SERBIA: KARADZIC APPEAL PENDING WHILE PROTEST LOOMS, EAC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000765 DEPARTMENT FOR DS/CC, DS/IP/EUR SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O.12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC KAWC SR SUBJECT: SERBIA: KARADZIC APPEAL PENDING WHILE PROTEST LOOMS, EAC CONVENED TODAY FOR JULY 29 DEMONSTRATION REF: A) BELGRADE 718, B) BELGRADE 744 Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) indictee and wartime leader of the Bosnian Serbs Radovan Karadzic remains in custody at the Special War Crimes Court in Belgrade pending receipt of his extradition appeal, which his lawyer reportedly mailed to the Special Court. Serbian officials, including President Boris Tadic and ICTY coordinator Rasim Ljajic, have been receiving anonymous death threats for arresting Karadzic, and the Acting Public Prosecutor has opened an investigation into comments against President Tadic by a senior Serbian Radical Party (SRS) official. Small protests against the arrest continued throughout the weekend, and the Radicals plan a large rally for July 29, which Radical officials promise will be peaceful. A poll shows that most Serbian citizens believe in cooperation with the Hague tribunal even though most also believe it is biased against Serbia. End Summary. Karadzic Mailed Appeal Just Under Deadline -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Under Serbian law, Karadzic had three days from the court's ruling to extradite him to appeal the ruling (Ref A). A spokesperson for the Belgrade District Court told us July 28 that the court's Special War Crimes Chamber still had not received Karadzic's appeal of his extradition to ICTY. According to press reports, Karadzic's brother Luka stated that Karadzic's lawyer filed the appeal just before the deadline Friday, July 25. Previously Karadzic's lawyer Svetozar Vujacic had told press he would mail the appeal at the last minute from an unnamed location. The law requires that the appeal be postmarked -- not received -- before the deadline. The press speculated Vujacic mailed the appeal from abroad or a small rural post office to delay receipt as long as possible. By law, once the Special Court receives the appeal, it has three days to rule but may take less time. Top Officials Receiving Threats -------------- ¶3. (U) According to media reports, President Boris Tadic, National Council on Cooperation with the Hague Tribunal head Rasim Ljajic, War Crimes Prosecutor Vladimir Vukcevic, and Interior Minister and Socialist Party (SPS) head Ivica Dacic have received a series of anonymous threatening phone calls and letters. In addition, SRS officials have made threatening remarks about Tadic. Senior SRS official and MP Vjerica Radeta stated at a July 25 press conference that Tadic was a traitor and could share the fate of late Prime Minister Djindjic, who was assassinated outside a government building in 2003. SRS Secretary General Aleksandar Vucic supported Radeta's statement and also called Tadic a traitor. Acting Public Prosecutor Slobodan Radovanovic has requested the tape and transcript of the press conference and is opening an investigation into Radeta's comments. Radical Rally Planned for July 29 -------------- ¶4. (U) Small nightly protests continued each night through the weekend (reftels). While most of the protests took place without incident, on July 24 protestors beat a B92 cameraman, who sustained a broken shin and remains in the hospital. ¶5. (SBU) SRS announced a rally for July 29 at 19:00 (local). Police told us that the rally would begin in Republic Square at 19:00, followed by a march around the downtown area (note: but not past the embassy) and that SRS is cooperating with police to maintain a peaceful demonstration. The police have not yet provided estimated attendance, although the expectation is that the July 29 will be much larger than the Obraz-organized events of the past several days. (One Democratic Party contact predicted that the Radicals could mobilize up to 200,000 participants, but we have not heard this from our security contacts.) RSO has an open line with the director of police and commander of the anti-terrorism unit protecting the embassy. ¶6. (SBU) Vucic announced that SRS would provide 2,000 individuals to secure the rally and also personal security for each journalist covering the rally. Vucic called for a peaceful demonstration and specifically mentioned that protestors should not burn government buildings. Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) and New Serbia (NS) officials and leaders of ultranationalist groups told reporters they would attend. The event is to be a rally against the "dictatorship" of President Tadic, SRS official Nemanja Sarovic said at a press BELGRADE 00000765 002 OF 002 conference. Belgrade City Assembly Postponed -------------- ¶7. (U) According to press reports, in response to the rally announcement, the Liberal Democratic Party proposed postponing the scheduled Belgrade city assembly session scheduled for July 28. LDP suggested the postponement because "rhetoric and violence from the street could transfer to the city assembly." The assembly speaker declared a lack of quorum when only SRS and DSS appeared at the session. The speaker has yet to schedule the next session, which must meet and select a mayor before August 22 to avoid new municipal elections. Most observers remain confident that the DS-SPS-LDP agreement to elect Dragan Djilas will hold. Poll Shows Citizens' Opinions Divided -------------- ¶8. (U) According to a poll by Strategic Marketing for the National Council for Cooperation with the Hague Tribunal, 70% of citizens support cooperation with ICTY even though 86% believe the court is subjective and biased against Serbia. Just over half of those polled do not support extraditions to the tribunal, while 42% are in favor. The poll also found that 42% see Karadzic as neither a hero nor a criminal, one-third consider him a hero, and 17% consider him a criminal. Kostunica Sees Beginning of End of RS -------------- ¶9. (U) In his first interview since stepping down as Prime Minister, DSS head Vojislav Kostunica told Serbian daily Glas Javnosti July 28 that ICTY was an unjust institution and Karadzic's trial would be a trial of the legitimacy of the Republika Srpska (RS). By contrast, the Serbian press carried statements by Republika Srpska Prime Minister Milorad Dodik that the arrest was a relief for the Republika Srpska, which could now move forward in its international relations. Dodik cautioned that Karadzic should be treated as a defendant not a convict and expressed hope Karadzic's trial would be fair, according to local press. Local press also reported that Dodik offered Karadzic's family assistance in keeping with the RS policy of assisting the families of Hague indictees, and requested that High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina Miroslav Lajcak return the family's passports so they could visit Karadzic. EAC Meets to Discuss Demonstration -------------- ¶10. (SBU) The EAC met on July 28 to discuss post's security posture for the July 29 demonstration. The embassy will close at 15:00 on July 29 as a precaution. Post has sent out a warden notice and all mission personnel have been advised to avoid the downtown area. The EAC deemed post's current security posture adequate. Comment -------------- ¶11. (SBU) While the Special Court is likely to rule quickly against Karadzic's extradition appeal, his attorney's technique of mailing the appeal could result in several days' delay. While we have not to date seen serious consquences from the small nightly rallies, Karadzic's continued presence in town for the big rally on July 29 could be an incentive for greater turnout. The poll results confirm our assessment that the majority of Serbian citizens know ICTY cooperation is a necessary part of Serbia's path to Europe but are not yet ready to confront the past. Given the lack of enthusiastic support from the majority of the population for Karadzic, and the Radicals' diminished resources to bus participants, a rally on the scale of the February events seems unlikely. Post is nevertheless taking all necessary precautions to handle a large, angry, probably alcohol-fueled, crowd. End Comment. BRUSH