GERMANY: COLLAPSE OF ORANGE COALITION PULLS MAP

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001295 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR NATO EUN GM RS SUBJECT: GERMANY: COLLAPSE OF ORANGE COALITION PULLS MAP OFF THE TABLE Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES JOHN KOENIG FOR REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND ( D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Contacts at MFA and the Chancellery indicated that the collapse of the Orange Coalition in Ukraine makes MAP improbable in the near or medium term. POLOFF met with MFA Division Head for Russia and Ukraine Ernst Reichel September 19, who hoped that Germany and the U.S. would come to agreement before December to avoid a "public fight" that would be detrimental to the Alliance. Although officials at both the MFA and Chancellery confirmed that Chancellor Merkel stands by the Bucharest Declaration, the GOG views the Ukraine situation as having deteriorated enough to make MAP improbable for this year. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) According to Chancellery Deputy Head of CIS Division Christoph Israng September 19, Ukraine FM Ohryzko met with Minister Director Heusgen September 16, and Heusgen once again emphasized the GOG's position that the president and prime minister of Ukraine must work together to make EU and NATO membership possible. Heusgen and FM Ohryzko went through a "long list" of conditions Ukraine must meet to convince Germany that Ukraine was stable and united in its desire to join NATO. Israng related that the Chancellery's view is that "chaos" reigns in Ukraine's domestic politics, pulling MAP off the table for December if not longer. When pressed, Israng confirmed that Heusgen conveyed this message to FM Ohryzko and that Merkel conveyed this message personally to President Yushchenko via phone September 5. ¶3. (C) MFA concurred with the Chancellery's position. Expressing the MFA viewpoint, Reichel said the GOG would not support MAP for Ukraine given the collapse of the Orange Coalition, and suggested that the Alliance should come to agreement regarding how to treat Ukraine prior to the December ministerial meeting to avoid the "embarrassment" of a public fight. Although Reichel expressed dismay that Ukraine had "wasted" the opportunity of the post-Orange Revolution coalition, he also stressed the GOG's position that Ukraine must be a stable country before it can receive MAP. Reichel personally expected that parliamentary elections would be held soon and suggested holding off on reviewing MAP until after the presidential elections in January 2010. Reichel emphasized that the GOG's decision was based on the internal Ukraine situation. Reichel also shared that the MFA at large was "shocked" by Russian FM Lavrov's op-ed in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Reichel related that the op-ed was widely read and interpreted as Lavrov threatening European security writ large should Ukraine be invited into NATO. KOENIG