GERMANY/GEORGIA: STATUS OF EU OBSERVER MISSION AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001261

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2018
TAGS: MOPS OSCE PHUM PREL UN GG RS GM EU
SUBJECT: GERMANY/GEORGIA: STATUS OF EU OBSERVER MISSION AND
OTHER INITIATIVES

REF: A. TBILISI 01522

B. STATE 97574

C. BERLIN 01221

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Jeffrey Rathke
for reasons: 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The German government is using numerous
bilateral and multilateral tools to assist Georgia in its
recovery from the recent war with Russia. Germany strongly
supports the EU observer mission in Georgia and seems
determined to meet the October 1 deployment deadline.
Chancellor Merkel has already committed to provide one-fifth
of the 200-person mission. The 40 German monitors are likely
to be a mixture of police officers and civilians drawn from a
list of pre-trained and pre-selected personnel who are ready
to deploy at short notice. While the original intent was for
German monitors to be unarmed, that is being reconsidered in
view of the fact that France's contribution will include
armed gendarmarie. Merkel wants to submit the mission to the
Bundestag for approval, but MFA and Chancellery officials
assure us that this can be done quickly and should not delay
the deployment. Germany is also supporting the planned donor
conference in late October, which they expect to take place
in an EU capital rather than Tbilisi. Meanwhile, neither the
Chancellery nor the MFA appear to be doing much at the moment
to carry out FM Steinmeier's proposals for an independent
commission to investigate the causes of the Georgian conflict
or a regional conference to help stabilize the Caucasus.
END SUMMARY

EU OBSERVER MISSION


2. (C) Germany strongly supports the EU observer mission in
Georgia and seems determined to meet the October 1 deployment
deadline. Chancellor Merkel publicly pledged September 10
that Germany would contribute a fifth of the 200 observers.
This has been subsequently confirmed publicly by FM
Steinmeier. According to the MFA, the EU Political and
Security Committee (PSC) will meet today (September 12) to
coordinate pledges, but preliminary indications are that the
target of 200 has already been exceeded, with France leading
the way with 60.


3. (C) The 40 German monitors are likely to be a mixture of
police officers and civilians drawn from a list maintained by
the German Government Center for International Peace
Operations (Zentrum feur Internationale Friedensinsaetzen --
ZIF). Established in 2002 to enhance Germany's civilian
crisis prevention capabilities, ZIF trains, recruits and
maintains a pool of German civilian professionals able to
deploy on overseas missions at short notice. While the
original intent was for German monitors to be unarmed, that
is being reconsidered in view of the fact that France's
contribution will include armed gendarmarie. In any event,
Merkel has already committed to having the Bundestag approve
the mission, but MFA and Chancellery officials assure us that
this can be done quickly and should not delay the deployment.
The Bundestag begins its fall session September 15 and also
will be in session the week of September 22.

ACCESS TO SOUTH OSSETIA AND ABKHAZIA


4. (C) Regarding the mandate of the EU observer mission,
Merkel has said publicly that the EU will have to negotiate
with Russia about gaining access to South Ossetia and
Abkhazia. While MFA and Chancellery officials agree with us
that the EU needs to push this point with Moscow, they are
not hopeful about Russian acquiescence. MFA Deputy Head of
the OSCE Division Karin Goebel confirmed that the OSCE faces
similar difficulties, and that Germany only expects the eight
original OSCE observers to be allowed to enter South Ossetia.
Goebel said that the original OSCE mandate for South Ossetia
concerning promoting the respect of human rights could allow
an investigation into claims of atrocities committed against
ethnic Georgians (ref A). In what she described as a hopeful
sign of Russian flexibility, Goebel said that the new OSCE
observers already in Georgia had been allowed into Akhalgori
in South Ossetia

INDEPENDENT COMMISSION


5. (C) FM Steinmeier publicly proposed last week that an
independent commission, possibly under the OSCE, investigate
the causes of the war, but officials in the Chancellery and
the MFA appear to be doing little to actualize the idea.
Chancellery Deputy Division Director Christoph Israng and
Goebel agreed that the question is important, but Israng said
that Steinmeier merely made the suggestion to appease the
significant segment of the German public that believes
Germany is "too Georgia-friendly" and/or has ethnic ties to
Russia. Goebel argued that such an investigation would hurt
rather than assist cooperation efforts in the region. She
confirmed that while "contemplating" the idea, the MFA's OSCE
Division was not engaged in any concrete efforts to carry it
out and viewed such an investigation as ill-suited for the
OSCE. Such an investigation, in Goebel's view, also would be
hindered by the OSCE's inability to have unfettered access to
Abkhazia and South Ossestia. She suggested that the Council
of Europe would be a better forum for a discussion of the
root causes.

