GERMANS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT RELATIONS WITH POLAND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BERLIN 001663

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EPET SENV PL GM
SUBJECT: GERMANS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT RELATIONS WITH POLAND
FOLLOWING CONSULTATIONS

REF: A. WARSAW 01395

B. WARSAW 01392

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES JOHN KOENIG FOR REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (
D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. MFA and Chancellery contacts viewed Polish
Foreign Minister Sikorski's visit to Berlin on December 5-6
and the bilateral government consultations in Warsaw on
December 8 as the culmination of a year's worth of hard work
by both countries to improve relations. However, Germany is
wary of Sikorski,s potential emergence as a candidate to be
the next NATO Secretary General. Overall, contacts viewed
current relations with Poland as "constructive" and
"issue-oriented" rather than being bogged down by history.
Despite this upbeat perspective, MFA contacts voiced the
concern that the controversy surrounding the new German
Foundation for Refugees and Expellees will tarnish relations.
On the policy side, the EU's Climate Change and Energy
Package remained a source of contention during the
consultations in Warsaw, but MFA officials hoped that the
consultations had decreased the likelihood that Poland would
"veto" the package at the December 11-12 EU Summit.
Steinmeier and Sikorski in Berlin focused on the EU's new
Eastern Partnership, including a short discussion of how to
handle Russia in the context of that partnership. The
consultations addressed additional topics, including several
anniversaries in 2009. Steinmeier and Sikorski did not meet
much during the consultations in Warsaw as they had a full
calendar together last week in Berlin. Seven ministers from
Germany attended the consultation: foreign
affairs, defense, interior, economic affairs, environment,
education, and health.

German Reluctance on a Pole as the Next NATO SecGen


2. (C) Notwithstanding Sikorski's recent efforts to take a
more balanced approach toward Russia (ref A),German MFA
contacts describe him as "hawkish" and too hard on Russia.
MOD Director of Public Policy Ulrich Schlie (please protect)
asked Charge on December 10 that the U.S. not push Sikorski
as a candidate for NATO Secretary General. Although Hartmann
was unwilling to state MFA's opposition to a potential
Sikorski candidacy, Hartmann argued that Sikorski had too
many important duties in Warsaw to move to Brussels.
Hartmann acknowledged that Sikorski would be a "credible and
natural candidate" given his background as defense minister
and current position, but emphasized that Germany would have
to evaluate the candidacy carefully. At this time, Poland
had not approached Germany regarding Sikorski as a candidate,
according to Hartmann. Sikorski said in an interview to a
German paper during his visit to Berlin that he was not
campaigning for the job, but argued that selecting a new
Secretary General from eastern Europe would send "the right
signal."

MOVING FORWARD WITHOUT CONSTANTLY LOOKING BACKWARD


3. (C) Contacts in Berlin and Warsaw (ref B) viewed the
positive atmospherics during Sikorski's visit and the
consultations as symbolizing the increased tendency for
German-Polish relations to be pragmatic and issue-oriented
rather than focusing on history, which dominated bilateral
relations under former Polish Prime Minister Jaroslaw
Kaczynski. MFA and Chancellery contacts emphasized that
Chancellor Merkel had visited Poland four times this year.
In addition, they pointed to the first bilateral
consultations occurring in roughly three years, the first
awarding of the German-Polish Prize to NGOs for assisting
bilateral relations since 2006, and the first joint speech by
the German and Polish Foreign Ministers to the German-Polish
Forum since 2006.


4. (C) Moreover, Steinmeier and Sikorski on December 5
welcomed the European Court of Human Rights September
decision to reject the Prussian Trust's compensation claims
for property lost by German post-WWII expellees from Poland.
Steinmeier said this resolved the issue and "there are no
open property claims between Poland and Germany," according
to MFA Deputy Division Head for Central Europe Frank
Hartmann. Hartmann informed poloff that the MFA viewed this
decision as a symbol of relations "focusing on the future."
Significant progress also was made on a joint history
textbook, which MFA and Polish Embassy contacts expect to be
ready as early as 2011 and no later than 2013. Hartmann
related that the MFA overall considers the "firm" German
response to the war in Georgia as helping to overcome the
Polish suspicion that Germany "plays the old Russia card" or
is too soft on Russia.


5. (C) This pragmatic approach was somewhat weakened by the

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controversy surrounding the new German Foundation for
Refugees and Expellees, whose establishment the Bundestag
formally approved on December 4. Polish concern centers
around "one specific person attached to the project," as
Sikorski put it at a public event on December 5.
Specifically, Bundestag Member Erika Steinbach (CDU) has a
position on the Foundation's board, but she is also the
president of an organization for German expellees, which has
often irritated the Poles in the past. Although Polish
Embassy contacts argued that they were largely neutral on the
Foundation itself, Steinbach's presence reflects a larger
disagreement over how the historical issues should be
addressed. Although the MFA appears prepared to support
Steinbach's removal, Chancellor Merkel opposed such a move,
according to Hartmann.

