GERMANY/RUSSIA: ON THE EVE OF THE OCTOBER 2

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001355 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2018 TAGS: PREL MOPS GM RS GG SUBJECT: GERMANY/RUSSIA: ON THE EVE OF THE OCTOBER 2 CONSULTATIONS IN ST. PETERSBURG REF: STATE 104547 Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR JEFF RATHKE. REASONS: 1.4 ( B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. German officials were surprised to hear that attacks against civilians in the Russian-controlled areas of Georgia remain a problem and asked for more information about the source of these reports. Germany plans to use the October 2 bilateral government consultations in St. Petersburg to press the Russians to give OSCE and EU monitors full access throughout the conflict zone and to withdraw all troops currently deployed outside the separatist regions by October 10. German officials emphasize that the October 2 government consultations are in line with the agreed Allied policy of "no business as usual" with Russia, noting that this meeting will involve significantly fewer ministers and last only half as long as has been the practice. While Germany remains on board for now with the "no business as usual" policy, the MFA has begun to consider what criteria should be met for the resumption of normal relations. Germany is concerned about freezing cooperation at a reduced level for an unlimited period of time. END SUMMARY. DEMARCHE ¶2. (C) As instructed reftel, post notified MFA Office Director for Russian Affairs Ernst Reichel October 1 about the U.S. demarche to the Russian government on protecting civilians in Russian-controlled areas of Georgia, and asked that Germany make a similar demarche. Post likewise advised the Chancellery about the demarche and expressed the hope that Germany could make a similar approach. We noted that the October 2 government consultations between Russia and Germany in St. Petersburg, in which both Chancellor Merkel and FM Steinmeier will participate, offered an excellent opportunity to reinforce these points. ¶3. (C) Reichel said he was surprised to hear that such attacks against civilians were still a problem and asked what the source of the U.S. information was. As far as he and the MFA Caucasus Affairs Office were aware, this was no longer a major problem. He readily agreed, however, that it was important to press the Russians to give OSCE and EU monitors full access throughout the conflict zone and to withdraw all troops currently deployed outside the separatist regions by October 10. He said that German officials would emphasize both these points at the October 2 government consultations. In a separate conversation, the Chancellery South Caucasus Action Officer Agapi Nehring told us that, contrary to media reports, EU monitors were now being allowed access into the "buffer zone" outside of South Ossetia and that EU officials were hopeful that the Russians would complete their withdrawal from their area by the October 10 deadline. OCTOBER 2 GOVERNMENT CONSULTATIONS WITH RUSSIA ¶4. (C) Reichel also emphasized that the October 2 government consultations were in line with the agreed Allied policy of "no business as usual" with Russia. He noted that the size and scope of the consultations was significantly reduced, with only six ministers plus the Chancellor attending, versus the normal 11 to 14. Also, the consultations will only last one day instead of the usual two. Reichel noted that the Russian Ambassador to Germany had been quoted in the local German press complaining about the reduced level of cooperation between the two countries and specifically about Germany's cancellation of a planned State Secretary-level meeting of a long-standing bilateral security working group. Reichel asked how the U.S. determined what was "business as usual" and what was not, referring to press reports (NFI) that Under Secretary Burns and other USG officials planned to attend an economic conference being held in early October in Washington involving a large number of Russian businessmen (perhaps up to 2,000). LOOKING AHEAD ¶5. (C) Reichel said that while Germany remains on board for now with the "no business as usual" policy, it has begun to consider what criteria should be met for the resumption of normal relations. Germany was not in favor of freezing cooperation at a reduced level for an unlimited period of time. Reichel expressed concern that requiring Russia to reduce its troop presence in South Ossetia and Abkhazia to pre-August 7 levels could achieve exactly this result. Reichel, just back from a trip to Moscow with MFA State Secretary Silberberg, noted that the Russians continue to insist that they have already implemented the six-point plan completely, arguing that the language about returning to pre-August 7 positions is a geographic description and does not necessarily include a limit on the number of troops. Reichel said that while Germany did not share this interpretation, the ambiguity of the six-point plan made it harder to dispute the Russian view. ¶6. (C) Reichel thought there was very little likelihood that Russia, having already recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia's independence and having signed agreements providing for the stationing of its troops, would suddenly relent to Western demands. The question, therefore, was what was realistic to expect from Russia as the price for resuming normal cooperation. Reichel emphasized that Germany had not yet reached any conclusions about this, but that this question was under active review. TIMKEN JR