KEY ELECTIONS MAY REVEAL DIRECTION OF GERMANY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 000022 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL GM SUBJECT: KEY ELECTIONS MAY REVEAL DIRECTION OF GERMANY REF: A. 06 HAMBURG 65 ¶B. 06 FRANKFURT 4380 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission John Koenig for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Germany is now gearing up for three state-level elections in January and February that will be seen as a barometer for political trends in advance of the 2009 national elections. At a time when the national Grand Coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is fraying at the edges, these elections will gauge the popularity of the CDU against the increasingly left-leaning approach of the SPD, spearheaded by SPD chairman Kurt Beck. The elections will also test the long-term leadership potential of two popular CDU ministers-president: Hessen's Roland Koch and Lower Saxony's Christian Wulff, and could strongly influence SPD decision-making as to whether Beck will be its party candidate for chancellor in 2009. Further, coalition-building discussions in the aftermath of these elections could generate new models for use at the national level, including the possibility of a precedent-setting CDU coalition that includes the Greens. End summary. The Outlook -------------- ¶2. (C) With the Grand Coalition partners at the federal level increasingly engaged in partisan politics, the state elections in Hessen and Lower Saxony on January 27 and in Hamburg on February 24 are of daily concern to the parties' leadership and are viewed as litmus tests for the 2009 national elections. The outcome of these elections could hinge largely on national issues -- such as the minimum wage and integration of immigrants -- rather than purely local ones. Merkel's CDU and Beck's SPD see these elections as a vote on the direction of their parties and perhaps indirectly on the national leadership. Beck seems finally to have found a strategy that resonates with a majority of Germans: economic justice (or populism, depending on whom you ask). His efforts to extend the duration of unemployment benefits to older workers and to extend minimum wages more broadly have struck a positive chord in Germany. These state elections are the first since Beck solidified his leadership position within the SPD and formulated the populist strategy, and will determine if Beck's new approach is actually paying off. ¶3. (C) The state elections may also serve as laboratories for potential new coalitions, which could later be replicated on the national level. The CDU is currently governing alone in Hessen and Hamburg and in partnership with the Free Democrats (FDP) in Lower Saxony. Recent polls indicate that, while the CDU probably still will receive the largest number of votes in all three states, it will not garner enough to govern alone. If this is the case, its preference will be to seek coalitions with the FDP in all three states. A renewal of the CDU-FDP coalition in Lower Saxony appears likely, but the outlook for the CDU is perhaps most problematic in Hamburg and Hessen, where coalitions of SPD, Greens, and The Left might theoretically be able to form governments. Although all parties have told us that such a leftist coalition would not occur -- the Greens, as well as the SPD, are against it -- the prospect has motivated the CDU in Hamburg to seriously examine options beyond the FDP, such as a partnership with the Greens. A CDU coalition with the Greens would be a first at the state level and could also test the waters for such a coalition at the national level. Will the CDU's Future Leaders Survive Unscathed? -------------- --- ¶4. (C) Lower Saxony and Hessen are home to two of the most influential CDU politicians after Chancellor Merkel, Christian Wulff and Roland Koch, both of whom harbor chancellorship ambitions. Not only will the same-day elections in both states test the popularity of Merkel's two main rivals within her own party, but they may also be seen as a comparative measure of Wulff's and Koch's popularity. Both have struggled with lower poll ratings than they enjoyed in their previous election campaigns and have had to modify their strategies accordingly. Koch has taken a tough stance against immigrant criminality in order to solidify his conservative base and draw attention away from the SPD's minimum wage campaign. Wulff has taken a different approach, expressing openness to establishing a greater number of industry-specific minimum wages, a popular issue among Germans. Barring unexpected surges in the polls, both Koch and Wulff are expected to continue as ministers-president, but Koch most likely will do so in a weakened position. BERLIN 00000022 002 OF 002 Likely Rise of The Left in the West -------------- ¶5. (C) The Left party appears likely to garner the votes needed to cross the threshold and enter the parliaments of Hesse and Hamburg, as it did in Bremen in 2007. The Left party's support base has largely been in the eastern German states, but the party has now broadened its reach to include mainly male, economically disaffected voters in the west, eating into the traditional constituencies of the SPD. It appears that one of the only options for the SPD in Hessen and Hamburg to enter government would be forming a coalition that includes The Left (or a minority coalition "tolerated" by The Left),something the SPD national-level leadership has ruled out. Frank-Walter Steinmeier (Vice-Chancellor, Foreign Minister, and Deputy SPD Chairman) and state-level SPD top candidates have reiterated recently the party leadership's long-standing opposition to a potential alliance with The Left. Without such a coalition partnership, however, it is highly doubtful that the SPD could govern in these states. If the SPD succumbs to the necessity of state-level alliances with The Left in western states, it is possible that a national SPD-The Left partnership could follow in the longer term (but most likely not in 2009). Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) At times in the past, state-level elections have precipitated major political developments on the national level. Gerhard Schroeder's resounding victory in Lower Saxony's 1998 state election gave him momentum that soon thereafter propelled him into the chancellorship. Conversely, the SPD's 2005 loss in North-Rhine Westphalia -- until then considered an SPD stronghold -- began the process that eventually led to the fall of the national SPD-Green coalition. This year's trio of early-2008 state elections also has the potential to influence the national political landscape with a view to 2009 national elections. Although Merkel's position as chancellor or the Grand Coalition she leads are not in immediate danger, the state elections could very well affect the overall strength of the major parties and the prospects of their new crop of leaders, while also possibly altering the calculus of future national coalition-building. ¶7. (U) This cable was coordinated with CG Frankfurt and CG Hamburg. KOENIG