KYRGYZSTAN: MORE TALK ABOUT MANAS IN RUN-UP TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001015 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR KG SUBJECT: KYRGYZSTAN: MORE TALK ABOUT MANAS IN RUN-UP TO CIS SUMMIT REF: BISHKEK 1002 BISHKEK 00001015 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Tatiana C. Gfoeller, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: During an October 2 meeting with the Ambassador, Foreign Minister Karabayev offered some assurance about the continued presence of Manas Air Base; he said the Kyrgyz government was working to manage the issue at the CIS Summit and would not close Manas Air Base "to please someone else." Following up on their October 2 meeting to discuss pressure to close the base (reftel),Presidential Chief of Staff Medet Sadyrkulov assured the Ambassador in an October 3 telephone conversation that "we are all working for the best possible outcome." However, others have passed on more pessimistic views. Canadian Ambassador Skok was seriously concerned following her meetings the past week in Bishkek that the base was in jeopardy. She said she planned to send an official note in support of the base, pointing out the importance of the base to Canadian humanitarian efforts in Afghanistan. Separately, a senior opposition leader told the Ambassador he thought it likely the Kyrgyz government would decide to close the base following the CIS Summit, reasoning that they would not lose benefits by asking the U.S. military to leave and would gain benefits from pleasing Russia. End Summary. Partial Assurances -------------- ¶2. (C) During an October 3 meeting with Ambassador and DRL Assistant Secretary Kramer, Foreign Minister Ednan Karabayev volunteered that the Kyrgyz government would not close the Manas Air Base in order "to please someone else." Choosing his words carefully, Karabayev implied that the government was doing all it could to manage this issue for the upcoming CIS Summit, scheduled to take place October 9-10 in Bishkek. Separately, the MFA has requested a meeting for October 6 with Embassy and base officials to discuss logistical arrangements and base operations during the summit. ¶3. (C) Following up on their October 2 meeting to discuss pressure to close the base (reftel),Presidential Chief of Staff Medet Sadyrkulov assured the Ambassador in an October 3 telephone conversation that "we are all working for the best possible outcome." Serious Concerns -------------- ¶4. (C) Canadian Ambassador Margaret Skok, resident in Kazakhstan, met with the Ambassador October 2 and conveyed her concerns about the status of the base. She said that in her meetings with Kyrgyz government officials and others over the past week, she sensed that the base might be in jeopardy. Skok did not cite specific information, but she said she was worried that the government was moving toward closing the base. She said she would send an official note thanking the Kyrgyz government for hosting the base and pointing out the importance of the base to Canadian humanitarian operations in Afghanistan. Skok suggested that other allies, such as France and Germany, might send similar notes in support of the base. ¶5. (C) In a September 30 conversation, former MP and opposition leader Temir Sariyev asked the Ambassador how the United States would respond when Manas Air Base was shut down. Ambassador reminded him that Kyrgyzstan is a sovereign country, and that the base is not solely a U.S. facility, but is used by a coalition of countries working in Afghanistan. She also pointed out the security that the base provides for the region. Sariyev jeered that Pakistan was now openly attacking the American military, and he said that the Kyrgyz would soon give the American military a "black eye" by asking BISHKEK 00001015 002.2 OF 002 it to leave their territory. He added tauntingly: "Are you begging the Russians to let you stay? You know that they'll kick you out at the up-coming CIS summit, don't you?" As for the Coalition providing stability for the entire region, he said nonchalantly that Americans will continue their mission in Afghanistan from another location, even if they were forced to leave Manas. Therefore, he argued, the Kyrgyz will not lose any benefits by asking the U.S. military to leave but will gain benefits in having pleased Russia. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) While Karabayev and Sadyrkulov tried to be reassuring about the base, they hedged their bets with carefully chosen words. The concerns raised by Ambassador Skok and ex-MP Sariyev reflect what we continue to hear from others in Bishkek, but they may not have the full story on the government's thinking. We've received mixed signals over the past few days, but the unifying theme is that in the run-up to the CIS Summit in Bishkek, the fate of the base is on everyone's mind. GFOELLER