SERBIA: LONG-TERM DAMAGE TO FOREIGN RELATIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000218

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SR XG KV
SUBJECT: SERBIA: LONG-TERM DAMAGE TO FOREIGN RELATIONS


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Summary

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1. (SBU) President Boris Tadic's Democratic Party (DS) and
other pro-Western parties hope that Serbia will be able to
return to European integration after Kosovo subsides. Others in
government recognize that the freeze between Serbia and the EU
may last longer. But even pro-European party insiders fail to
realize that Serbia's aggressive reaction to Kosovo's
independence, embodied by the activities of FM Jeremic, may have
long term implications for its relations with the EU, its
members, and the United States. End Summary.



DS Hopes to Keep Working with EU

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2. (SBU) DS officials in the party and in government believe
Serbia will be able to pick up with the EU where it left off
before Kosovo's declaration of independence once the immediate
situation surrounding the loss of Kosovo dissipates. Despite
the current situation, Deputy Prime Minister Bozidar Djelic
still hoped to sign the Stabilization and Association Agreement
(SAA) with the EU by the end of the year, Djelic's advisor for
European Integration, Ksenjija Milivojevic, told poloff on March

3. Milovejevic confided that there were no serious attempts
right now to try to get the SAA signed earlier, but she said
they were quietly working with the EU on moving forward with
technical issues. In late February, the EU and Serbia discussed
visa facilitation and were to sign an accord on financial
arrangements, Milovejevic said. Djelic hopes to keep this
interaction going so that Serbia would be eligible for EU
candidate country status once it signs the SAA, she said.
However, Milovejevic said the situation was becoming
increasingly more difficult due to the EU's growing involvement
in Kosovo. She cited EU/ International Civilian Representative
Pieter Feith's statements on northern Kosovo as particularly
difficult.




3. (SBU) Marko Djurisic, President of the DS Executive
Committee, told poloff on March 7 he was hopeful that Serbia
would soon return to the EU path, but admitted that his party
was only following day to day tactics at this stage as it tried
to resolve government gridlock on a unified way ahead. While
insistent that the DS would not give up its EU focus, he gave no
indications that the party had any longer term strategy for
returning Serbia to the EU.



MFA Looking for Clarity and Time

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4. (SBU) Serbia's governmental bureaucracy appears more
cautious in engaging with the EU, waiting for greater clarity
from its divided government before proceeding. Serbia's EU
integration efforts are on hold, and currently the MFA is "only
providing advisory opinions to the government on EU issues",
Marina Jovicevcic Director for the MFA's EU and Regional
Initiatives told poloff on March 7. She expected that this
period of inactivity could go on for "quite a few months. In
the interim, Serbia may also need to further restrict its
participation in regional forums whose members have recognized
Kosovo, if it is to follow through on its Kosovo policy,"
Jovicevic said. Serbia had kept its Ambassador to the EU and
had only withdrew its ambassadors to bilateral missions, she
pointed out, noting it as a positive sign for continuing to
engage with the EU.



EU Concerned of Damaged Relationship

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5. (SBU) The EU office in Belgrade cautioned that the
government's rhetoric and actions against EULEX will cause

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problems for Serbia's pending Stabilization and Accession
Agreement with the EU. EU representative Peter Sorensen told
poloff on March 5 that while Brussels had worked to delink EULEX
from Serbia's SAA process, it was the same group of EU ministers
making decisions on both issues. Serbia does not appreciate the
"psychology" of its aggressiveness towards EULEX, and its
International Civilian Representative Pieter Feith, which "would
not be forgotten" by EU members and could impair Serbia's
efforts to get an SAA, Sorensen said.



Advisors See Damage Being Done

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6. (SBU) Former Tadic advisor and GOS Kosovo negotiator Leon
Kojen told poloff on February 28 that Serbia would suffer
consequences from attacking institutions rather than just
policies. (Kojen resigned from Tadic's staff because he thought
the president was going soft on Kosovo.) He said he was
"surprised" that Kostunica, Kosovo Minister Samardzic and
Infrastructure Minister Ilic reacted to Kosovo independence and
"reprehensible" riots with "savage" attacks on the EU, US and
western European governments. Kojen said that while it was
"completely legitimate" to find fault with EULEX or EU policy,
it was "damaging" to paint the EU itself as a sinister
organization that "validated illegitimacy." Kojen said that
Kostunica-led attacks on the United States (and other European
countries that support Kosovo independence) were equally
damaging for Serbia. Rather than opposing U.S. policy towards
Kosovo and "pleading our case again" with a new U.S.
administration, Kojen said Kostunica was wrong to unleash
anti-Americanism as a political strategy. Kostunica's efforts,
Kojen said, could affect Serbian citizens' perception of the
United States, EU, and other countries for many years.
Similarly, Nenad Djurdjevic, assistant to Minister Rasim Ljajic,
told poloff on March 10 that it was "pragmatic" for Serbia to
join the EU even if it disagreed with EULEX. Djurdjevic said it
would be hard for the citizens to make this kind of choice with
the political tensions so high in the aftermath of Kosovo's
independence.




7. (SBU) Former G-17 official and foreign policy advisor Milan
Pajevic told poloff on March 10 that the DS was unaware of the
long term impact its policy would have with the international
community. Pajevic said it would be hard for the DS to
reconcile its pro-EU platform in upcoming parliamentary
elections if Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic continued traveling
the globe arguing Serbia's case for Kosovo. Pajevic called
Jeremic's actions as unguided, referring to the "inexperienced"
MFA as the "kindergarten foreign policy team." Pajevic said
Tadic should "turn off" any additional similar international
trips and comments by Jeremic to prevent further harm to
Serbia's case for EU membership.




8. (SBU) Jeremic, especially, seems unaware that he is painting
pro-European Serbs into a corner. His continued anti-EULEX
statements and overheated rhetoric about Kosovo will make it
that much harder to mend fences with the west. He has even
stooped to Milosevic-era phrases on victimization of Serbs,
emphasizing the humiliation of the nation at the hands of
foreigners - all the while sending back channel messages to the
embassy of his Atlanticist convictions.



Comment

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9. (SBU) Although the DS leadership may insist that it intends
to get Serbia back on its European path as soon as possible,
recent words and actions by the GOS against the EU most likely
will impact that pace. The DS, particularly FM Jeremic, seems
disconnected from the impact their stand on Kosovo is having
with future foreign relations. End Comment.
MUNTER