GERMANY GOES INTO RECESSION, SMALL STIMULUS ON THE WAY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 001538 STATE FOR EEB(NELSON),EEB/OMA(SAKAUE, WHITTINGTON),DRL/ILCSR AND EUR/AGS LABOR FOR ILAB(BRUMFIELD) TREASURY FOR ICN(KOHLER),IMB(MURDEN, MONROE, CARNES) AND OASIA SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EFIN ECON GM SUBJECT: GERMANY GOES INTO RECESSION, SMALL STIMULUS ON THE WAY REF: LEIPZIG 00019,BERLIN 1476 ¶1. SUMMARY. Germany has slid into recession, and major indicators point to a further deterioration. There are few signs of a turnaround in 2009. As manufacturing orders dry up and industrial output sputters, German companies are bracing for a rough ride. Despite the negative trends, however, some German companies are reporting increased earnings, and Germans are enjoying slightly higher wages and lower inflation. The government's fiscal situation is likewise improved over the past year. The cost of the banking rescue plan and Chancellor Merkel's small stimulus proposal, however, will impede the goal of balancing the federal budget by 2011, and there doubts the measures will have the desired stimulatory effect. END SUMMARY. GLOOMY ECONOMIC INDICATORS -------------- ¶2. The global financial crisis has spilled over into Germany's real economy, as the country enters its worst recession since 1996. Gross domestic product (GDP),which grew by 1.4 percent in the first quarter and contracted by 0.4 percent in the second quarter, fell by 0.5 percent in the third quarter, according to the Federal Statistics Office. The fourth quarter may see another contraction. As for 2009, the government's Council of Economic Advisors recently revised its growth forecast to zero. September manufacturing orders fell by 8 percent, the steepest drop since reunification. Industrial output fell by 3.6 percent in the same month. Business confidence as measured by the IFO Business Climate Survey is at its lowest level in five years. The Frankfurt DAX Index struck a 52-week low in October, when it closed at 4,014.60. It has bounced back somewhat, but is off some 35 percent since January. ¶3. The procession of companies reporting troubles is getting longer. Deutsche Post, the parent company of the DHL, predicts pretax profits will fall 8 percent in the third quarter, and has cut back its earnings forecasts for this year and next. It is announcing a cost-cutting program that will result in thousands of layoffs, 9500 of which will be at its subsidiary DHL in the United States. (Note: 8000 job losses are expected at DHL's distribution center in Wilmington, Ohio (REFTEL A).) Automaker BMW said its third-quarter profits had dropped 63 percent as the global economic turmoil made consumers more reluctant to buy its sports and luxury cars. The company also said the financial crisis made it impossible to provide a forecast for the rest of the year. Reinsurer Munich Re reported a net profit of 7 million euros in the July-September period, but this was only a tiny fraction of the 1.2 billion euros it earned a year earlier. The Chief Financial Officer remarked that a "reliable profit forecast" was not possible in light of ongoing market volatility. ALL DOOM AND GLOOM ? -------------- ¶4. Some companies are still reporting increased earnings, however. For example, Volkswagen's luxury brand, Audi AG, reported that sales over the past ten months had risen by 3.3 percent, to 844,700 vehicles. The company was confident it would achieve its goal of selling one million cars in 2008. (Volkswagen's CEO has, however, predicted a tough year for the auto industry in 2009.) ¶5. A recent survey by the German research group GfK showed that German consumer confidence, though low, had recently inched upwards, perhaps due to wage increases negotiated earlier in the year and lower energy costs. Another survey by Germany's ZEW economic institute reported that investor sentiment remained depressed in October, albeit up from a record low in July. Depressed demand and lower energy costs have caused inflation to cool. It peaked at 3.3 percent in July, but came down to around 2.4 percent in October. Employment remains robust so far, but may have reached the tipping point. The number of jobless fell below the 3 million mark in October to 7.2 percent (down from 7.4 percent in September),the lowest since 1992. (The government predicts, however, the economy will shed around 30,000 jobs in 2009 due to the economic slowdown.) ¶6. Lower unemployment and other factors have had a positive effect on the national (state and federal) deficit, which in 2007 showed a 70 million euro surplus, the first in 20 years. Although still slightly in deficit, the federal government expects to finish 2008 with an additional 400 million euros in tax revenue. The increase is even more pronounced at the state and communal levels, where authorities will end up with 7 billion euros more in their coffers, BERLIN 00001538 002 OF 002 mostly as a result of higher business tax revenues. Current estimates for 2009, however, are that federal tax revenues will increase by 2.2 billion euros less than was forecast as recently as May. Furthermore, potential liabilities associated with the 500 billion euro bank rescue plan, as well as the recently proposed stimulus plan, will alter the government's fiscal outlook significantly. MERKEL RESPONDS WITH STIMULUS PLAN -------------- ¶7. In response to the discouraging economic indicators, Chancellor Angela Merkel's cabinet has approved a package of 15 relatively minor measures spread over four years to stimulate the economy and protect jobs (REFTEL B). The measures focus on capital investments, and are meant to avoid what some German critics call the "flash in a pan" approach taken by the United States earlier this year. The most significant elements include: 15 billion euros of new loans by the state-owned development bank Kreditanstalt fuer Wiederaufbau (KfW); 3 billion euros for KfW's infrastructure program for needy local governments; 3 billion euros for building renovations aimed at reducing CO2 emissions; 2 billion euros for various transport projects; 200 million euros to boost regional economies; tax cuts for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs); and a one-year suspension of taxes on new cars (two years for low-emission models). Parts of the package do not represent new money, but rather an acceleration of previously planned initiatives; e.g., from 2010 to ¶2009. The package will cost 23 billion euros over four years, of which only 10.9 billion euros will come out of the federal budget. The government thinks the overall economic impact could amount to 50 billion euros, due to the multiplier effect. ¶8. The IMF and others agree that Germany could use a fiscal stimulus. The Chancellor's plan, however, has its critics. The German government's own Council of Economic Advisors recently commented that the measures were inadequately focused. The Council levied particular criticism at the vehicle tax exemption, which they felt would not do much of anything to boost growth. Others have criticized the plan's small overall size. There will certainly be ample debate over the plan's provisions, as most require legislative approval. Meanwhile, the government has given up hope of balancing the budget by 2011. Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck conceded this goal will not be attainable before 2013. ¶9. Ultimately, global trends may determine Germany's economic prospects, as exports account for more than a third of Germany's $3.2 trillion economy. Many of Germany's renowned small- and medium- sized enterprises (SMEs) are exporters in their own right, but are also integral links in large exporting firms' supply chains. So companies of all sizes will feel the squeeze as global demand for their goods falls. As a result, Germans are paying close attention to stimulus efforts in Europe, Asia and the United States. ¶10. This cable was coordinated with Congens Frankfurt and Munich.