SERBIA: GOVERNMENT RESPONSE TO KOSOVO INDEPENDENCE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000185 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/SCE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV KV SR SUBJECT: SERBIA: GOVERNMENT RESPONSE TO KOSOVO INDEPENDENCE Summary -------------- ¶1. (U) The Serbian government is making good on its promise to oppose Kosovo independence at every turn. Political leaders and government officials have taken Serbia's fight into international arenas, pressing their points with legalistic arguments. The government is skirmishing diplomatically with countries that recognize Kosovo, and the politicians will take to the streets along with the crowds to demonstrate their resolve. While the United States and Europe may be the current object of ire, the real fight in Belgrade will be over control of the political agenda. As tensions in Belgrade subside, we must focus on Serbian government actions in Kosovo. The Legal Battle -------------- ¶2. (U) President Boris Tadic and Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic seek support in international fora. Tadic invoked the UN Charter and UN Resolution 1244, as Serbian officials have throughout the Kosovo status negotiations, in defense of Serbia's claim to territorial integrity during his February 18 Security Council address. FM Jeremic added references to the Helsinki Final Act, the Charter of Paris, and the Charter for European Security in remarks before an emergency session of the OSCE Permanent Council, February 19. The MFA told emboffs that Jeremic will also address the Council of Europe. Jeremic said publicly that Serbia would block Kosovo membership in international organizations. "As long as Serbia is a member of the United Nations, Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and the Council of Europe..., the self-proclaimed state of Kosovo will have no access to these institutions." Diplomatic Skirmishes -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The GOS recalled its ambassadors to the United States, Turkey, Afghanistan, France, and Australia, and publicly announced it would do the same for ambassadors to all countries that recognized independent Kosovo. The government made clear it was not breaking relations. PolDir Boris Stefanovic told poloff that Serbia's ambassador to the UK had not yet departed Belgrade, and would not. Stefanovic also said that he expected Ambassador Vujacic would not return to Washington, having already served nearly six years. In Belgrade, the MFA told informed the Ambassador that his access to Serbian officials, and that of ambassadors from other countries that recognize Kosovo, will be limited. He was informed that ministers and state secretaries will not receive him. Emboffs have been told that non-Ambassador access to government officials at or below assistant minister will be possible, if somewhat formalistic. (Energy Ministry officials must get their Minister's approval to meet embassy personnel, but expect approval to be granted routinely.) Undiplomatic Escapades -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Whether driven by emotion, enthusiasm, professional inexperience, or political calculation, FM Vuk Jeremic crossed the line of diplomatic propriety. In a speech carried on Serbian Radio and Television, Jeremic called the administration of President Bush the "worst [U.S.] administration ever" and said that whoever was to win the American presidential elections could not "do worse." No Economic Retaliation for Now -------------- ¶5. (U) News agency Tanjung reported that Trade Minister Bubalo said that the "story of Kosovo in not yet finished, so Serbia cannot impose an economic embargo on part of its territory." The Government has not announced if it will take any economic measures against countries that recognize Kosovo independence. Political Damage Control -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The fragile government coalition is staggering along. PolDir Stefanovic, a member Tadic's Democratic Party (DS),said that the coalition partners are in "constant negotiation" to hold the coalition together. Were the government to collapse and the president to call parliamentary elections, Stefanovic said, the DS would lose dramatically. The DS and its pro-European allies have caved to the militant DSS and removed non-Kosovo topics from the coalition's political agenda for a month. Taking it to the Streets -- in Peaceful Protest -------------- -- ¶7. (U) Government and opposition party members are working together BELGRADE 00000185 002 OF 002 to organize a public demonstration. On February 21 they will lead a peaceful march in central Belgrade which will culminate in an evening church service. The DSS and Radical parties will bus in thousands of supporters from around the country. Trying to Maintain Law and Order -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Emotions are running high, in response to Kosovo's declaration, and the government is trying to use law enforcement assets to keep it in check. Government leaders, in the days since Kosovo declared independence, have urged Serbian citizens to remain calm and refrain from violence. Even in the midst of the violent demonstrations on February 17, Serbian police were professional in working to break up the angry mobs that were attacking targets around Belgrade. DSS whip Aligrudic assured poloff that the Embassy would not have security problems in the days ahead. Comment -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Belgrade's immediate challenge is to get through the next few days without allowing political passions to burn out of control. If all goes well, the organized marches should allow some of the political pressures of the moment to dissipate. But the government's response to Kosovo independence is learly calculated and appears calibrated to keeptensions at a steady simmer. This is certainly he approach of PM Kostunica who benefits from contiued attention to Kosovo, but not a return to busness as usual. He must beware of Radicals and Scialists who may simply go on a rampage. ¶10. (SU) Embassy believes tensions are likely to lessen n Belgrade in the next few days. If and when tha happens, we must keep our eye on the more diffiult flashpoint of Northern Kosovo. The February19 incident at the ABL, at which Kosovo Serbs burnd UNMIK checkpoints, is certainly not likely to e the last such provocation. We note with concer that Ministry of Kosovo officials, and other seior Serbian leaders, visit Northern Kosovo everyday. Kosovo Minister Samardzic, commenting on theFebruary 19 events said, "I believe that the meaure is legitimate. It might not be pleasant, butit is legitimate." Embassy has strongly protestd this to the Serbian government saying violence is not legitimate. Over the next few months, we must be vigilant that the Serbian government's efforts to ignore Kosovo's independence don't lead to more violence north of Mitrovica. End Comment.