WELCOME TO BERLIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BERLIN 000879 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL GM SUBJECT: WELCOME TO BERLIN Classified By: AMB William R. Timken, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- -------------- Focusing Germany on Excellent Bilateral Relations -------------- -------------- ¶1. (C) Mr. President: My Mission and I look forward to welcoming you to Germany June 10-11. Your visit is an opportunity to focus the German public on the excellent state of U.S.-German bilateral relations, for which you and Chancellor Merkel should take deserved credit. Our cooperation in meeting common challenges has never been greater -- as exemplified by our strong mutual support for combating terrorism, for deterring Iran's nuclear aspirations, for meeting our shared strategic goals in Afghanistan, for common approaches to transatlantic integration, energy security and climate change, and for independence for Kosovo. Your visit will underline our commitment to resolving the Middle East conflict (where Merkel wants a greater German role),and to sustaining the momentum of the Transatlantic Economic Council (TEC),a major achievement that demonstrated your and the Chancellor's leadership. -------------- Domestic Politics: Merkel Looks to the Future -------------- ¶2. (C) Merkel is focused on the 2009 elections and the challenge of building a durable coalition that will be better able to advance her goals for Germany. The current "grand coalition" between her Christian Democrats (CDU) and the rival Social Democrats (SPD) is a tempestuous marriage of necessity. Merkel would like to use her high personal popularity to build a coalition with more like-minded partners, such as the Free Democrats (FDP). She has become more cautious over time, avoiding any initiatives she believes could undermine her lead in the polls. The result is increasing inertia in Merkel's government in key areas, domestic and foreign. ¶3. (C) Despite her personal commitment to a stronger German role overseas, Merkel believes that pursuing unpopular policies such as a more active German overseas troop presence could scuttle her chances of scoring a decisive victory in the 2009 election. Although many within her CDU and the rival SPD are fairly open minded about enhancing Germany's role in global security, the Chancellor is wary of getting ahead of the German public, which remains strongly opposed to military engagement abroad. -------------- Competition between Merkel and Steinmeier -------------- ¶4. (C) The Chancellor has been ambitious in taking credit for foreign policy successes, such as progress on climate change at the 2007 G-8 summit and institutional reform of the EU. Merkel will launch an effort on the Middle East as well, opening a June 24 conference in support of Palestinian civil security and the rule of law, which she is careful to note she conceived along with Quartet Envoy Tony Blair. There is a domestic element to this as well, as Merkel intentionally seeks to hem in Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor Frank-Walter Steinmeier in the foreign policy arena. Steinmeier is increasingly a political rival to the Chancellor -- he has become the most popular SPD politician and the second most popular overall, trailing only Merkel. It is a reasonable bet that Steinmeier, and not SPD chairman Kurt Beck, could face off against Merkel for the chancellorship next year. -------------- Russia: Merkel Careful Not to Press Too Hard -------------- ¶5. (C) The competition between Merkel and Steinmeier is exemplified by their divergent approaches to Russia. The Chancellor has openly criticized Russia on human rights and made clear that she will hold President Medvedev to his promises to make Russia more transparent. She is reluctant to take a confrontational approach because Medvedev is at the start of his term and also because of fears that the SPD could use Russia policy for political gain. Steinmeier and the SPD miss no opportunity to evoke the legacy of Willy Brandt and detente, elevating dialog and economic engagement with Russia above open expression of disagreement as tools of diplomacy. The Russians have given Steinmeier special access -- he was the first foreign visitor to Medvedev after his BERLIN 00000879 002 OF 003 inauguration. ¶6. (C) Merkel's opposition to Georgia's and Ukraine's immediate entry into NATO's Membership Action Plan (MAP) is partially a reflection of her desire not to press too many demands on Russia at once. Her senior advisers are reluctant to put it in those terms, arguing instead that the case for Georgia and Ukraine is weak on the merits. -------------- -------------- Global Security: Cautious Approach Before Elections -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Merkel expects that the U.S. will not press her on combat troops in Afghanistan for the remainder of your administration. We may be able to encourage a greater German civilian commitment. Merkel's government may seek to raise the current troop ceiling of 3,500 by 500 or 1,000 to give the Bundeswehr more cushion in fulfilling existing obligations, but Merkel will likely resist taking on any additional tasks, especially combat or