SOUTHERN SERBIA CALM IN THE WAKE OF KOSOVO INDEPENDENCE

UNCLAS BELGRADE 000190 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O.12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KBTS KPAO SR MW KV SUBJECT: SOUTHERN SERBIA CALM IN THE WAKE OF KOSOVO INDEPENDENCE Summary -------------- ¶1. Southern Serbia's Presevo Valley remained calm during and after Kosovo's declaration of independence on February 17. GOS officials, security forces, and local leaders of constructively engaged with the area's ethnic Albanian-majority to prevent unrest. While the possibility remains that protests in the ethnically mixed town of Bujanovac could ignite unrest, local contacts expect continued calm. End Summary. Effective Preparations -------------- ¶2. Efforts to maintain stability in Southern Serbia paid off. The GOS took steps to monitor security in the region and to ensure security services did not overreact during the current period of heightened tension following Kosovo's declaration of independence. Labor Minister and head of the GOS Coordinating Body for Southern Serbia (CB) Rasim Ljajic traveled to Bujanovac and Presevo over the weekend of February 16. On February 21 Nenad Djurdjevic, Ljajic's deputy, told poloff that Mayors Nagip Arifi (Bujanovac) and Ragmi Mustafa (Presevo) had assured the CB that ethnic Albanians would not publicly celebrate Kosovo's declaration, to avoid provoking local Serbs. Poloff spoke with Arifi and Mustafa on February 16 to convey the Ambassador's message to ensure stability during this transition and both assured that they would. ¶3. Presevo Valley Albanians also took constructive steps in the days before Kosovo's declaration. Leaders from various Albanian parties in Serbia met on February 16 and released a statement supporting Kosovo independence while calling for Albanians to react to Kosovo independence with "maturity and self-restraint." The statement expressed the leaders' support for the "values of the Ahtisaari Plan" and their application in the Presevo Valley. It called upon the international community to remain involved in the region as a "guarantor of stability." "Everything is OK" -------------- ¶4. Bujanovac OSCE representative Martin Brooks told poloff, February 20, that "absolutely nothing" happened publicly in the ethnically mixed region in the days after Kosovo's declaration. Celebrations were limited to homes and bars and "never spilled into streets." Brooks said the Albanians' statement and similar messages from the international community, Pristina, and Tirana helped keep the peace. Brooks said that Serbian police performed well, with no increased presence and no incidents of overreaching force. There was no visible, local Serb reaction, and the nearest anti-Kosovo protest was in the overwhelmingly Serb city of Vranje, 25 km to the north; and it was peaceful, by all accounts. Djurdjevic told poloff, February 21, that from their view "everything is OK" in Southern Serbia. Djurdjevic said the CB would continue its heightened engagement in the region and would announce new development initiatives soon, such as a local office of the Ministry of Local Economic Development in Bujanovac. Djurdjevic said long-term worries remain, particularly if there are problems in northern Kosovo and worried local Albanian leaders link their status in Serbia with that region's status in Kosovo. Comment -------------- ¶5. Southern Serbia's stability remains fragile but the lack of newsworthy activity in days surrounding Kosovo's declaration marks the success of local, national, and international efforts in the region. The calm bolstered the standing of Halimi, Arifi, and other local leaders among the ethnic Albanians, which will be helpful as they prepare for local elections in May. So far, ethnic Albanian hardliners who advocate for the Presevo Valley's secession from Serbia have been marginalized due to the mature handling of the weekend's events by moderate authorities. Post appreciates efforts by USOP, Embassy Tirana, and others to reinforce USG priorities for Southern Serbia with leaders in Kosovo and Albania. End Comment. MUNTER