SERBIA: DEMOCRATS AND RADICALS STILL NECK AND NECK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000450 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KV SR SUBJECT: SERBIA: DEMOCRATS AND RADICALS STILL NECK AND NECK REF: BELGRADE 426 BELGRADE 00000450 001.4 OF 002 Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Serbia's radical and democratic parties are still running neck-and-neck toward the May 11 parliamentary elections. Despite tabloid press reports showing the democratic coalition with a small lead over the Radicals, more accurate polling data shows the Radicals maintaining its slight lead. President Tadic's Democratic Party is counting on a bump up in support following the April 29 signing a Stabilization and Association Agreement with the European Union, but there is no reliable data yet to see if this move bore fruit. With more pronouncements about which parties will "never work with x" than who will work with each other, the next government of the Republic of Serbia, even if the pro-Europe coalition wins, is likely to be largely dysfunctional. End Summary. Radicals Slightly in the Lead -------------- ¶2. (SBU) According to Strategic Marketing's current data (conducted April 28-May 1) the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) leads with 33.2% of the vote to the Democratic Party's (DS) 31.5% -- a less than 2% difference. The Democratic Party of Serbia - New Serbia coalition (DSS-NS) is polling at 13.8%, and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) each have 7.5% of the vote. Minority parties share 4.5%. (Strategic Marketing's Director Srdjan Bogosavljevic discounted and publicly corrected incomplete Strategic Marketing polling results leaked on May 5 that set DS at 35.5% to SRS's 32.8% and DSS's 17.3%.) Democratic Party Optimistic of an SAA "Bounce" -------------- - ¶3. (SBU) DS maintains that the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) increased its numbers. Parliament Speaker Oliver Dulic (DS) told poloff on May 5 that the signing of the SAA provided the DS "a big boost" and that he was "extremely optimistic" about the election. Without citing a specific data source, Dulic said the DS was now polling almost 40%, two points higher than the Radicals. (We suspect rounding: Dulic's foreign policy advisor Lidija Bartus-Vasiljevic quoted Dulic as pegging DS at 37.5%.) "Without any big mistakes over the next several days, we [the DS] should be okay," Dulic said. At a separate �00A;event on May 5, a bouyant and confident Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic (DS) told poloff (unofficialy at the Israeli National Day reception) that the SAA had given the DS the edge it needed, polarizing the electorate, or at least the candidates, and giving the voters a real choice. Jeremic claimed a three-point bounce from the signing of the SAA, appearantly citing the erroneous Strategic Marketing data. Impact of SAA Unclear to Pollsters -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The International Republican Institute's (IRI) David Bell (AMCIT) told poloff on May 5 that the polls immediately following the SAA signing showed "no impact." In Belgrade over 78% of respondents were aware of the SAA signing. Of these, only 55% believed it was good for Serbia -- this, despite polling indicating that over 80% of Serbians want the country to join the European Union. Party support was unchanged. Bell thought the meaning of the SAA "had not sunk in yet." The impact of the SAA, he said, might not be known until May 11. Bogosavljevic agreed that current polling had not yet reflected the impact of the SAA. BELGRADE 00000450 002.4 OF 002 Parties Hardening Position on Coalitions -------------- ¶5. (U) Support for the SAA signing appears to be a litmus test for some politicians in selecting potential partners in hypothetical government coalitions. New Serbia leader Velimir Ilic told the daily tabloid "Press" on May 4 that the signing of the SAA meant "the end of any cooperation with [the DS].... Our pre-condition is that post-election coalitions cannot be negotiated with traitors who violate the constitution and sell out Kosovo and Metohija," "Press" quoted Ilic. Ilic said that talks with parties who wished to preserve Kosovo as a part of Serbia would take place after the elections. ¶6. (U) DS caucus head Nada Kolundzija told "Press" on May 5 that the DS would not negotiate a coalition government with DSS-NS. "Velimir Ilic says he won't go with DS, but the truth is we won't go with them. We will not make coalitions with forces that want to isolate Serbia from Europe, and Ilic's party is one of those," Kolundzija said. Asked about a possible post-election coalition with the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) Kolundzija said SPS had not yet made its stance towards EU clear, so DS had not ruled out a coalition with the Socialists. ¶7. (SBU) In fact, DS insiders speculated privately about the utility and likelihood of a DS-SPS deal. FM Jeremic told poloff that he expected the DS to win and to form a government with either SPS or LDP or both, although the prospect of SPS and LDP accepting one another as coalition partners he acknowledged to be slim. A likely scenario would have one in the government and the other supporting in parliament. Jeremic said that he could not envision another DS-DSS coalition. Bartus-Vasiljevic quoted Dulic's certainty that DS would go into a coalition with SPS, and said that SPS presidential candidate Milutin Mrkonjic would become Speaker of the Parliament. Socialists Swing -------------- ¶8. (SBU) SPS is hedging their bets and, at least in public, leaving open the possibility of joining an SRS government. Privately, they are less keen about that option, but reluctant to lose votes of their more hard-line members. The party is directing its social justice agenda toward Serbia's 1.6 million pensioners, 500,000 citizens lacking medical insurance, and one million unemployed. SPS leader Ivica Dacic, told poloff on April 30 that party leadership wanted to change public perception of SPS, from the party of Milosevic to the party of Serbia's left. Dacic said that SPS expected to take at least 7% of the vote on May 11 and hoped to participate in Serbia's next government, whether DS- or SRS- dominated, with the Social Welfare and Labor Ministry being the party's logical cabinet seat. That said, alliance with either party posed problems for SPS, Dacic said. SRS, he said, wished to steal SPS members, and SPS participation in an SRS coalition would eventually realize that goal. On the other hand, the SPS would also be hard-pressed to join forces with the DS if the LDP were part of the coalition. Comment -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Although the two most likely scenarios remain the SRS with DSS or the DS with LDP either coalition would require SPS support, making the election too tough to call. Though the pro-Europe coalition remains the better option for Serbia's democratic development, it still remains a largely dysfunctional option. End Comment. MUNTER