OSH TRIP: INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION REPS DISCUSS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001000 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON KG SUBJECT: OSH TRIP: INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION REPS DISCUSS SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC ILLS IN KYRGYZSTAN'S SOUTH BISHKEK 00001000 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Tatiana C. Gfoeller, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Ambassador met with representatives of international organizations and donor agencies based in southern Kyrgyzstan during her trip to Osh on September 16-17. The group expressed serious concern about the energy crisis, and also about corruption, social discord, and the failure of political reforms. Group members agreed about Russia's continuing popularity in the south of Kyrgyzstan as well. End Summary. ¶2. (C) During a trip to the southern Osh Oblast, Ambassador held a roundtable meeting September 17 with representatives of international organizations and donor agencies based in Osh. In attendance at the meeting were senior representatives from the OSCE Osh field office, the Agency for Technical Cooperation and Development (ACTED),Mercy Corps, Winrock International, and the Aga Khan Development Fund (AKDF). ORIGINS OF THE ELECTRICITY CRISIS -------------- ¶3. (C) The group quickly agreed that the low water levels in Kyrgyz reservoirs were causing a serious energy crisis in the country. The Mercy Corps rep, who said he had met with officials from the reservoirs, attributed the problem to mismanagement and corruption, as officials knowingly chose to sell electricity despite dangerously low water levels. One member of the group claimed that members of President Bakiyev's family were involved in the electricity sales. The Winrock representative agreed that mismanagement has contributed to the crisis, but added that extended drought, dilapidated infrastructure that loses 30% of water to leaks, and problems getting water users to measure and pay for usage have also played a role. SOCIAL AND ETHNIC DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN SOUTH -------------- ¶4. (C) Members of the group also highlighted persistent social divides in southern Kyrgyzstan. The Winrock rep said that ethnic Uzbeks work hard to maintain a separate identity in Kyrgyzstan, making sure their children learn the Uzbek language and traditions before Russian or Kyrgyz. He said that Kyrgyz try to exclude other ethnic groups from power structures but end up fighting among themselves. He finds groups of mixed ethnicity or even purely Uzbek groups to be the most efficient and business-oriented. The AKDF rep, an ethnic Kyrgyz, disputed this strongly, saying that her organization finds Kyrgyz easy to work with. One member of the group noted that ethnic Russians are continuing to move out of the south and that few remain. FORMAL POLITICAL STRUCTURES CONFUSED AND WEAK -------------- ¶5. (C) The OSCE field office rep said southern businessmen are getting more involved in politics out of fear for their investments, and may clash with one another or with the government in the run-up to local elections on October 5. He has noticed that Chinese businessmen, who normally keep a low profile, are now paying for protection in parliament and other political offices as well. He believes that incumbents will use administrative resources to keep their positions, though many key local posts are filled with pro-Bakiyev politicians outside of the electoral process. The ACTED rep agreed that national attempts at power decentralization have not succeeded in creating clear political structures. The confusion hurts business and encourages corruption. RUSSIA CONTINUES TO BE MOST POPULAR FOREIGN POWER -------------- -------------- BISHKEK 00001000 002.2 OF 002 ¶6. (C) The group concurred that Russia's popularity in the south is strong and growing. The simple presence of a Russian consulate in Osh helps, though its outreach efforts are lackluster and it has become known for corruption itself. One of the group said Russia's popularity is primarily a result of the dominance of Russian television and Putin's strong image. Another said that Russia is seen as a guarantor of security in the region, but is also respected for its investments in banking and telecommunications. The Winrock rep said his contacts see the Russian language as a way to earn more money both in Kyrgyzstan and abroad. ¶7. (C) The representatives all agreed that Russian citizenship is a prized possession in the Kyrgyz Republic and that more and more ethnic Kyrgyz are applying to receive it. One of the representatives, a Frenchman married to an Uzbek, said that this is true throughout Central Asia. His own wife (who is eligible for French citizenship through marriage) had recently applied for and received Russian citizenship. "She told me it was more useful in the FSU than being French," he marveled. ¶8. (C) Comment: The international organization representatives conveyed a host of concerns about life in southern Kyrgyzstan, but they did not expect anything dramatic to happen in the near term with the public tired of political protests. GFOELLER