SERBIA: SOCIALISTS ACCEPT COALITION WITH PRO-EUROPEAN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000625 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O.12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL SR SUBJECT: SERBIA: SOCIALISTS ACCEPT COALITION WITH PRO-EUROPEAN FORCES REF: Belgrade 616 Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) After weeks of slow progress, President Tadic's "For a European Serbia" coalition and the Socialists launched and quickly concluded formal coalition negotiations over the weekend. The Main Board of the Socialist Party voted overwhelmingly on June 23 in favor of a coalition with pro-European forces, paving the way for a parliamentary session on June 24 to elect a speaker. The formation of the government is expected to happen quickly, with Tadic's Democratic Party taking the Prime Minister slot and Socialist leader Ivica Dacic becoming a Deputy Prime Minister. End summary. Formal Negotiations Finally Begin -------------- ¶2. (U) The Socialist Party (SPS) announced on June 21 that their negotiations with the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) and the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) had concluded, and launched formal negotiations with President Tadic's Democratic Party (DS) that night at DS party headquarters which continued through the weekend. ¶3. (SBU) We understand that G-17 Plus leader Mladjan Dinkic refused to participate directly in the negotiations, complicating the process. Dinkic was reportedly unhappy with the proposed deal that would give G-17 Plus and SPS the same number of ministerial slots, and is holding out for the Speaker of Parliament position, the European integration portfolio, or the Ministry of Finance. SPS Votes on Monday for Coalition -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The 300-member SPS main board met at 15:00 on June 23 to vote on the DS coalition offer. Dacic's chief of staff Milisav Premovic confirmed to us as the session concluded at 17:30 that the board had voted for the coalition with President Tadic's "For a European Serbia" by a margin of 286 to 11. Premovic said the exact allocation of portfolios was not discussed during the session, but that the deal for SPS remained the same as Dacic had described to us the previous week (reftel). Predicted Ministerial Portfolios -------------- ¶5. (U) Speculation in the media regarding the division of ministerial portfolios has settled on a core group of names. The daily Vecernje Novosti predicted on June 23 that the cabinet would be divided as follows: Prime Minister: either Mirko Svetkovic or Bojan Pajtic from the DS; (Note: We received information from one source late today that current FM Jeremic may be making a push for the Prime Minister position. Vuk's name has dropped from the press speculation, but he did have an opportunity to influence President Tadic during their trip to New York this past weekend. End Note) Deputy Prime Ministers: SPS leader Ivica Dacic (with responsibility for security),Dinkic from G-17 Plus, PUPS leader Jovan Krkobabic, and possibly Oliver Dulic from the DS (with responsibility for European integration; another scenario puts Dulic in charge of a new Ministry for European Integration); Key ministries for DS: Trade (Slobodan Milosavljevic, currently Minister of Agriculture),Foreign Affairs (incumbent Vuk Jeremic), Defense (incumbent Dragan Sutanovac),Justice (incumbent Dusan Petrovic),Public Administration and Local Government (incumbent Milan Markovic),and Finance (Janko Guzijan, currently State Secretary at MOF); Key ministries for SPS: Interior (Dacic),Energy (Petar Skundric), Infrastructure (Milutin Mrkonjic, if he is not selected as Speaker of Parliament),and Education (Zarko Obradovic); Key ministries for G-17 Plus: National Investment Plan (Verica Kalanovic),Health (incumbent Tomica Milosavljevic),Youth and Sport (incumbent Snezana Samardzic Markovic),Telecommunications (Jasna Matic),and Culture (either Hebojsa Bradic or Goran Paskalivic); Bosniak parties: Labor and Social Policy (incumbent Rasim Ljajic, head of the Sandzak Democratic Party),and the new Ministry of Regional Development (Bajram Omeragic of Sulaiman Ugljanin's Sandzak Democratic Action Party). BELGRADE 00000625 002 OF 002 Kosovo Ministry: May be abolished. ¶6. (SBU) Ivan Andric from the LDP confirmed to us that members of parliament were formally notified on June 23 that the Parliament will continue its constitutive session on June 24 at 4:00 pm. Acting speaker Jovan Krkobabic will chair the session, which began on June 11; the first order of business will presumably be to elect a speaker. SPS clearly expects the position to go to their candidate Slavica Djukic Dejanovic; G-17 Plus had put forward their whip Suzana Grubjesic for the job. ¶7. (U) President Tadic must appoint a candidate for Prime Minister, who will make public the exact composition of the cabinet and call for a vote. We do not yet have a timeline for these next steps. ¶8. (SBU) Comment: With government negotiations having stretched on for over six weeks, the cohesion of Tadic's own coalition was starting to unravel as smaller parties such as G-17 Plus began demanding a bigger part of the pie. Tadic appears to recognize that the time had come to finalize the negotiations and took action. End comment. PEDERSON