GERMAN VIEWS ON THE OCTOBER 13 EU GAERC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 001386 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2018 TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV GG RS ZI UZ BO MD SUBJECT: GERMAN VIEWS ON THE OCTOBER 13 EU GAERC REF: STATE 108064 Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR JEFF RATHKE. REASONS: 1.4 ( B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Post delivered reftel points to MFA Deputy European Correspondent Thomas Schieb October 9 and followed up with him October 10 to get his reactions. Schieb noted that the GAERC will not only issue its own conclusions, but help prepare those to be released by the October 15-16 European Council. In the GAERC conclusions on Georgia, Germany wants to avoid being too critical of Russia for fear of undermining the launch of talks in Geneva on October 15. Germany's "number one priority" is to establish a political process with Russia on this issue. Schieb said that at the October 15-16 EU Summit, Germany will push for resuming suspended talks on a new Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) with Russia, arguing that the PCA is as much in the EU's interest as in Russia's. On Belarus, Schieb predicted that there would be a political decision to lift the travel ban on some, if not all, of the 40 affected Belarusian officials, but that the asset freeze would remain in place. On Uzbekistan, Schieb said there was an EU consensus on permanently lifting the visa ban against senior Uzbek officials, despite the lack of significant progress on democratization and human rights. Schieb also reported that there would be Council conclusions on Zimbabwe and Moldova. END SUMMARY. RUSSIA/GEORGIA ¶2. (C) Schieb noted that the Foreign Ministers will not only adopt their own conclusions on Russia/Georgia, but also review those prepared for the October 15-16 European Council meeting. Schieb said the GAERC conclusions would focus on deployment of the EU Monitoring Mission (EUMM), implementation of the August 12 and September 8 agreements and preparations for the October 22 Georgia Donors Conference. He said the conclusions would also stress the independence and territorial integrity of Georgia, but without explicitly calling on the Russians to withdraw their additional forces from South Ossetia and Abkhazia as they committed to do in the August 12 agreement. Also, the conclusions will not explicitly call for the EUMM to gain full access to the separatist regions. Schieb said that Germany and other EU members wanted to avoid being too confrontational vis-a-vis Russia in advance of the October 15 Geneva talks. The "number one priority" was to establish a political process with Russia on the Georgia question and Germany did not want to undermine those efforts. ¶3. (C) Schieb said the European Council conclusions will address the issue of resuming suspended talks on a new Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) with Russia. Schieb confirmed that Germany favored re-starting PCA talks, assuming that Russia followed through on its September 8 commitment to fully withdraw its troops from the "buffer zone" outside of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. While Germany agreed that the August 12 agreement obliged Russia to reduce its forces within the separatist regions to pre-August 7 levels, Schieb said that one had to be "realistic" that this was not going to happen, at least not in the near future. Germany did not want the EU to paint itself into a corner, conditioning the PCA on something it might never achieve. ¶4. (C) Schieb argued that the PCA was not only in Russia's interest, but in the EU's as well, since it would address key issues like energy and frozen conflicts. Schieb said that even with the re-start of the PCA negotiations, Germany favored maintaining a "no business as usual" EU stance vis-a-vis Russia, but could not specify what concrete measures or actions that might entail. "That still needs to be worked out." He noted that the European Commission is preparing a paper on EU relations with Russia that will help inform this discussion. BELARUS ¶5. (C) Schieb thought the U.S. and EU were thinking roughly along the same lines regarding the way ahead on Belarus. Germany agreed that the parliamentary election was very disappointing and that any relaxation in sanctions be partial and limited in time. Lukashenka's recent concessions are probably more tactical than genuine moves to democratize. Nonetheless, Schieb argued that Germany and other EU members BERLIN 00001386 002 OF 002 saw a "window of opportunity" to give positive signals and to test Lukashenka's sincerity about wanting to move forward. For that reason, the Foreign Ministers would probably reach a political decision to lift the travel ban on some, if not all, of the 40 affected Belarusian officials. Schieb thought the asset freeze, on the other hand, would remain in place. Schieb said the lifting of the travel ban would be time limited and subject to conditions to be worked out later. ZIMBABWE ¶6. (C) Schieb expected short Council conclusions, expressing concern about the failure to implement the September 15 agreement. He confirmed that EU would continue to maintain current sanctions. UZBEKISTAN ¶7. (C) Schieb said there is an EU consensus on permanently lifting the visa ban against senior Uzbek officials, which has been suspended for the past year. While conceding that there had not been much progress on human rights and democracy, Schieb said Germany thought engagement with the Uzbeks offered more opportunities to achieve results than continued sanctions. He noted that Germany had a "very dense" set of working groups and other contacts with the Uzbeks to encourage democratic reforms. Schieb confirmed that the arms ban would remain in place and was not familiar with efforts to "down-size" it. MOLDOVA ¶8. (C) Schieb said there would also be short Council conclusions on Moldova, expressing the EU's interest in a closer relationship. Schieb said the idea was to send a signal not only to Moldova, but to Russia as well. KOENIG