SERBIA: VOJVODINA PROVINCIAL RUNOFF ELECTIONS MAY INFLUENCE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000508 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL SR SUBJECT: SERBIA: VOJVODINA PROVINCIAL RUNOFF ELECTIONS MAY INFLUENCE NATIONAL COALITION-BUILDING REF: A) BELGRADE 468, B) BELGRADE 474, C) 2007 BELGRADE 1364, D) BELGRADE 500 BELGRADE 00000508 001.2 OF 002 Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Runoff elections for the autonomous Vojvodina province's provincial parliament will take place on May 25. Voters already chose the half of the parliament that is based on proportional representation and will choose the remaining, directly elected seats in the runoff. The Democratic Party (DS)-led ticket is in a strong position to form a coalition with the support of the League of Vojvodina Social Democrats and the Hungarian Coalition. Although a pro-European government in Vojvodina could clash with a Radical-led government in Belgrade over European integration and centralization of power, positive results in Vojvodina could help the DS position at the national level. End Summary. Direct Election for Parliamentary Seats in Vojvodina Province -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) Voters in the autonomous province of Vojvodina will head to the polls on Sunday, May 25, for runoff elections for Vojvodina's Parliament. The first round of provincial elections took place on May 11 along with national and local level elections (ref A). Half of the 120 seats are allocated by proportional representation, i.e. party lists. Voters select the remaining 60 representatives by direct election in single-member districts. None of the candidates for the 60 district seats gained a majority on May 11, leaving all the seats in play in Sunday's runoff election. After the runoff, the leading parties will form a coalition. (A DS coalition currently governs Vojvodina.) DS Coalition Leading -------------- ¶3. (U) According to the official first round results, the DS-led For a European Vojvodina coalition won 23 of the 60 proportional election seats. The Radicals won 20 seats. The Together for Vojvodina coalition, led by Nenad Canak's League of Vojvodina Social Democrats (LSV),and the Hungarian Coalition each won five seats. The Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) - New Serbia (NS) ticket won four seats. The Socialists (SPS) won three seats. ¶4. (SBU) In the May 25 runoff, For a European Vojvodina has 51 �0A;candidates, and the Radicals have 39 candidates. The Hungarian Coalition has 11 candidates, Together for Vojvodina has two candidates, and the DSS-NS has four candidates. Nenad Canak predicted to us on May 13 that For a European Vojvodina, Together for Vojvodina, and the Hungarian Coalition would most likely form a coalition in the Vojvodina parliament. He said DS was in a good position for the second round of the direct elections, and the parties' lists together would easily gain enough seats for a majority. On May 16, Canak added that the speaker would be the Hungarian Coalition's Istvan Pasztor, who had conditioned his support for DS at the provincial and national level on obtaining this position. (Note: Pasztor is a former presidential candidate and in general has been very supportive of advocating for minorities and diversity in Serbia. End Note.) Canak hoped to be Novi Sad Mayor in a coalition government for the city, but that decision would be part of the national level negotiations (ref B). Radicals Have a Chance -------------- ¶5. (SBU) A Radical win in Vojvodina is not impossible. The multi-ethnic province, which is home to several communities of Radical-leaning internally displaced persons and refugees from the wars of the 1990s, has long hosted subdued tensions between BELGRADE 00000508 002.2 OF 002 the pro-European and reactionary forces. While attacks on religious and ethnic minorities have not been increasing, they remain a significant problem and police (controlled by the DSS in Belgrade) often do not respond. A series of public events organized by "skin-head" Nazi youth groups (which Canak claimed were orchestrated by DSS) in 2007 prompted Canak and others to hold "anti-fascist" counter-events (ref C). Likely Tension if Radicals Take National Government -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Gordana Matkovic, President Tadic's (DS) social affairs advisor and rumored candidate for Prime Minister (ref D),told us on May 21 that she expected the pro-European parties to form the Vojvodina provincial government. Matkovic warned that in the event the radical-nationalist camp formed the national government, an eventuality she could not exclude, tensions between Vojvodina and the center would grow. The autonomous province, with its strong economy and historical ties to Western Europe, would continue to favor EU accession and be eager for greater autonomy -- a demand that a radical-nationalist central government would undoubtedly refuse. Comment -------------- ¶7. (SBU) If the expected DS-led regional coalition comes to pass, pro-European forces may gain additional bargaining power at the national level. While a DS-led Vojvodina locking horns with a radical-nationalist national government could lead to increased center-regional tensions, the more likely scenario is that a Vojvodina win will help the DS in its national-level coalition negotiations. End Comment. MUNTER