GERMANY CAREFULLY WATCHING RUSSIAN WITHDRAWAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001176

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2018
TAGS: MOPS OSCE PHUM PREL UN GG RS GM EU
SUBJECT: GERMANY CAREFULLY WATCHING RUSSIAN WITHDRAWAL

Classified By: ACTING DCM JEFFREY RATHKE FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: PolOff met with MFA Division Head for Russia
and Ukraine Ernst Reichel to discuss the Russian troop
withdrawal from Georgia on August 22. Reichel emphasized
that Russia's actions over the next day are vital for
mitigating damage to its relations and reputation. Although
confusion remains about how many Russian troops may remain in
Georgia under the French plan, the GOG is watching unfolding
events with great interest, but Reichel saw the potential for
further setbacks if the Russian parliament next week voted to
recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Reichel also conveyed
the unlikelihood in Germany's perspective that the EU would
reach a decision in the next week regarding a peacekeeping
role in Georgia. End summary.


2. (C) The meeting was delayed by several minutes as Reichel
was coming directly from a Georgian Task Force meeting where
the members had agreed to reconvene early August 23 to
determine the state of Russian forces in Georgia and work on
a joint statement with other countries regarding Russian
actions. Reichel reiterated that confusion remains as to how
many Russian troops would be allowed in Georgia under the
interim provisions of the French six point plan. Reichel
suggested that the MFA likely would consider it a major
breakthrough if 1) most troops are out of Georgia by early
morning August 23 and 2) the rest are moving towards the
border with the exception of 500 or potentially 1000 under
the interim provisions in the plan. In a separate meeting
August 22, Gudula Gutmann, foreign policy advisor to
Bundestag member Eckart von Klaeden (CDU),concluded that a
good-faith effort by Russia to withdraw its troops by August
23 would be a litmus test for Russia's desire for close ties
with the EU, NATO, or the west writ large.


3. (C) Some confusion remains as to the exact nature of the
buffer zone for South Ossetia, and Reichel related that the
exact width of the zone remains in question but that the
Germans view it as acceptable under the interim provisions of
the French plan. However, Reichel was not aware of a buffer
zone around Abkhazia and was concerned that, should press
reports be accurate regarding Russian attempts to establish
such a zone, it may not be consistent with the
French-brokered plan. Reichel stressed that MFA closely was
following reports that Russians were fortifying positions in
the port town of Poti. COMMENT: Contacts appeared frustrated
with multiple copies of the French plan and with letters
exchanged regarding the interim provisions. Gutmann went so
far as to complain of French sloppiness allowing an opening
for the Russians to demand more.


4. (C) Regardless of what occurs over the next 24 hours,
Reichel stated that Russia's relations with Germany and the
EU more broadly have suffered because of Russian troops
entering Georgia. He underscored a common theme in Berlin
that Russia also has harmed its relations with CIS countries.
Members from the German Institute for International and
Security Affairs have emphasized on separate occasions that
Russia will face increased difficulties in the "near abroad"
as well as with Germany due to Russian military actions.


5. (C) Reichel remains concerned by the proposed vote next
week in the Russian parliament regarding recognizing Abkhazia
and South Ossetia as independent states. If the parliament
votes to recognize the two as independent and the Kremlin
agrees, Reichel expected a major setback in German-Russian
relations. If the parliament instead voted to recommend
recognition to the Kremlin, and President Medvedev avoided
taking that step, Reichel expected a more measured response
from Germany.


6. (C) Overall, Reichel and Gutmann viewed the possibility of
an EU peacekeeping force positively, but Reichel did not see
a decision being reached next week in Brussels. He
emphasized that several difficult questions must be answered
first. For example, he was uncertain whether it would be
responsible for the EU to send unarmed observers into a
dangerous situation and whether an EU consensus was possible.
Although the GOG supports the idea of the EU playing a role
in peacekeeping, Reichel expects a final determination to
take some time.
TIMKEN JR