CONTINUED GERMAN SUPPORT ON SERBIA AND KOSOVO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 000327 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2018 TAGS: PREL GM KV SUBJECT: CONTINUED GERMAN SUPPORT ON SERBIA AND KOSOVO REF: BERLIN 212 Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR JEFF RATHKE. REASONS: 1.4 ( B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: Since Kosovo declared independence February 17, Germany has pressed Serb government leaders both publicly and privately to tone down the negative rhetoric and prevent violence, while privately urging "reasonable" Serbs to focus on European integration. It has also actively encouraged EU member states to recognize Kosovo and support the fledgling government. While some members of the Bundestag (parliament) have expressed concerns about the viability of Kosovo, most are taking a wait-and-see approach. Balkan watchers at the German MFA believe that the road may be long and difficult and that the West should ensure there are no doubts about its resolve to oppose destabilizing steps by Serbia. End Summary. Standing Firm Against Serb Aggression -------------- ¶2. (C) Since the attacks in Belgrade on foreign embassies, Germany has attempted to maintain a balance between continued outreach to "reasonable, EU-leaning" politicians in Serbia, while refraining from "too forward-leaning" statements on eventual Serbian membership in the EU (in contrast to Sweden and France),according to Wenke Crudopf, Serbia desk officer at the MFA. MFA Office Director for the Balkans Joachim Bleicker told us that Serb misbehavior would not be tolerated. Bleicker specifically called for a strong stance with respect to northern Kosovo and continued Serb efforts to destabilize the situation. "They are testing us and our resolve" he noted. "If we do not act together robustly now, the Serb side will feel emboldened." And for Kosovo Independence and Sovereignty -------------- ¶3. (C) On March 12, FM Steinmeier stated publicly in clear terms that Serbs in Kosovo should not be permitted to participate in the upcoming Serbian elections in May because "they belong to the state of Kosovo." To defend Kosovo's territorial integrity, Bleicker noted that Germany was looking to send customs officials as part of UNMIK to control the northern border of Kosovo with Serbia, and expressed frustration at the pace of movement to get UNMIK back in place at their checkpoints. He also noted that on March 6 the German cabinet had approved the participation of up to 180 German policemen in the EULEX mission in Kosovo and that Germany wants to be seen as a leader in expanding the justice and police missions to Kosovo. Bleicker also mentioned that Germany has been aggressively demarching many EU capitals to recognize Kosovo independence as quickly possible, and noted that Bulgaria, Hungary, and the Czech Republic were "dragging their feet." Germany has also demarched all OIC countries and hopes a "wave of recognitions" will result from the March 13-14 OIC meeting in Dakar. Regarding the economic development of Kosovo, he admitted the challenges were daunting, but held out hope that the Donor's Conference in June will jump-start trade and investment in Kosovo. Some Concern Just Below the Surface -------------- ¶4. (C) FM Steinmeier has engaged his Social Democratic Party (SPD) colleagues in the Bundestag and been largely successful in keeping a lid on SPD bellyaching for now, although a few have remained critical. Having the popular Foreign Minister largely in the lead on Kosovo has helped keep most SPD detractors at bay and supportive of the government's position. According to Harald Berwanger, SPD Foreign Policy Advisor, however, Steinemeier "wasn't able to erase all doubts" and there is some grumbling about relying on UNSCR 1244 as the basis for the international presence in Kosovo. For example, in a February 23 article in the newsweekly "Der Spiegel," SPD Bundestag members Niels Annen and Johannes Jung expressed skepticism about the Kosovo status process and noted that "there were only bad decisions made about the Kosovo's status question, including recognition." Berwanger noted that it "will now come down to how things progress. If things improve, fine; if the situation deteriorates, then we should be prepared for increased criticism." ¶5. (C) Berwanger went on to note that the far-left Left Party is still weighing whether it will challenge the government's action on Kosovo in the Constitutional Court, and that the decision will likely come down to how things proceed on the ground in Kosovo. Specifically, the Left Party may argue that that UNSCR 1244 no longer provides a sufficient legal basis for continued German participation in KFOR since the legal status of Kosovo has changed. The BERLIN 00000327 002 OF 002 German MFA has been expecting this challenge from the Left Party and is already prepared to respond. Germany Presses Partners to Play Positive Role -------------- - ¶6. (C) All contacts noted that Germany is actively pressuring other countries to join the newly created Kosovo Steering Group (KSG) or be a "positive force" in Kosovo's future. Germany is also pressing the countries through the EU and bilaterally to act more swiftly in providing the full range of needed assistance to Kosovo, including police, trainers, additional troops, as well as urging recognition (in what the Germans describe as "remarkably strong terms") by the remaining EU countries, including Kosovo's strongest EU detractors such as Spain and Greece. German diplomats are raising the issue at every opportunity, we were told, especially now that the situation in Serbia is shakier than ever. According to Crudopf, the May elections in Serbia increase uncertainty about Belgrade's relationship with the EU. However, they will have no effect on Germany's efforts to be a positive force within the EU, the KSG, and the Western Balkans as a whole. TIMKEN JR