KYRGYZSTAN UNDER "ENORMOUS PRESSURE" FROM RUSSIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001002 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR KG SUBJECT: KYRGYZSTAN UNDER "ENORMOUS PRESSURE" FROM RUSSIA TO CLOSE MANAS AIR BASE BISHKEK 00001002 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Tatiana C. Gfoeller, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Presidential Chief of Staff Sadyrkulov told the Ambassador October 2 that Kyrgyzstan was under "enormous pressure" from Russia to close Manas Air Base. Sadyrkulov claimed that Russia had cut a deal with Uzbekistan, by which Uzbekistan would push to close the base during the October 10 CIS Summit. Sadyrkulov acknowledged that the base was important for stability in Afghanistan and the region, but he said anger over Georgia and U.S. rhetoric was driving Russia to try to hurt the U.S. by closing the base. Sadyrkulov said that President Bakiyev and the "vast majority" of his ministers and advisors did not want the base to leave. However, if things "go badly" at the CIS Summit, the Kyrgyz might run out of options to resist Russian pressure. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Following a previously scheduled meeting of Kyrgyzstan's Millennium Challenge Account Coordinating Committee, Presidential Chief of Staff Medet Sadyrkulov pulled the Ambassador aside for an urgent one-on-one meeting. Sadyrkulov told the Ambassador that Kyrgyzstan was under "enormous pressure" from Russia to ask the United States to leave Manas Coalition Air Base. Sadyrkulov expected this pressure to come to a head during the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Summit October 10 in Bishkek. ¶3. (C) Sadyrkulov said that President Bakiyev did not want to ask the United States to leave the base, and the "vast majority" of his ministers and advisors also favored keeping the base open. Nevertheless, he said, they might not have a choice. He then warned, "If things go badly (at the Summit), and we ask you to leave, it will not be because we wanted to do it, but because we ran out of options." "You have no idea of the pressure," Sadyrkulov repeated. ¶4. (C) Sadyrkulov said he had learned of a deal between Russia and Uzbekistan, by which Russia would support Uzbekistan in trans-boundary water negotiations, and in return Uzbekistan would act as the stalking horse to push for closure of Manas during the CIS Summit. Sadyrkulov claimed that Putin had earlier met with Karimov to work out the deal, and the Russians had supported Uzbekistan's "unreasonable" position during recent Central Asian water negotiations in Almaty. ¶5. (C) Ambassador pointed out that Manas Air Base was crucial to the ongoing Coalition efforts to stabilize and rebuild Afghanistan, which in turn contributed to stability in Central Asia. Failure in Afghanistan, she said, was not in anyone's interest, including Russia's. Sadyrkulov acknowledged the base's contribution to regional security, and he agreed that stability was also in Russia's interest. However, he said, Russia's anger over Georgia and U.S. rhetoric made it determined to try to hurt the United States, and Manas Air Base was an easy target for them. "Don't underestimate Russia's capacity to do something stupid," he lamented. ¶6. (C) Ambassador told Sadyrkulov that it has been her strategy for the U.S. Mission to keep a low profile in the run up to the CIS Summit, and she asked if there was anything else we could do. Sadyrkulov acknowledged the Ambassador's efforts and agreed that this was the right approach, but, he said, "It might not be enough." ¶7. (C) Comment: Sadyrkulov can be emotional at times, but he appeared genuinely to be under stress -- and he looked exhausted. We do not doubt his claim that there is serious Russian pressure on the Kyrgyz over the base, and he certainly seemed to be laying the groundwork for deflecting blame if the base is closed. During the private meeting, Sadyrkulov went on at length praising the Millennium BISHKEK 00001002 002.2 OF 002 Challenge Account Threshold Program. He said that Bakiyev was committed to the reforms in the program, and he pledged personally to oversee program implementation. In other words, "don't blame us" if and when we ask you to leave -- and "don't punish us" by taking away your other programs. GFOELLER