OCTOBER 15 GENEVA MEETING


6. (C) According to MFA Deputy Caucasus Office Director Maria
Gosse, Germany expects the October 15 meeting in Geneva to
focus on whether the six-point plan is being adhered to,
rather than a discussion how to facilitate an investigation
of the causes of the conflict. In response to ref B points,
Gosse argued that Abkhazia and South Ossetia needed to be
represented at the October 15 meeting to discuss the
implementation of the six-point plan. Although Gosse agreed
that national delegations from the two break-away regions
should not be seated, she stressed that the GOG viewed it as
"unwise to shut out" their representatives. She further
related that the French are preparing a paper due by the end
of September to suggest how the October 15 meeting should
unfold. Gosse agreed with ref B that the basing of 7,600
Russian troops in the two provinces is not consistent with
Russia's obligations in the six-point plan to withdraw its
forces to pre-August 7 positions, but she argued that the EU
needs to take a "realistic" position to move negotiations
forward.


7. (C) Gosse's take on how to approach the October 15 meeting
appears to mesh with the Chancellery's view. Merkel publicly
stressed that the resumption of Partnership and Cooperation
Agreement (PCA) negotiations with Russia hinges on
fulfillment of point five (Russian withdrawal out of Georgia
proper) and not the fulfillment of all six points. Israng
also expected the October 15 meeting to consider how to
assist internally displaced persons (IDPs).

SENDING AID AND ASSISTING RECONSTRUCTION


8. (C) According to Gosse, Germany's plans for the proposed
donor conference remain in flux, and the French EU presidency
is responsible for determining when and where the conference
will take place. Israng said that the donor conference
should not take place in Tbilisi because Georgian President
Saakashvili would try to make a "show" out of it. Gosse
confirmed that Tbilisi was a highly unlikely venue and
mentioned Prague as a top possibility among the EU capitals,
but reiterated that Germany was not taking the lead on
planning the conference. Germany already has allotted two
million euros in humanitarian aid (ref C),and MFA Deputy
Division Head for Reconstruction Uebber informed POLOFF that
an expert is currently in Georgia to determine the details
(such as location, materials, etc.) for the eight million
Euro package for prefabricated housing for IDPs. Asked about
other ways Germany is assisting Georgia, Uebber mentioned
several small projects, such as giving building materials to
residents of Gori and potentially purchasing a backup
computer server to assist the Georgian Civil Registration
Agency. Uebber argued that while funds remain to support
reconstruction in Georgia, she was unsure how badly Georgia
needed the assistance and identified a lack of concrete
projects to fund.

REGIONAL STABILITY CONFERENCE


9. (C) FM Steinmeier, in his opening speech at the annual
German Ambassadors' Conference September 8 in Berlin,
supported the Turkish proposal to hold a conference following
the Balkan model with the goal of "a strategic framework
which stabilizes and transforms the region of the Caucasus,
the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea on the basis of the
European Neighborhood Policy." Israng shared that the
Chancellery was not clear on how Steinmeier envisioned this
and wondered if it could be folded into one of the other
numerous proposals. Gosse expected the EU to take up this
effort rather than the German MFA.


10. (C) COMMENT: Thus far, there is little behind FM
Steinmeier's proposals for an investigation into the causes
of the conflict and a regional stability conference. While
agreeing that an investigation sounds nice in theory, our
working-level contacts acknowledge that it could be more
harmful than helpful, especially now. The MFA seems to be
doing little concrete to move Steinmeier's proposal forward.
Our contacts also regard Steinmeier's proposal for a
stability conference as vague, and the responsible MFA
division has punted the issue to the EU. Steinmeier has
touted Germany as the EU's largest bilateral donor to
Georgia, but the MFA Division for Reconstruction is
questioning how severe Georgia's needs are and focusing its
attention on smaller projects rather than the larger-scale
projects, such as prefabricated housing.
TIMKEN JR