GERMANY FORMALLY SCALES DOWN PARTICIPATION IN OEF

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001549

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2018
TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV AF GM
SUBJECT: GERMANY FORMALLY SCALES DOWN PARTICIPATION IN OEF
TO JUST MARITIME OPERATIONS

REF: A. BERLIN 1413

B. BERLIN 1387

Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR JEFF RATHKE. REASONS: 1.4 (
B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. A new parliamentary mandate significantly
reduces the geographic area in which German armed forces are
allowed to operate under OEF and reduces the troop ceiling by
almost half. As a result, German military forces will no
longer have the ability to participate in combat operations
under OEF in Afghanistan. While the changes in the mandate
may be symbolically important, they will have little or no
practical effect on the ground in Afghanistan or elsewhere,
given Germany's already limited participation in OEF over the
past several years. Chancellor Merkel's CDU had long
championed the controversial provision for deploying up to
100 German Special Forces (KSK) to Afghanistan under OEF, but
relented on this in the face of growing pressure from its SPD
coalition partners. Despite the removal of the controversial
KSK element, a notable number of SPD parliamentarians defied
their party leadership and voted against the mandate,
reflecting the OEF's maligned reputation in Germany and a
growing desire to "regularize" OEF and mandate it through a
UNSCR. END SUMMARY.

SCALING DOWN THE MANDATE


2. (C) The Bundestag renewed on November 13 the parliamentary
mandate that authorizes the Bundeswehr to participate in
Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) and NATO's Operation Active
Endeavor (OAE),but as proposed by the Grand Coalition
government, significantly reduced the geographic area in
which German forces are allowed to operate under OEF. South
and Central Asia (including Afghanistan),the Arabian
peninsula and Northeast Africa were removed from the mandate,
leaving just the Horn of Africa and surrounding waters. In
addition, the overall troop ceiling was reduced from 1,400 to
800 and the controversial authorization to deploy up to 100
German Special Forces (KSK) was eliminated. This means that
Germany's participation in OEF is now restricted solely to
maritime operations. German military forces no longer have
the ability to participate in combat operations under OEF in
Afghanistan. The mandate was extended for 13 months (rather
than the normal 12) so that it will not come up for debate
and renewal until after the September 2009 parliamentary
elections and the new Bundestag is seated.

LIMITED PRACTICAL EFFECTS


3. (C) While these changes in the mandate may be symbolically
important, they should have little or no practical effect on
current German contributions to OEF operations in Afghanistan
or elsewhere. Only 90 German military personnel are
currently deployed under the OEF mandate: 24 in OAE in the
Mediterranean and the rest in OEF maritime operations around
the Horn of Africa. Even when Germany takes over TF-150 in
January and re-deploys a frigate (currently it has only P-3
Orion aircraft under OEF),its total contingent will be far
under the new troop ceiling of 800. In recent years, the
Bundeswehr has not had more than 200-300 military personnel
under OEF at any given time. The Germans have reportedly not
deployed their Special Forces under OEF since 2002-03, which
was one of the arguments used by OEF skeptics to push for
eliminating this part of the parliamentary mandate. They
claimed it made no sense to continue a "virtual mandate" that
was not used.

THE POLITICS BEHIND THE CHANGES


4. (C) In spite of the fact that the KSK has not been
deployed to Afghanistan under OEF for quite some time,
Chancellor Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) had long
insisted on retaining this element in the mandate to
demonstrate Germany's continued commitment to the war on
terrorism. However, in the face of growing pressure from its
Social Democratic Party (SPD) coalition partners
(particularly FM Steinmeier),who argued that retaining the
controversial KSK element was undermining SPD rank-and-file
support for the Bundeswehr's deployment in Afghanistan under
ISAF, the CDU relented and agreed to its elimination in early
September.


5. (C) Chancellery sources claim that in return, Steinmeier

has given assurances that he will rally his party in support
of a future parliamentary mandate to allow the Bundeswehr to
participate in the planned NATO AWACS mission to Afghanistan.
Of course, this quid pro quo was not mentioned in the
government documents sent the Bundestag. The official
government justification for reducing the OEF troop ceiling
and eliminating the KSK element was that this was in line
with the general "shift in center of gravity in Afghanistan
from OEF to ISAF."

ANALYSIS OF THE VOTE


6. (C) The scaled-down OEF mandate was approved with a large
majority in the Bundestag, 428-130, with 8 abstentions and 40
no-shows. The bulk of the "no" votes came from the Greens
and the Left Party who, as in past years, voted in block
against the mandate. On the other hand, both the CDU and the
opposition Free Democratic Party (FDP) voted overwhelmingly
in favor of the mandate, with only a handful of "no" votes.


7. (C) Despite the removal of the controversial KSK element,
a notable number of SPD parliamentarians (25 out of the
222-member caucus) defied their party leadership and voted
against the mandate. While the number of SPD defections is
down from last spring's vote on deploying Tornado aircraft
(69) and last fall's OEF mandate (42),it is still
significantly above what had been the norm as recently as
2005, when only SPD parliamentarian opposed mandate renewal.


8. (C) This upward trend in SPD opposition to the mandate
reflects first and foremost the fact that the OEF brand name
in Germany has been badly (and unfairly) maligned in recent
years. It has become common to attribute almost every
problem in Afghanistan, especially civilian casualties, to
OEF, even though the bulk of combat operations in Afghanistan
have been conducted under ISAF since 2006. The increasing
opposition to the mandate also reflects the wide-spread view
among left-of-center political forces that seven years after
9/11, it is time to "regularize" OEF and have it mandated
through a UN Security Council Resolution, rather than for it
to continue to be legally based on the self-defense
provisions of Article 51 of the UN Charter.
TIMKEN JR