GERMANY CAREFULLY WATCHING RUSSIAN WITHDRAWAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001176 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2018 TAGS: MOPS OSCE PHUM PREL UN GG RS GM EU SUBJECT: GERMANY CAREFULLY WATCHING RUSSIAN WITHDRAWAL Classified By: ACTING DCM JEFFREY RATHKE FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: POLOFF met with MFA Division Head for Russia and Ukraine Ernst Reichel to discuss the Russian troop withdrawal from Georgia on August 22. Reichel emphasized that Russia's actions over the next day are vital for mitigating damage to its relations and reputation. Although confusion remains about how many Russian troops may remain in Georgia under the French plan, the GOG is watching unfolding events with great interest, but Reichel saw the potential for further setbacks if the Russian parliament next week voted to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Reichel also conveyed the unlikelihood in Germany's perspective that the EU would reach a decision in the next week regarding a peacekeeping role in Georgia. End summary. ¶2. (C) The meeting was delayed by several minutes as Reichel was coming directly from a Georgian Task Force meeting where the members had agreed to reconvene early August 23 to determine the state of Russian forces in Georgia and work on a joint statement with other countries regarding Russian actions. Reichel reiterated that confusion remains as to how many Russian troops would be allowed in Georgia under the interim provisions of the French six point plan. Reichel suggested that the MFA likely would consider it a major breakthrough if 1) most troops are out of Georgia by early morning August 23 and 2) the rest are moving towards the border with the exception of 500 or potentially 1000 under the interim provisions in the plan. In a separate meeting August 22, Gudula Gutmann, foreign policy advisor to Bundestag member Eckart von Klaeden (CDU),concluded that a good-faith effort by Russia to withdraw its troops by August 23 would be a litmus test for Russia's desire for close ties with the EU, NATO, or the west writ large. ¶3. (C) Some confusion remains as to the exact nature of the buffer zone for South Ossetia, and Reichel related that the exact width of the zone remains in question but that the Germans view it as acceptable under the interim provisions of the French plan. However, Reichel was not aware of a buffer zone around Abkhazia and was concerned that, should press reports be accurate regarding Russian attempts to establish such a zone, it may not be consistent with the French-brokered plan. Reichel stressed that MFA closely was following reports that Russians were fortifying positions in the port town of Poti. COMMENT: Contacts appeared frustrated with multiple copies of the French plan and with letters exchanged regarding the interim provisions. Gutmann went so far as to complain of French sloppiness allowing an opening for the Russians to demand more. ¶4. (C) Regardless of what occurs over the next 24 hours, Reichel stated that Russia's relations with Germany and the EU more broadly have suffered because of Russian troops entering Georgia. He underscored a common theme in Berlin that Russia also has harmed its relations with CIS countries. Members from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs have emphasized on separate occasions that Russia will face increased difficulties in the "near abroad" as well as with Germany due to Russian military actions. ¶5. (C) Reichel remains concerned by the proposed vote next week in the Russian parliament regarding recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. If the parliament votes to recognize the two as independent and the Kremlin agrees, Reichel expected a major setback in German-Russian relations. If the parliament instead voted to recommend recognition to the Kremlin, and President Medvedev avoided taking that step, Reichel expected a more measured response from Germany. ¶6. (C) Overall, Reichel and Gutmann viewed the possibility of an EU peacekeeping force positively, but Reichel did not see a decision being reached next week in Brussels. He emphasized that several difficult questions must be answered first. For example, he was uncertain whether it would be responsible for the EU to send unarmed observers into a dangerous situation and whether an EU consensus was possible. Although the GOG supports the idea of the EU playing a role in peacekeeping, Reichel expects a final determination to take some time. TIMKEN JR