SPEAK INTO MY SAMOVAR: RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR EAGER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 001136 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR KG SUBJECT: SPEAK INTO MY SAMOVAR: RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR EAGER FOR RUSSIAN-AMERICAN RAPPROCHEMENT IN KYRGYZSTAN REF: A. BISHKEK 924 ¶B. BISHKEK 1133 BISHKEK 00001136 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Ambassador Tatiana C. Gfoeller, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Over tea in the Ambassador's office, Russian Ambassador Valentin Vlasov shared his frustration that the Kyrgyz often perceive Russia and America as antagonists in the region playing a renewed version of the Great Game. In some cases, he thought this was the better to "milk" each side for aid. He and the Ambassador agreed that their two countries actually share a number of interests in the region, including: the fight against terrorism and narcotrafficking, concern over the rise of Islamic extremism in Kyrgyzstan, and the need for stability in Afghanistan. Vlasov hoped that a new U.S. Administration would "solve" the Afghan problem once and for all. The two Ambassadors considered a possible joint press interview where they would accentuate these common interests and agreed to seek guidance on such an idea from their respective capitals. The Russian Ambassador condemned Kyrgyz corruption vis-a-vis Russian-owned local businesses. He concluded by sharing his impression that the August Georgia events had emporewered Medvedev vis-a-vis Putin: "The whole world condemned Medvedev and he did not blink. Now he isn't scared of anybody anymore, including Putin." END SUMMARY. "I'VE NEVER EVEN SEEN YOUR OFFICE!" HE WHINED -------------- ¶2. (C) Temperamental Ambassador of the Russian Federation Valentin Vlasov can be hard to predict. As he demonstrated during the Ambassador's initial call on him, he can veer from aggressiveness to sudden warmth (see ref A). However, a hardy perennial has been his complaint that while he had given a tour of his Embassy to the Ambassador, in his several years in Bishkek, he had never been invited inside the U.S. Embassy. "I've never even seen your office!" he practically whined with self-pity. The Ambassador decided to cut short his efforts to turn this into some kind of personal injury (and emblem of distrust between the two countries) by formally inviting him to tea in her office on November 6. A delighted Vlasov arrived bearing gifts: a huge scarlet box containing an inexpensive modern samovar. DOWN WITH THE GREAT GAME AND "MILKING TWO COWS" -------------- -- ¶3. (C) Vlasov, who had attended the U.S. Elections event at the Ambassador's residence the day before (see ref B),was effusive in his congratulations on a successful Presidential election and hopes for cooperation with the in-coming Obama Administration. Turning to matters closer to home, he shared his frustration that the Kyrgyz often perceive Russia and America as antagonists in the region playing a renewed version of the Great Game. The Ambassador agreed that this perception does exist among some, though she emphasized that this is an erroneous interpretation of (at least USG) policy. In this context, she cited the remarks to that effect made by Assistant Secretary Boucher while recently in Bishkek. ¶4. (C) Vlasov stated that he thought that in some cases, the Kyrgyz were genuinely confused "on whose side" they should be and were afraid of making the wrong choice. For example, he said high-level Kyrgyz officials had confided to him on the margins of the recent CIS Summit that the GOKR was afraid of recognizing the sovereignty of South Ossetia and Abkhazia because "if we do it, the Americans will punish us and take away our aid." However, they also told him that they would be sure to make statements supporting the Russian position on the August Georgia events because "we know that if we don't you'll punish us as well." BISHKEK 00001136 002.2 OF 003 ¶5. (C) On the other hand, Vlasov continued, sometimes the Kyrgyz simply play both the American and Russian sides off against the middle the better to "milk" both sides for aid. The Ambassador shared that a Kyrgyz official had once told her as a joke that the GOKR likes to have both strong Russian and American involvement in the Kyrgyz Republic because "this way we can get milk from two cows." Vlasov laughed that this reminded him of an old Russian saying: "The smart child has two mothers to drink milk from." Rather surprisingly, he concluded that much of this was also due to a "typically post-Soviet" Kyrgyz aversion to think for themselves, decide on a course of action, and take responsibility: "I can't tell you how many times they've come to me asking what they should do over some problem or other. They get