GERMANY: BUNDESTAG SET TO RENEW A BEEFED-UP ISAF

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001387 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2018 TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV AF GM SUBJECT: GERMANY: BUNDESTAG SET TO RENEW A BEEFED-UP ISAF MANDATE AND A SCALED-DOWN OEF COUNTERPART REF: A. BERLIN 1045 ¶B. SECDEF MSG DTG 301601z SEP 08 Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES JOHN KOENIG. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: The Bundestag is expected to approve on October 16 a 14-month extension of the parliamentary mandate that authorizes Bundeswehr participation in the NATO ISAF mission in Afghanistan. The renewed ISAF mandate will continue to limit German forces essentially to the north of Afghanistan, although provisions for deploying some non-combat support in the rest of the country will be spelled out for the first time. The renewed mandate will have a significantly higher troop ceiling (an increase from 3,500 to 4,500),allowing Germany to fulfill its commitments on ANA training and offering additional flexibility in responding to crisis situations and in surging forces in support of the Afghan presidential election. The renewed ISAF mandate will not include authorization to participate in the planned NATO AWACS mission, thereby requiring the government to seek a separate stand-alone mandate once there is a NATO decision. The new mandate will also not include expanded authority to conduct counternarcotics interdiction, as has been requested by SACEUR. Meanwhile, Chancellor Merkel, FM Steinmeier and DefMin Jung have agreed to eliminate the German Special Forces (KSK) element from the separate OEF parliamentary mandate when it comes up for renewal in November. Steinmeier and the SPD have been spinning this in the media as an SPD success, much to the annoyance of the Chancellery. Eliminating the controversial KSK element -- which has gone unused for the past four years -- was seen as a price to pay to ensure strong parliamentary support (especially in the SPD) for renewal of the ISAF mandate. The elimination of the KSK element from the OEF mandate may open opportunities for the USG to press Germany to increase its Special Forces capability within ISAF. END SUMMARY. Large majority expected for mandate renewal ¶2. (SBU) The German cabinet agreed October 7 to seek a 14-month extension of the parliamentary mandate that authorizes Bundeswehr participation in the NATO ISAF mission in Afghanistan. This longer mandate (the normal mandate period is one year) is intended to ensure that the mandate will not come up for renewal until after the seating of the new Bundestag following the September 2009 parliamentary election, diminishing Afghanistan as a campaign issue next year. The Bundestag held the first reading of the draft mandate right after cabinet approval and is scheduled to vote on it October 16. All indications are that the mandate extension will be approved by a wide margin, with all the Bundestag parties supporting it, except for the small Left Party, which opposes all overseas deployments and which has consistently voted as a solid block against the mandate. Most Green Party parliamentarians either abstained or voted against the mandate last year, but are expected to support it this time around, given that their concerns about the possible combat role of the German Tornado reconnaissance aircraft under the mandate have not materialized. Rolling-over the previous mandate ¶3. (C) The proposed mandate is similar to the existing one, which essentially limits German forces to the north of Afghanistan. The mandate technically allows deployments, limited in time and scope, outside the north on an exceptional basis, if deemed by the German defense minister to be absolutely essential to the ISAF mission. But up to now, the German government has been very reluctant to exercise this authority in regard to combat forces. For example, the government still does not allow German Operational and Mentoring Liaison Teams (OMLTs) to accompany their assigned Afghan National Army (ANA) units on deployments outside the north. With less than a year to go before Bundestag elections, we anticipate the government will remain exceedingly cautious and conservative in making use of the exception in the mandate. New features in renewed mandate ¶4. (SBU) While the renewed mandate will be mostly unchanged, there are a few notable improvements: -- Increase in the troop ceiling from the 3,500 to 4,500: Germany is currently right up against the 3,500 troop ceiling because of the need over the past several months to deploy additional troops to respond to the deteriorating security situation in the north, to fill in for departing Allied troops (primarily Czech and Danish soldiers who re-deployed to the south and east),and to take on new tasks (like the 200-man RC-North Quick Reaction Force). Defense Minister Jung has emphasized that the increase in the troop ceiling does not mean Germany will be sending an additional 1,000 soldiers to Afghanistan immediately. While there may be a small increase in troops right away (up to 3,800 or 3,900) so that Germany can fulfill its previous ANA training commitments, the rest of the additional troop authorization will be held in reserve. It will be used to give military leaders additional flexibility in responding to crisis situations and in surging forces in support of the 2009 Afghan presidential elections. -- Blanket authorization to exceed the troop ceiling during rotations: This will give the Bundeswehr more flexibility in moving units in and out of Afghanistan without having to worry about temporarily exceeding the troop ceiling. -- Explicit permission for certain units and assets to operate throughout Afghanistan: Some 30 radio operators have been based in Kandahar for more than a year under the exception in the mandate that allows time-limited deployments outside the north. Under the new mandate, they will be covered as a permanent deployment. Other assets and personnel that will be included in this category: Psychological operations personnel, Tornado reconnaissance aircraft, C-160 aircraft providing intra-theater airlift, and MEDEVAC helicopters. No authorization for awacs ¶5. (C) After much hand-wringing over the summer about the potential impact on maintaining a strict divide between Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) and ISAF (ref A),the government was prepared to include