GERMANY SHARES U.S. CONCERNS REGARDING RUSSIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 000492

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (ADDED MCN)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2018
TAGS: PREL GG RS GM
SUBJECT: GERMANY SHARES U.S. CONCERNS REGARDING RUSSIAN
UPGRADE IN RELATIONS WITH ABKHAZIA AND SOUTH OSSETIA

REF: STATE 40673

Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR JEFF RATHKE. REASONS: 1.4 (
B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. German officials at both the MFA and the
Chancellery share U.S. concerns regarding recent Russian
presidential instructions issued in regard to Abkhazia and
South Ossetia, and are open to delivering a joint demarche
with the U.S. and others to Moscow on the matter. Meanwhile,
the Germans expect the EU presidency to issue a statement
today (April 18),which might be followed up by an EU
demarche. The MFA Director for Eastern Europe, Caucasus and
Central Asia looks forward to further coordination on this
matter at the April 21 Quad meeting in London, where the U.S.
will be represented by EUR DAS David Merkel. END SUMMARY.

Chancellery on Same Page as U.S.
--------------


2. (C) DCM delivered reftel points to Deputy National
Security Advisor Rolf Nikel at the Chancellery April 18,
emphasizing U.S. concerns that the new Russian "mechanisms"
designed to protect the rights of Russian citizens in
Abkhazia and South Ossetia constituted a challenge to
Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The U.S.
hoped Germany would join it in raising these concerns with
Russia.


3. (C) Nikel said he thought the U.S. and Germany were "on
the same page" regarding this matter. He emphasized that
Germany is also very concerned about the recent Russian
moves, views them as creating a risk of further escalation,
and believes Russia needs to change its approach. He
promised Germany would be clear about full support for
Georgian sovereignty and territorial integrity.


4. (C) Nikel said the Chancellery believes that Germany, as
coordinator of the group of western friends, should organize
a common demarche in Moscow to express strong concern
regarding the Russian action and to tell Russia it needs to
change its approach. Nikel did not indicate whether this
would include rescinding the presidential instructions. He
said the aim would be to convince Moscow to change course,
and he thought a joint demarche would be more effective in
this regard. He said the EU presidency was also working on a
statement that would be released soon.


5. (C) Finally, he noted that a senior Georgian government
representative from Tbilisi was scheduled to see him later
today (April 18) and was supposedly bringing "creative ideas"
that he (the Georgian) did not want to discuss on the phone.
(Comment: Post will follow up with Nikel on this early next
week and report septel as appropriate. End Comment.)

MFA Engaged
--------------


6. (C) Political Minister Counselor also delivered reftel
points to MFA Director General for Eastern Europe, Caucasus
and Central Asia Hans-Dieter Lucas April 18. Lucas noted
that he had just returned from Moscow the day before and had
raised these same concerns at the Russian MFA right before
the presidential instructions were issued April 16. Lucas
said he had told the Russians that Germany saw a direct
contradiction between this course of action and Russia's
commitment to Georgian territorial integrity in the UN peace
process. Lucas said he had also pointed out that such a move
would undermine Russia's facilitator role in that process.


7. (C) Lucas said the Russians insisted that these
"mechanisms" were not an attempt at creeping annexation and
that Russia had no intention of recognizing Abkhazia or South
Ossetia. Rather, the intent of these new instructions was

simply to facilitate economic development of the two
provinces. The Russia MFA noted that the government was
under extreme pressure from the Duma to do more in this
regard, with some criticizing the government for not have
recognized the independence of the two provinces right from
the very start. Lucas said the Russians had also claimed
that Russia was standing by its commitment not to supply
weapons to Abkhazia or South Ossetia.

Red Lines for Russian Recognition
--------------


8. (C) Lucas said he also raised this matter with the Russian
MFA director of policy planning, who is reportedly close to
FM Lavrov. According to Lucas, this official said that there
were only two scenarios under which Russia would recognize
the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia: 1) if Georgia
became a NATO member (the official did not specify whether
that extended to the NATO membership action plan or only
membership itself) or 2) if Georgia employed military force
in the provinces. Lucas felt confident that Russia, in fact,
would not recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia unless one of
these two events came to pass. He noted that Putin had made
it clear in public statements that Russia was not going to
"make the same mistake" the West had made in recognizing
Kosovo. Putin rarely went back on his public pronouncements.


Advising Restraint from Georgia
--------------


9. (C) Lucas also noted that he just seen the Georgian
ambassador and that he had emphasized to him that Georgia had
the full support of the international community and should
therefore not jeopardize that support by doing something
"stupid" and responding to Russian provocations. Lucas noted
that there were rumors of Georgia troop movements, so it was
critical to urge the Georgians not to do anything militarily.


Next Steps
--------------


10. (C) Lucas confirmed that the EU presidency was currently
working on a public statement expressing concerns about the
Russia action that should be released today (April 18).
Rather than issue its own statement on a national basis,
Lucas said Germany would probably just make reference to the
EU statement. Lucas said it was possible the EU would follow
up with a joint demarche in Moscow. Lucas was also open to
Germany joining the group of western friends in doing
something jointly. Lucas noted that he would meet his quad
counterparts, including EUR DAS David Merkel, in London April
21, where next steps could be discussed further.
TIMKEN JR