EU CLIMATE CHANGE PACKAGE


6. (C) Chancellery Senior Director for Security Affairs Geza
von Geyr told Charge that the private discussion between
Chancellor Merkel and Prime Minister Tusk (with one
interpreter) ran almost 75 minutes long, forcing the larger
plenary session to be shortened. The central theme in the
private discussion was the EU climate change package, where
some progress was made. Merkel and Tusk did not discuss
Russia nor missile defense, according to von Geyr.


7. (C) German Embassy officials in Warsaw reported that
Merkel and Tusk laid out their respective
positions and "did not negotiate" on the EU package. Tusk
continued to push for a "solidarity mechanism," which would
allow governments to use EU funds to finance modernization of
the energy sector, according to Embassy Warsaw. Berlin
remained opposed to the proposal, according to Hartmann.
However, Hartmann related that tension regarding power plants
eased somewhat, approaching a solution where old
Polish coal power plants would have a "derogation period",
while new German clean and more expensive power plants would
be protected from cheap Polish energy. The larger plenary
meeting was friendly and relaxed, and the climate package
remained the focus of the discussion, according to Embassy
Warsaw.

Launching the Eastern Partnership and Addressing Russia


8. In Berlin, Steinmeier and Sikorski discussed the
Polish-Swedish proposal for a new Eastern Partnership (EP),
which the European Commission has endorsed. According the
Hartmann, the EP would not replace the European Neighborhood
Policy (ENP),but rather serve as a tool for implementing
ENP. Hartmann informed poloff that the EP will receive 350
million euros for programs, but an early draft contained a
figure of 600 million, which the Poles would prefer.
According to Hartmann, the larger figure does not fit into
the EU's current fiscal framework (through 2013). Germany
would be willing to discuss increasing funding in 2011, when
a new budget is negotiated. Although Hartmann recognized
that 350 million for the proposed six countries in EP is not
a large amount, he argued that current financial conditions
limit funds.


9. (C) Steinmeier and Sikorski only addressed Russia in the
context of the EP, according to Hartmann. Steinmeier
proposed that Russia be included in "sectoral possibilities"
in the EP. For instance, the EP could help improve the
modernization of a border crossing at Kaliningrad, which
Sikorski agreed was in Poland's interest. Sikorski also gave
a newspaper interview in Berlin, where he addressed Russian
President Medvedev's proposal for a new European security
architecture. Sikorski said it would be a mistake to replace
a functioning security system, which had given Poland freedom
and stability, with something nebulous and ill-defined. He
also said that the Russians should be reminded that their new
proposal would not liberate them from their obligations under
the OSCE, CFE and COE.

Celebrating Anniversaries in 2009


10. (C) The consultations set several dates for
commemorating next year's many anniversaries, according to
MFA contacts here and in Warsaw. Representatives from
Solidarity will come to Berlin in February to celebrate the
first roundtable in former East Germany. Plans are underway
for a memorial to be placed in the Reichstag building,
recognizing the Polish contribution to the fall of the Wall,
but contacts were uncertain as to whether the unveiling would
occur in February or later in the spring. Merkel also will
travel to Warsaw on June 4 to celebrate the anniversary of
the first free elections in eastern Europe after the fall of
communism. Merkel will travel to Gdansk on September 1 for
the 70th anniversary of the onset of WWII.

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Financial Crisis, Children of Divorced Parents


11. (C) According to German diplomats in Warsaw, there was
no discussion of the Nordstream pipeline or Polish access to
the German labor market. Merkel and Tusk reportedly
discussed the financial crisis and Polish-German child
custody disputes that have been featured prominently in the
Polish press. Merkel and Tusk remained opposed to
large-scale stability packages at this time. German
diplomats in Warsaw said Germany is headed for the deepest
recession in the post-WWII era, which will have a significant
effect on the Polish economy. Merkel and Tusk briefly
discussed the eight child custody disputes that have been
featured in the press, where German courts have not permitted
Polish parents to speak with their children during supervised
visits because of kidnapping concerns and the lack of
Polish-speaking German social workers. Both sides agreed the
issue is "relatively minor" given that there only have been
eight cases out of the approximately 100,000 Polish-German
marriages in the past 15 years.


12. (U) This message was coordinated with Embassy Warsaw.
Koenig