SOUTHERN SERBIA COPES WITH NEW POLITICAL REALITIES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000372

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO PBTS PGOV PHUM PINR PREL SR
SUBJECT: SOUTHERN SERBIA COPES WITH NEW POLITICAL REALITIES


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Summary

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1. (SBU) In addition to the ongoing challenge of its integration
with the rest of Serbia, the ethnically-mixed Presevo Valley is
struggling with the impact of Kosovo independence on links
across the new border. Politically, ethnic Albanian leaders are
still divided between two camps: pro-integration moderates
favoring cooperation with Belgrade and hardliners against. May
elections will determine which camp is stronger. Serb and
Albanian leaders told the Ambassador during an early April visit
that the region is calm because assistance from Belgrade and the
international community has improved quality of life.
Businesses reported problems exporting goods to Kosovo (a major
source of revenue for this region) and mayors raised concerns
about whether Republic of Kosovo certificates (such as diplomas)
will be accepted in Serbia. End Summary.



Political Landscape

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2. (SBU) Serb and Albanian leaders in Southern Serbia were
focused on upcoming local and national elections. Albanian
leaders remain divided over whether to participate in
parliamentary elections. Riza Halimi's Party for Democratic
Action (PVD) planned to run for parliament but Halimi told the
Ambassador on April 8 that prospects were bleak due to divisions
within his coalition, the threat of a boycott from hardliners
and the requirement for minority lists to gather 10,000 votes.
Halimi complained that the higher threshold (7,000 more than in
January 2007) disproportionately affected his community due to
their small number of voters and lack of cooperation from large
national parties. (Since the meeting, the Liberal Democratic
Party has begun assisting the Presevo Valley Albanians to
collect signatures and NDI is looking for ways to help.) Halimi
told the Ambassador that Pristina leaders had been "more
supportive" of Presevo Valley Albanian participation in Serbian
elections in January 2007 than now. Halimi said the public
comments by Albanian Prime Minister Berisha were "especially
helpful" to the pro-participation bloc. Halimi told the
Ambassador that Presevo Mayor Ragmi Mustafa and Bujanovac Deputy
Mayor Jonuz Musliu were repeating their efforts to suppress
Presevo Valley Albanian turnout without an outright call for a
boycott. Halimi said that he and coalition partner Skender
Destani had been branded "national traitors" in a leaflet
campaign sanctioned by Musliu, Mustafa and war veterans last
year and expected the same again.




3. (SBU) Presevo Mayor and hardliner Mustafa said it would be
"ridiculous" for Presevo Valley Albanians to participate in
national elections. Mustafa told the Ambassador on April 8 that
he would not call for Albanians to boycott the national
elections and later mischaracterized his meeting with the
Ambassador to local press, falsely claiming the Ambassador had
agreed with his decision not to participate. The Ambassador
clarified to both local and national media on April 9 that Mayor
Mustafa had assured him there would be no boycott and reiterated
support for all Serbian citizens to vote in national elections.



Presevo Valley Serbs

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4. (SBU) Democratic-bloc Serb leaders in the Presevo Valley were
frustrated that national politics was dominating the local
election campaign. Nenad Manic, head of the Democratic Party
(DS) branch in Presevo, told the Ambassador on April 8 that the
DS-bloc's pro-EU message "was not resonating" in this poor,
rural region of Serbia. He complained that the DS had "lost
control" on social issues, ceding these to the Radicals by
appearing out of touch or corrupt to the average voter and their
links with tycoons were especially harmful. Manic said the
region was cut off despite its location, noting that only 7% of

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the citizens in nearby Leskovac (a former textile center dubbed
"Serbian Manchester") held passports, with even fewer in
Southern Serbia.




5. (SBU) Moderate Serbs and Albanians blamed hardliners in
Belgrade for disrupting interethnic cooperation with their
nationalist agenda. Manic told the Ambassador that Prime
Minister Kostunica (DSS) was the "main barrier" to regional
progress because he was holding EU-integration "hostage" over
Kosovo. Former Bujanovac Mayor (and ethnic Serb) Stojanca Arsic
said nationalists like Kostunica stalled implementation of the
2001 Covic Plan which was to stabilize and integrate Southern
Serbia after the 2001 unrest. Arsic said that while the
security situation was calm, the economic elements of the plan
(creating jobs, improving infrastructure) were just as
important. Arsic praised Halimi for raising these issues in
Parliament but expressed disappointment that Halimi was attacked
by Socialist and Radical MPs in response. Arsic and Manic both
said they hoped to cobble together moderate Serb-Albanian
coalitions if possible after May 11 elections as both said
progress in the region would be impossible with that kind of
cooperation on shared goals.



New Challenges

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6. (SBU) Political and business leaders told the Ambassador they
were worried about some of the local impacts of Kosovo
independence. Dairy producers (a key local industry),both Serb
and Albanians, said they recently started having difficulty
exporting their products to Kosovo, on the Kosovo side of the
border. The dairy owners, who receive assistance from the USG
from SCOPES, told the Ambassador that authorities in Kosovo
required new certifications but it was difficult to find out
specifics of the new requirements. They did not report any GOS
obstructions to trade. (Assistant Kosovo Minister Branislava
Alendar told poloff on April 9 that the GOS was not obstructing
any trade from Serbia to Kosovo.) These Serb and Albanian
business owners worried they may lose a critical export market
in Kosovo.




7. (SBU) Presevo Valley Albanian leaders worried about whether
Kosovo university certificates would be accepted in Serbia after
independence. Many Presevo Valley Albanians complete higher
studies in Pristina. Both Halimi and Bujanovac Mayor Nagip
Arifi told the Ambassador they were concerned that if the
certificates had "Republic of Kosovo" printed on them they would
not be acceptable documents in Bujanovac and Presevo. Halimi
and Arifi hoped that students could get access to a second
diploma or some other mutually acceptable solution that would
allow their constituents to return with an advanced degree and
work in Southern Serbia.



Comment

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8. (SBU) Southern Serbia, surrounded on three sides by
neighboring countries and blessed with a major European highway
route, has a solid basis for economic growth. With continuing
international assistance, this poor region should overcome the
newest challenges in the aftermath of Kosovo independence.
Moderate Serbs and Albanians agree that investment from the U.S.
and other donors has played a critical role in stabilizing the
region and keeping Belgrade engaged. It is more important than
ever, therefore, to keep Presevo Valley Albanians involved in
Serbian politics and to ensure that ramifications of Kosovo
independence do not break existing cultural and commercial ties
between Southern Serbia and Kosovo. End Comment.
MUNTER