GERMANY/AFGHANISTAN: ISAF MANDATE RENEWED WITH A

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001413 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2018 TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV AF GM SUBJECT: GERMANY/AFGHANISTAN: ISAF MANDATE RENEWED WITH A SMALLER, BUT STILL OVERWHELMING PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY REF: BERLIN 1387 Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR JEFF RATHKE. REASONS: 1.4 ( B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) As previewed reftel, the Bundestag approved on OCTOBER 16 a 14-month extension of the parliamentary mandate for Bundeswehr participation in ISAF by a wide margin, with 442 voting "yes," 96 "no" and 32 abstaining. In addition, 42 parliamentarians, some of whom would have voted "no" or abstained had they been in attendance, did not show up to vote. Interestingly, the no-shows included a number of cabinet members, including Chancellor Merkel. While some parliamentarians clearly skipped the vote to avoid going on the record on a contentious issue in advance of next year's Bundestag election, others (like Merkel) were preoccupied with the economic bail-out package, which was negotiated throughout the day OCTOBER 16 and rushed through the Bundestag OCTOBER 17. ¶2. (SBU) While overall Bundestag support for ISAF remains strong, this year's vote continues a steady, albeit small, long-term erosion in support for the mission. Last year, the vote was 453 for and 79 against in the 612-member Bundestag. The first ISAF mandate in 2001 was approved almost unanimously. ¶3. (SBU) More than half of the "no" votes this year came from the 52-member Left Party caucus, which voted in a block against renewal of the mandate. The Left Party routinely opposes all overseas military deployments and has never supported ISAF. ¶4. (C) The second largest number of "no" votes (20) came from the ranks of the 222-member Social Democratic Party (SPD) caucus, up seven from last year. This must have come as a disappointment to FM Steinmeier, who had hoped that his success in eliminating the controversial German Special Forces (KSK) element from the forthcoming OEF mandate would shore up support for ISAF within his party. Still, the number of SPD defections this year is a far cry from the debacle the SPD suffered in March 2007 when 69 parliamentarians defied the party leadership in opposing the initial mandate for deployment of the Tornado aircraft to Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the number of defections among Chancellor Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Bavarian sister party Christian Social Union (CSU) continued to be in the single digits. ¶5. (SBU) The Greens, who were in government at the time the first OEF and ISAF mandates were passed in 2001, used to be reliable supporters of ISAF until last year, when the controversial Tornados were incorporated into the mandate. Even though the concerns about the Tornados being used in combat role have proven baseless since then, a majority of the 51 Green Party parliamentarians continued to oppose or abstain on the ISAF mandate this year. As was the case last year, only 15 voted in favor of it. In a mirror image of the Greens, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) opposed the ISAF mandate early on (when ISAF was first expanded outside of Kabul in 2003),but have since strongly supported it. This year, the FDP voted in favor of renewal of the mandate 46-6. KOENIG