MOMENTUM FOR UNSC REFORM SUBDUED IN GERMANY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 000209 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC GM SUBJECT: MOMENTUM FOR UNSC REFORM SUBDUED IN GERMANY Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Jeffrey Rathke for reasons 1.4(b)/(d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Although momentum seemed to pick up last year for German leadership on the issue of UNSC reform, the German Foreign Ministry does not predict significant forward momentum on this issue in the coming year, primarily for reasons to do with the UN meeting calendar and planning logistics. Nevertheless, German officials say that "Germany is ready to assume responsibility" should moves toward UNSC reform lend favor to a German seat at the table. In a meeting with MFA UN Deputy Head of Division Holger Mahnicke, PolOff discussed current thinking within the GoG concerning UNSC reform and plausible scenarios in which Germany might become a member of the UNSC. Mahnicke maintains that the German focus is not/not on gaining permanent membership to the UNSC, but rather on overall reform that better reflects the realities of global power in today's world. End summary. -------------- GERMANY LEADS 'OVERARCHING GROUP' FOR REFORM -------------- ¶2. (C) In the latter half of last year, momentum seemed to pick up with respect to moves toward UNSC reform and the push for German membership on the UNSC. According o Holger Mahnicke, who works in the UN Division f the German Foreign Ministry, Germany took the ead on organizing a working group within the UN o discuss possible ways forward with "interim soltions" to UNSC reform. The issue had been on the ack burner following the failure of the G-4 refom proposal at the 2005 World Summit. (Note: Mahicke expressed the view, which seems representatve of general thinking in the German government, that the failure of this proposal was due in relatively equal parts to disagreements about the proposal among the African block and the active lobbying by the USG against this proposal. End Note.) ¶3. (C) Mahnicke said that Germany organized a meeting in December 2007 of an "Overarching Group" that would field draft texts on interim solutions to UNSC reform, with the hope that these could be presented to all member states for review and discussion. Although he described this group as "open" to any member state that wished to observe the proceedings, select member states were invited to the last meeting. When PolOff asked whether the U.S. was one of those states, he said he could not confirm whether the U.S. had been invited, but noted the U.S. did not attend this meeting. When asked about the relationship between this group and the "Working Group" that had been previously organized for this purpose, Mahnicke said that Germany wanted to find a way for member states to evaluate and discuss reform proposals without being bound to the full consensus on proposals, which would be required in the Working Group. The Overarching Group was developed as a forum where draft proposals could be explored and then put directly to member states for consideration. ¶4. (C) However, Mahnicke said that due to the limited time left on the current UNGA's calendar, it was unlikely that drafts of reform proposals would be ready for member states to consider in the first half of 2008. For that reason, he speculated that although "pressure (for reform) will continue", the issue of UNSC reform would likely simmer on the back burner for the near future. -------------- --- REFORM SHOULD REFLECT CURRENT POWER RELATIONSHIP -------------- --- ¶5. (C) Mahnicke said that much of Germany's interest in UNSC membership stems from developments in the early 1990s, when other countries who raised the issue of reform pointed to Germany as a possible prospective member. Even now, Mahnicke reiterated that "Germany is ready to assume responsibility in the UNSC", but characterized it as an interest developed from and legitimized from outside the German government. Earlier, many Germans had been reluctant to view itself as playing a major role in global security decisions. ¶6. (C) Even now, Mahnicke said that Germany's goal is not/not permanent membership, but rather to reform the UNSC in ways that would better reflect current global power relations. He recognized concerns about geographic representation, and the complaint by many within the African block about too many seats being allocated to EU member states. He also noted that differences of opinion about UNSC reform within the EU, notably with Italy, still need BERLIN 00000209 002 OF 002 examination and resolution. ¶7. (C) When asked what role the German government could realistically envision the USG playing on the issue of UNSC reform, Mahnicke said that for the U.S. to "talk publicly about it" and to continue to raise the issue -- as President Bush did in his 2007 address to UNGA -- is helpful. As a caveat, however, he noted German concerns about President Bush's singling out one country, Japan, in his comments about UNSC reform. While a variety of options of reform proposals are on the table, Mahincke said it was not helpful for the process to single countries out. That aside, Germany welcomes moves by USG officials to publicly stress the need for reform. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) In post's view, Germany does not show signs of emerging as a forceful leader on the issue of UNSC reform. For ideological reasons, Germany will remain committed to the reform agenda -- but more because it views itself as a committed multilateralist and less because it wants to be a forerunner on global security issues (a fact which has been evidenced by Germany's decision-making on other foreign policy issues lately). Moreover, it looks unlikely that UNSC reform will become a factor in German domestic politics in the next year. There is some political and public obligation incumbent on Chancellor Merkel to continue to raise the issue, since she mentioned it in her speech to UNGA in 2007 and raised it in her meeting with President Bush in October ¶2007. We can only presume that Chancellor Merkel remains engaged in dialogue on this issue with fellow G-4 partners, as well. However, given that it is not likely to be a major source of domestic political capital, the issue of a German UNSC seat may continue to languish as Germany heads into national elections in 2009. TIMKEN JR