upset at me when I tell them to make up their own minds." "MORE UNITES US THAN DIVIDES US" (IN THE REGION) -------------- --- ¶6. (C) The Ambassador and Vlasov agreed that their two countries actually share a number of interests in the region, including: the fight against terrorism and narcotrafficking, concern over the rise of Islamic extremism in Kyrgyzstan, and the need for stability in Afghanistan. Vlasov shared his particular concern over the increasing popularity of extremist Islam among Kyrgyz young men. He believed this tendency was spreading at an alarming rate from southern Kyrgyzstan to the North and bitterly blamed Saudi financing for the trend. He waxed eloquent about the need to "solve" the Afghan problem once and for all, thus bringing much needed stability to the entire region. Echoing standard Russian policy, he lamented that the USG had allegedly let itself be distracted in Iraq when it should have been concentrating on rooting out the Taliban. He expressed the hope that the new Administration would "stop repairing and repainting this broken chair and just get a new one." ¶7. (C) Talk then turned to op-ed articles that both Vlasov and the DCM had submitted to the same Kyrgyz newspaper before the Ambassador's arrival on South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The articles had run on facing pages and -- not surprisingly -- had professed diametrically opposite views. Vlasov acknowledged that in areas such as the Caucasus American and Russian interests are divergent. In Central Asia, however, he thought that "more unites us than divides us." In this context, the two Ambassadors then considered the possibility of a join interview with a single Kyrgyz journalist where they would accentuate these common interests and put to rest the fears (of some Kyrgyz) that the GOKG would have to choose between friendship with one or the other state. So enthusiastic was Vlasov that he said he would immediately call Moscow to propose this initiative and "We could do it tomorrow!" The Ambassador gently cautioned him that it might take longer for her to obtain guidance but promised to refer the proposal to the Department. "WE FLEECE ALL CIS COMPANIES EQUALLY" -------------- ¶8. (C) Vlasov then turned to his travails supporting Russian-owned local businesses. He recounted that he is often called upon by Russian businessmen to protest to Kyrgyz authorities that they are being "fleeced" ("nas raketiruyut") by GOKG officials. When he did this recently, a Kyrgyz bureaucrat told him he should stay out of internal Kyrgyz affairs. When Vlasov protested that he was supposed to stand up for his countrymen, the bureaucrat remonstrated: "Don't act like a Westerner. Russian companies are just like ours. We fleece all CIS companies equally, including our own Kyrgyz ones." GEORGIA SHOWED MEDVEDEV HOW STRONG HE CAN BE -------------- BISHKEK 00001136 003.2 OF 003 ¶9. (C) The Ambassador of the Russian Federation concluded the discussion by sharing his impression of the current state of Putin-Medvedev dynamics. Vlasov claimed to know each of the men personally. At the beginning of their "tandem" governing arrangement, Vlasov thought that Medvedev was shy and unsure of his own strength. He deferred to Putin, and Putin expected that this state of affairs would continue. Then came the August Georgia events. Medvedev had had a choice: hide behind Putin (and blame him for the negative fallout) or take ownership of the Russian position. Medvedev chose the latter course. At a certain point, that meant that "The whole world condemned Medvedev and he did not blink." ¶10. (C) After that, Vlasov claimed, the dynamic between the two men changed. Medvedev realized that he personally could withstand the harshest criticism without being intimidated. At the end of the day, he was still the President of the Russian Federation. No one could take that away from him -- not the West, not even Putin. Vlasov claimed to have seen evidence of this new liberating assertiveness during Medvedev's recent speech in the Kremlin's Georgyevskiy Zal. For example, Medvedev kept referring to "my" policies and decisions. Even the tough Putin used to say "ours" according to Vlasov. Vlasov reiterated that he credited the Georgia events with clarifying in Medvedev's own eyes and those of his countrymen that he is ultimately in charge: "Now he isn't scared of anybody anymore, including Putin. COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) Although we take some of his professions of shared interests with a grain of salt, he seemed genuinely interested in a joint interview that would accentuate those areas of common interest that we do share. Such a joint U.S.-Russian event would help defuse the "Great Game" theme that dominates the media and undermines Kyrgyz support for Manas Air Base. GFOELLER