SERBIA: GOVERNMENT COLLAPSE LIKELY, BUT NO ONE KNOWS HOW

UNCLAS BELGRADE 000143 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EUN SR XG SUBJECT: SERBIA: GOVERNMENT COLLAPSE LIKELY, BUT NO ONE KNOWS HOW AND WHEN Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Serbia's government is likely to fall. Prime Minister Kostunica has taken a stand against his pro-EU coalition partners. Through the current roiling within the political community it appears that Kostunica may attempt to cobble together a new government with the support of the Radical Party. This government crisis could lead to parliamentary elections. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) Belgrade is abuzz with rumors of the Government of Serbia's imminent collapse. So far, the coalition of President Tadic's Democratic Party (DS),Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS),and G-17 Plus still stands, but the rift between DS and the DSS is widening. Today's crisis erupted when news of the EU's plan for a mission to Kosovo collided with Serbia's plans to sign an interim cooperation agreement with the EU. ¶3. (SBU) Foreign Minister Jeremic (DS) reportedly will convene a session of the government Foreign Affairs Council to authorize Deputy Prime Minister Djelic (also DS) to sign the EU Interim Agreement in Brussels later this week. Djelic issued a statement saying he sees no obstacle to signing the agreement, since the text has no references to Kosovo or Kosovo independence. In a brief television appearance, SRS leader Nikolic said that there would be no place in Serbian politics for anyone who went to Brussels and signed the EU Agreement without valid government authorization and that the agreement would be invalid. Prime Minister Kostunica, for his part, refuses to call a regular cabinet session at which he could be outvoted on the issue. ¶4. (SBU) Whether parliament, currently out of session, will convene a special session to take up this matter is uncertain. B92 television announced that DSS issued a press release asserting that they have sufficient support for their initiative from DSS, SRS and allied MPs to call the extraordinary session of parliamentary and will likely do so tomorrow morning, February 6. During the session, they would raise the EU mission to Kosovo, the signing of an EU Interim Agreement with EU, and the rumored likelihood of a Kosovo declaration of independence on the horizon, B92 reported. Parliament Speaker Oliver Dulic (DS),however, subsequently announced that he would invite the party caucus leaders to meet on Monday, saying that the important thing is to inaugurate President Tadic for his second term (which he expects will take place February 15). The Speaker's adviser told poloff at the end of the day that Dulic would not convene the session this week because he expects the government to fall. His advisor said that Dulic jokingly suggested that by the following week Nikolic might be Serbia's Speaker. ¶5. (SBU) Rumors and suggestions are flying about what type of government might replace the current coalition. Socialist Party Ivica Dacic, appearing on television, this afternoon, suggested a transitional National Unity Government which would be in effect until the parliamentary elections. Contacts told us one rumor that Kostunica approached the SRS to form a caretaker government, with SRS General Secretary Vucic as speaker, but that the SRS rejected the idea. It may be that the current situation, in which the government cabinet doesn't meet and the PM tries to bypass it directly to parliament, could go on for some days -- Defense Minister Sutanovac (DS) told Ambassador he gave it a "60-40" chance that the government would fall as a result of this "stalemate." What then? Sutanovac couldn't say. Comment ¶6. (SBU) Discussion of EU integration in the context of announcement of the EU's decision to send a mission to Kosovo triggered today's series of government-threatening events. It is possible that Kostunica's short-term objective may have been to give the Europeans pause -- literally --- and try to delay a declaration of Kosovo independence, but it is certain that this is not just about Kosovo. Tadic's February 3 election victory, without the support of coalition partner Prime Minister Kostunica, exposed the fragility of the government and put in motion a dynamic where something like this would happen, sooner or later. For now, no one is jumping to take over, perhaps reluctant to be at the helm when Kosovo declares independence. ¶7. (SBU) Should the government fall, Speaker Dulic said he expected new parliamentary elections. Western relief at Sunday's reelection of President Tadic would likely be short-lived, and the complexities of post-Kosovo parliamentary politics in Serbia could lead to Radical gains. That, in turn, could produce a government less committed to the European future Tadic espouses. End comment. MUNTER