SERBIA: LONG-TERM DAMAGE TO FOREIGN RELATIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000218 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SR XG KV SUBJECT: SERBIA: LONG-TERM DAMAGE TO FOREIGN RELATIONS BELGRADE 00000218 001.2 OF 002 Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) President Boris Tadic's Democratic Party (DS) and other pro-Western parties hope that Serbia will be able to return to European integration after Kosovo subsides. Others in government recognize that the freeze between Serbia and the EU may last longer. But even pro-European party insiders fail to realize that Serbia's aggressive reaction to Kosovo's independence, embodied by the activities of FM Jeremic, may have long term implications for its relations with the EU, its members, and the United States. End Summary. DS Hopes to Keep Working with EU -------------- ¶2. (SBU) DS officials in the party and in government believe Serbia will be able to pick up with the EU where it left off before Kosovo's declaration of independence once the immediate situation surrounding the loss of Kosovo dissipates. Despite the current situation, Deputy Prime Minister Bozidar Djelic still hoped to sign the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU by the end of the year, Djelic's advisor for European Integration, Ksenjija Milivojevic, told poloff on March ¶3. Milovejevic confided that there were no serious attempts right now to try to get the SAA signed earlier, but she said they were quietly working with the EU on moving forward with technical issues. In late February, the EU and Serbia discussed visa facilitation and were to sign an accord on financial arrangements, Milovejevic said. Djelic hopes to keep this interaction going so that Serbia would be eligible for EU candidate country status once it signs the SAA, she said. However, Milovejevic said the situation was becoming increasingly more difficult due to the EU's growing involvement in Kosovo. She cited EU/ International Civilian Representative Pieter Feith's statements on northern Kosovo as particularly difficult. ¶3. (SBU) Marko Djurisic, President of the DS Executive Committee, told poloff on March 7 he was hopeful that Serbia would soon return to the EU path, but admitted that his party was only following day to day tactics at this stage as it tried to resolve government gridlock on a unified way ahead. While insistent that the DS would not give up its EU focus, he gave no indications that the party had any longer term strategy for returning Serbia to the EU. MFA Looking for Clarity and Time -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Serbia's governmental bureaucracy appears more cautious in engaging with the EU, waiting for greater clarity from its divided government before proceeding. Serbia's EU integration efforts are on hold, and currently the MFA is "only providing advisory opinions to the government on EU issues", Marina Jovicevcic Director for the MFA's EU and Regional Initiatives told poloff on March 7. She expected that this period of inactivity could go on for "quite a few months. In the interim, Serbia may also need to further restrict its participation in regional forums whose members have recognized Kosovo, if it is to follow through on its Kosovo policy," Jovicevic said. Serbia had kept its Ambassador to the EU and had only withdrew its ambassadors to bilateral missions, she pointed out, noting it as a positive sign for continuing to engage with the EU. EU Concerned of Damaged Relationship -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The EU office in Belgrade cautioned that the government's rhetoric and actions against EULEX will cause BELGRADE 00000218 002.2 OF 002 problems for Serbia's pending Stabilization and Accession Agreement with the EU. EU representative Peter Sorensen told poloff on March 5 that while Brussels had worked to delink EULEX from Serbia's SAA process, it was the same group of EU ministers making decisions on both issues. Serbia does not appreciate the "psychology" of its aggressiveness towards EULEX, and its International Civilian Representative Pieter Feith, which "would not be forgotten" by EU members and could impair Serbia's efforts to get an SAA, Sorensen said. Advisors See Damage Being Done -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Former Tadic advisor and GOS Kosovo negotiator Leon Kojen told poloff on February 28 that Serbia would suffer consequences from attacking institutions rather than just policies. (Kojen resigned from Tadic's staff because he thought the president was going soft on Kosovo.) He said he was "surprised" that Kostunica, Kosovo Minister Samardzic and Infrastructure Minister Ilic reacted to Kosovo independence and "reprehensible" riots with "savage" attacks on the EU, US and western European governments. Kojen said that while it was "completely legitimate" to find fault with EULEX or EU policy, it was "damaging" to paint the EU itself as a sinister organization that "validated illegitimacy." Kojen said that Kostunica-led attacks on the United States (and other European countries that support Kosovo independence) were equally damaging for Serbia. Rather than opposing U.S. policy towards Kosovo and "pleading our case again" with a new U.S. administration, Kojen said Kostunica was wrong to unleash anti-Americanism as a political strategy. Kostunica's efforts, Kojen said, could affect Serbian citizens' perception of the United States, EU, and other countries for many years. Similarly, Nenad Djurdjevic, assistant to Minister Rasim Ljajic, told poloff on March 10 that it was "pragmatic" for Serbia to join the EU even if it disagreed with EULEX. Djurdjevic said it would be hard for the citizens to make this kind of choice with the political tensions so high in the aftermath of Kosovo's independence. ¶7. (SBU) Former G-17 official and foreign policy advisor Milan Pajevic told poloff on March 10 that the DS was unaware of the long term impact its policy would have with the international community. Pajevic said it would be hard for the DS to reconcile its pro-EU platform in upcoming parliamentary elections if Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic continued traveling the globe arguing Serbia's case for Kosovo. Pajevic called Jeremic's actions as unguided, referring to the "inexperienced" MFA as the "kindergarten foreign policy team." Pajevic said Tadic should "turn off" any additional similar international trips and comments by Jeremic to prevent further harm to Serbia's case for EU membership. ¶8. (SBU) Jeremic, especially, seems unaware that he is painting pro-European Serbs into a corner. His continued anti-EULEX statements and overheated rhetoric about Kosovo will make it that much harder to mend fences with the west. He has even stooped to Milosevic-era phrases on victimization of Serbs, emphasizing the humiliation of the nation at the hands of foreigners - all the while sending back channel messages to the embassy of his Atlanticist convictions. Comment -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Although the DS leadership may insist that it intends to get Serbia back on its European path as soon as possible, recent words and actions by the GOS against the EU most likely will impact that pace. The DS, particularly FM Jeremic, seems disconnected from the impact their stand on Kosovo is having with future foreign relations. End Comment. MUNTER