other activities outside the north. ¶8. (C) Merkel and the Chancellery have consistently toed our common firm line on Iran, most recently in public statements in Israel and Switzerland that signaled an intention to reduce Germany's trade relationship with Iran and indirectly criticized other European countries' reluctance to do so. At the same time, however, the Chancellor has shown diminishing resolve in applying "moral suasion" to rein in Germany's business ties with Iran, in part because of strong resistance from industry, the media, and elements of her own government, which variously question the efficacy of sanctions and worry about losing the Iranian market to competitors from Russia, China, India, and elsewhere. ¶9. (C) Germany is taking a second look at Iraq -- the press reporting has become more balanced, and some German politicians are voicing support for an increase in German economic and commercial engagement in Iraq. The time is right to ask Chancellor Merkel to consider how Germany can provide greater support for institutional development, reconstruction, and increased trade and investment with Iraq. We are working to create a dynamic where greater German trade and investment will raise the German government's stake in stability, development, and political progress in Iraq, leveraging more German official support. -------------- Counterterrorism: Building on Success -------------- ¶10. (C) U.S.-German bilateral cooperation on counter-terrorism (CT) is as close as it has ever been. The new bilateral agreement on fingerprint, DNA and other data sharing that Secretary Chertoff and Interior Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble (CDU) have spearheaded is the latest evidence of this trend. No German senior official pushes as hard, or argues so publicly, for closer bilateral cooperation on security issues as Minister Schaeuble. Merkel herself has been more reticent about speaking out on these issues because of widespread public concerns over privacy, but clearly backs greater CT cooperation with the U.S. -------------- Economics: Commitment to TEC -------------- ¶11. (C) Merkel highly values the U.S.-EU Transatlantic Economic Council (TEC) aimed at reducing regulatory barriers to transatlantic trade and investment -- it was a centerpiece of her 2007 EU presidency. She is concerned, however, about maintaining momentum in the TEC and fears that the European Commission and future EU presidencies (including France) may lose enthusiasm for the project. Germans also worry that a changing U.S. administration could derail what they regard as a highly successful new transatlantic economic instrument. Your visit is an opportunity for you and the Chancellor to emphasize our continued commitment to the TEC, and encourage the Germans to maintain a leading role in it. -------------- Climate Change: Aggressive Measures -------------- ¶12. (C) Chancellor Merkel and the rest of Germany's political leadership remain serious about pursuing aggressive international measures to meet the challenges of global warming. Merkel has made climate change a priority of her BERLIN 00000879 003 OF 003 chancellorship and enjoys overwhelming domestic support for her environmental policies. Merkel's support for mandatory, targeted global limits on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and an international cap-and-trade regime reflects a deep-seated belief that only drastic, mandated efforts on the part of the international community can slow -- and ultimately reverse -- the human contribution to global warming. Merkel may recognize how forward-leaning the U.S. is in practice, but she will continue to push for more on combating climate change. Yet it is worth noting that Germany's climate change agenda -- e.g., closure of nuclear power plants, reduction of emissions from coal plants -- may very well undermine its energy security objectives, notably diversification of energy supplies, as it could ultimately increase German dependence upon Russian oil and gas. -------------- Conclusion -------------- ¶13. (U) Mr. President, the Embassy will move at the end of May to our permanent and historic pre-World War II location next to the Brandenburg Gate in the heart of Berlin. Our new Embassy, which your father, former President Bush, will help us open on July 4, is a potent symbol of our strong bilateral partnership. We will celebrate this historic event on Pariser Platz with 4,500 invited guests. Your father and Chancellor Merkel are the two keynote speakers. ¶14. (U) It has also become clear that the economic integration of our two countries is far greater and more important than is commonly understood. Our Mission is collecting the facts and this fall we will make the case publicly. As an example, more than 1,500,000 American and German jobs depend on this relationship; we will almost certainly determine the number to be significantly higher. It would be helpful if you and the Chancellor could highlight the benefits to the American and German people of this vibrant economic relationship. We look forward to welcoming you in June to recognize these successes and prepare the ground for further successes together in the Administration's sprint to the finish. TIMKEN JR