing was amiss and the President would return hale and hearty on March 28 to a less formal role where he speculated with some concern what a serious illnes or even death would mean for Kyrgyzstan. He claimed that the German Ambassador, who just left for an extended leave, had asked several times before he departed post on March 22, "Are you sure there is no serious problem with the President's health?" Ibragimov believed this indicated the German Ambassador had some details from Germany, which he assumed were shared with the U.S. He was clearly fishing for information from us, given his inability to extract details from his own inside contacts. We found his attempt to try and read the tea leaves illustrative of how in the dark even senior GOKG officials are regarding the President's health. Finally, Ibragimov's admission of his concerns about a destabilizing succession struggle belies how fragile he sees his country's political system, and how insecure he is about Kyrgyzstan's future. ¶8. (C) Action Request. The Embassy appreciated earlier information from Embassy Berlin on Bakiyev, and would appreciate the Department's support in requesting Berlin try to obtain further details, if possible. YOVANOVITCH