SERBIA GETS SAA, DEMOCRATS WIN BACK INITIATIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000426 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KPAO PBTS PGOV PHUM PINR PREL SR SUBJECT: SERBIA GETS SAA, DEMOCRATS WIN BACK INITIATIVE REF: A) BELGRADE 414, B) BELGRADE 418 BELGRADE 00000426 001.2 OF 002 SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) A late-breaking decision by the EU to sign the SAA with Serbia boosts President Boris Tadic's Democratic Party coalition in advance of May 11 elections. Deputy Prime Minister Bozidar Djelic plans to travel to Luxembourg to sign today (April 29). Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic benefits politically due to his close involvement in the deal. Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, now on the defensive, must decide how to retaliate against Tadic for proceeding with the signing, which Kostunica has called an unconstitutional act. End Summary. BIG BREAK FOR THE DEMOCRATS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) A Serbian official will sign the Stabilization and Accession Agreement with the EU in a move that will boost the Democratic Party (DS) bloc's standing in advance of May 11 elections. Following an April 29 decision by the EU Foreign Ministers to offer Serbia an SAA, Foreign Ministry Chief of Staff confirmed to poloff that Deputy Prime Minister Bozidar Djelic (DS) will travel to sign the document in Luxembourg. An advisor in Djelic's office also confirmed to econoff that Djelic and several staff members left quickly midday on April 29 for Luxembourg. As a sign of how quickly the agreement emerged, just two hours earlier Djelic's staff told econoff that they hoped to sign the SAA on April 30 in Brussels. In interviews with local and international media, prior to the noon announcement of the GAERC to offer Serbia an SAA signing, President Boris Tadic said, if offered the opportunity, Serbia would sign because "it is a legal and legitimate decision by the government" and the majority of Serbs want it. Media reports confirm that Tadic will also travel to Luxembourg on April 29 to attend the signing ceremony. JEREMIC'S STOCK INCREASES -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic (DS) benefits politically from this development due to his personal investment in Serbia's effort to get an SAA. In various speeches and media interviews (such as in reftel A),Jeremic delineated his extensive case for an SAA for Serbia. He has taken some credit for the offer, telling the press on April 29 that he was "very happy that [Serbia's] diplomatic and political efforts worked out in the end" to produce "a great political moment." In a preview of how the DS will market the agreement, Jeremic told the press the EU's decision would effectively turn the May 11 elections in Serbia into a "referendum on EU membership." FRENCH SUPPORT -------------- ¶4. (SBU) French Charge Michel Charbonnier told Charge on April 29 that French Foreign Minister Kouchner had exerted considerable personal energy in getting the Dutch, and also the Belgians, not to block the SAA. According to Charbonnier, the Dutch were intent on moving Serbia closer to ratification status, by having Serbia cooperate more with the International War Crimes Tribunal, but the French argued that the signature was enough to indicate intent. Charbonnier said he considered offering Serbia an SAA an EU success. Charbonnier said he hoped that with a signed SAA, DS would have little reason to consider another coalition government with Kostunica's DSS. KOSTUNICA'S MOVE BELGRADE 00000426 002.2 OF 002 -------------- ¶5. (SBU) As reported in reftel B, Prime Minister Kostunica and his Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) had challenged the legitimacy of any Serbian official to sign the SAA. Kostunica repeatedly warned Tadic in press interviews that the signing the SAA would violate the Serbian constitution because the EU had not clarified its position on whether Kosovo was a part of Serbia. Along with the EU's intent to deploy its mission to Kosovo (EULEX),Kostunica said that a new government would have to empower a Serbian official to sign an SAA and that Djelic no longer had the authority to do so. Signaling a challenge ahead, media reported on April 29 that Kostunica maintained his position that the signing of the SAA would be "an anti-state act counter to the Constitution." POLLSTERS: IT'S UP TO DS SPIN -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Pollsters agreed that the SAA signing would help the DS bloc but would need "serious" spin efforts to turn the news into votes. Marko Blagojevic at the Center for Free Society and Democracy (CeSID) told poloff on April 29 that it was "impossible to evaluate effects" until next week, but expected the DS to benefit directly. Blagojevic said that the DS could win back some "soft" supporters of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and possibly end up with more votes than the Radicals (SRS). Milka Puzigaca from SCAN Polling warned that the DS needed to counter "voter apathy" now that the SAA was signed. Srbobran Brankovic of Medium/Gallup said he expected "minor" changes in tracking polls but thought most undecided voters would remain undecided. All pollsters stressed that "DS spin" would determine whether Tadic and his bloc would reap political benefits from the SAA. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (SBU) This is a significant victory win for the Democrats, especially Tadic and Jeremic. For the first time since Tadic's narrow February reelection, the DS holds the political initiative and Kostunica is forced to react. In February, Tadic refused Kostunica's demands (in exchange for DSS support of his presidential campaign) to abandon an SAA as long as the EU intended to deploy EULEX. Tadic won reelection helped by this show of strength and principle, but Kostunica responded by letting the government collapse over the issue. Now, fuelled by a major achievement with Brussels, the DS bloc has the chance to portray itself as the only political force able to deliver Serbia to the EU, something consistently supported by 80% of Serbians in polls. The extent of the SAA's impact will be measured by the Democrats' ability to turn this success into votes on May 11 while fending off Kostunica's accusations of selling out Kosovo. End Summary. BRUSH