SERBIA: MAY 11 ELECTION PRIMER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000461 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL SR SUBJECT: SERBIA: MAY 11 ELECTION PRIMER REF: A) BELGRADE 206, B) BELGRADE 450, C) BELGRADE 452 BELGRADE 00000461 001.2 OF 002 Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Serbian citizens in Serbia and Serbs in Kosovo will head to the polls on May 11 to elect a new Serbian Parliament and local municipal assemblies. The main contenders for the national parliament are the Democratic Party and the Serbian Radical Party's tickets, but either party would need at least two additional coalition partners to form a government, according to the latest poll numbers. At the national level, the elections are likely to be followed by weeks of political haggling between potential coalition partners resulting in continued dysfunction. End Summary. How to Elect a Serbian Parliament -------------- ¶2. (U) Serbia's Parliament is a single chamber of 250 MPs, with the whole territory of Serbia comprising a single electoral district. (The Government of Serbia includes Kosovo in this territory.) A total of 22 political parties or coalitions are running in the parliamentary elections, including 10 from minority communities. Each electoral ticket can submit a list of up to 250 candidates, and the electorate votes for one specific party list by secret ballot. A ticket must gain at least 5% of the total turnout to receive any seats. Minority parties only require 0.4% of the vote to obtain a seat in parliament. Parties then choose which candidates from their lists will fill the seats they win. The Republican Electoral Commission (RIK) is to announce results by midnight May 15. Afterwards, the Parliament convenes after the parties and the RIK confirm at least two-thirds of MPs. Parliament must convene within 30 days of the certification of election results and begin the process of forming a new government. The installed Parliament then has 90 days to confirm a government. End of Campaign and Opening of Polls -------------- ¶3. (U) The parties concluded their final campaign rallies on May ¶8. The approximately 8,000 polls will open at 7 am on May 11 and close at 8 pm. As of May 9, there is a media blackout on campaigning in effect until the closing of polls. There are 6.7 million registered voters in Serbia and the diaspora. The Election Commission allows absentee voting and at the last minute swamped embassies with visa applications for hundreds of elections observers to monitor the diaspora voting; 114 observers are going to the United States alone. A Snapshot of the Contenders -------------- ¶4. (U) Serbia's current Parliament has been in office since February 2007. President Boris Tadic called for new elections on March 13 after ongoing gridlock between Tadic's Democratic Party (DS) and Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) over differences regarding Serbia's European integration and the government's response to Kosovo's declaration of independence (ref A). The main contenders are the western-leaning "For a European Serbia" coalition ticket and the nationalist Serbian Radical Party (SRS),but neither party is likely to secure a majority of seats (refs B, C). Smaller parties such as the DSS, the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), and the strongly pro-European Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could be decisive in forming any future coalition government. ¶5. (SBU) According to the latest May 8 poll, the SRS ticket has 35% and the "For a European Serbia" Coalition has 32%. The DSS-New Serbia Party ticket polled 14%, LDP 8%, and SPS 8%. No two likely coalition parties would have a majority based on these numbers. Two likely results are a coalition of the BELGRADE 00000461 002.2 OF 002 Radicals with DSS and SPS or a coalition of "For a European Serbian" coalition with LDP and SPS. Most likely, parties will require the full 90 days after Parliament convenes to form the new government. Vojvodina Provincial and Local Elections -------------- ¶6. (U) There are 120 deputies in the Vojvodina Assembly, Serbia's autonomous province, which has a measure of self-government under the 2006 constitution. Half of the MPs are elected on the basis of proportional representation, with voters choosing parties, and half are elected by majority in electoral units. ¶7. (U) Voters will also choose deputies in 24 city and 150 municipal assemblies. New in the Electoral Law this year, voters will no longer choose mayors directly. After the elections, the new municipal assemblies will choose a mayor. Critics view this as a blow to decentralization, enabling the parties in Belgrade to control the municipalities. Proponents argue that mayors and the majority in the municipal assembly will be from the same party, ensuring smoother functioning of municipal governments. Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) If the poll numbers are correct, neither SRS nor DS could pull together a coalition without including at least two additional parties. The "For a European Serbia" coalition with LDP and SPS is particularly problematic given that the latter two claim to refuse to be in government together. With all the campaign rhetoric of the past weeks and the parties' increasing polarization, any resulting coalition partners will be strange bedfellows, resulting most likely in another, probably short-lived, dysfunctional government. End Comment. MUNTER