an authorization in the renewed ISAF mandate for German air crews to participate in the proposed NATO AWACS mission in Afghanistan. But those plans were dashed in late September when France blocked a NATO decision giving the green light for planning the mission. MFA officials have rejected including language in the renewed ISAF mandate that would anticipate a future NATO decision on AWACS, claiming that the Bundestag would oppose this as a "blank check." As a result, the renewed ISAF mandate will be completely silent on the issue, requiring, therefore, the government to seek a separate stand-alone mandate on AWACS later once there is a NATO decision authorizing the mission. We have been assured by senior sources in the Chancellery (protect) that Germany will approve the required mandate for the deployment of German AWACS crews, once NATO approves the AWACS mission. ¶6. (C) Current thinking in the MFA is that the government will not seek a AWACS mandate until the end of the NATO decision-making process, when all the details over financing and stationing of the NATO AWACS have been worked out. This ensures that there will be a decent interval between approval of the ISAF mandate and the need for the government to go back to the Bundestag for the stand-alone AWACS mandate. MFA officials acknowledge that waiting until the end of the process to seek Bundestag authorization also ensures that they do not waste political capital on obtaining a mandate that may never be used because of possible problems or delays in NATO decision-making. No additional authority on counternarcotics ¶7. (C) The renewed ISAF mandate will also contain no expanded authorization for the Bundeswehr soldiers to engage in counternarcotics (CN) interdiction in Afghanistan. According to xxxxxxxxxxxx, the Chancellery supported including language to expand ISAF CN tasks in the Bundestag mandate, but was pushed back by DefMin Jung. At this stage, German officials remain opposed to a Bundeswehr lead role in CN interdiction operations. xxxxxxxxxxxx told the DCM that Germany would try to support the temporary "opt in" arrangement endorsed by NATO Defense Ministers at their October 9-10 meeting in Budapest. He saw potential problems, including with the Bundestag, if Allies that "opt in" need to draw on common ISAF capabilities. He said assurances on this score would be helpful. The MFA has also stressed its reservations about other Allies or ISAF contributors taking a lead role in CN operations, for fear of the knock-on effects for German forces. As a result, under the renewed ISAF mandate, the Bundeswehr will be limited to the CN support activities already outlined in the current ISAF Operations Plan (OPLAN). No deadline for withdrawal ¶8. (U) Peter Ramsauer, the Bundestag leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU),the Bavarian sister party of Chancellor Merkel's CDU, had publicly advocated adopting an "exit strategy" and setting a timeline for the eventual withdrawal of the Bundeswehr from Afghanistan, but this was rejected by both Merkel and Steinmeier. A government spokesman said the Chancellor and Foreign Minister "were agreed that it would be irresponsible to discuss a withdrawal deadline or an end of the mandate now." Oef mandate ¶9. (C) There is a separate parliamentary mandate that covers the Bundeswehr's participation in OEF, the renewal of which will be debated and voted on in November. The current mandate authorizes the deployment of up to 100 German Special Forces (KSK) in Afghanistan as well as the deployment of naval personnel and ships around the Horn of Africa. The current OEF troop ceiling is 1,400, but only about 250 Bundeswehr military personnel are now deployed under the mandate, all of whom participate in the maritime mission; the KSK reportedly has not been deployed to Afghanistan under OEF in the last four years. Jung announced months ago that he planned to seek a reduction in the OEF ceiling to 800 during the next mandate renewal. ¶10. (S/NF) One of the most dramatic developments in recent weeks has been the decision of the government to eliminate the German Special Forces (KSK) element from the separate OEF parliamentary mandate when it comes up for renewal in November. Steinmeier and his Social Democratic Party (SPD) have spun this to the public as their achievement. Eliminating the controversial KSK element -- which has gone unused for the past four years -- was seen by the governing coalition as a price to pay to ensure strong parliamentary support, especially in the SPD, for renewal of the ISAF mandate. xxxxxxxxxxxx While deleting the KSK from the OEF mandate will have no practical effect on the ground in Afghanistan, it will formally end Germany's participation in OEF in Afghanistan, which could be misconstrued by some as a symbolic step back from supporting the war on terror. Total cost of mission: over 1 billion euros per year ¶11. (SBU) Germany's military deployment is expected to cost almost 700 million Euros over the next year. Combined with the 140 million Euros that it has budgeted for reconstruction, development and humanitarian assistance, plus what it spends on the police training mission, Germany's total outlay per year for the mission in Afghanistan is now more than 1 billion Euros. Comment ¶12. (C) Germany remains committed to the ISAF mission without time limits or conditions and has steadily increased its overall contributions and filled all the shortfalls in its region. However, up to now, it has remained unwilling to deploy combat troops outside the north. The elimination of the KSK element from the OEF mandate may open opportunities to seek greater use of German Special Forces on a country-wide basis under ISAF. The KSK is, in fact, already deployed in Afghanistan, and has been for months, but is apparently there under German national control to track down those responsible for recent attacks on the Bundeswehr. As far as we are aware, the KSK has not yet been made available to COMISAF for ISAF missions outside the north, even though such missions could be covered under the exception in the ISAF mandate. Convincing the Germans to make the KSK available for country-wide missions under ISAF would take time and would probably require direct engagement with Chancellor Merkel and FM Steinmeier. Even after general approval was received, each specific deployment outside the north would likely require the consent of DefMin Jung as specified in the ISAF mandate. Koenig