SERBIAN VOTERS TURN OUT IN RECORD NUMBERS TO REELECT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000132

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SR
SUBJECT: SERBIAN VOTERS TURN OUT IN RECORD NUMBERS TO REELECT
PRESIDENT

Summary
--------------


1. (U) Record numbers of voters on both sides of a deeply polarized
electorate headed to the polls February 3 to elect Serbia's next
president, choosing Democratic incumbent Boris Tadic over his
Radical Party opponent Tomislav Nikolic. Preliminary results put
Tadic 100,000 votes ahead of Nikolic, and the Tadic camp declared
victory. Final results will come later, but it appears certain that
voters opted for Tadic's promise of a prosperous European future.
Embassy teams traveling throughout Serbia reported steady flows of
voters at polling stations, energized and optimistic campaign staffs
at party headquarters, few polling station irregularities before the
end of the vote, and no certainty about who would win. The votes
are still coming in and the results are expected to be close, quite
possibly too close to call today. Post's analysis of the numeric
results of the election outcome will follow septel on February 4.
This cable will report on election atmospherics and observations
from the field. End summary.

Number Crunching
--------------


2. (U) Serbia's presidential runoff, February 3, drew an apparent
record turnout. Serbia's Center for Free Elections and Democracy
(CeSID) estimated that over 4.4 million voters or 68% of the total
eligible voters had cast ballots. By 5pm in the count had already
exceeded by 300 thousand the total votes cast in the 2004 runoff
between the same candidates. CeSID told emboff before the polls
closed that the last hours of voting that he witnessed an "explosion
of voting." Only strong participation of voters from the Liberal
Democratic opposition party and DS coalition partners New Serbia and
the Democratic Party of Serbia, he said, could account for such
numbers. (Note: This is ironic, considering their leader's weak
support for Tadic during the campaign.)


3. (U) Early in the day, Radical Party General Secretary Vucic told
one ceSID official that he anticipated 4.2 million votes would give
the election to Tadic. Conventional wisdom likewise says that good
weather (like on this election day) and high turnout would favor
Tadic, on the assumption that the Radicals have an upper ceiling of
2.1 million votes. But if recent experience has contradicted
informed wisdom on the matter of Serbian elections, it has taught
that there is no guessing either the Radicals' upper limit or what
will bring the Democrats to the polls. Emboffs who called on
Radical headquarters, in Belgrade and throughout Serbia, in the late
afternoon noted that the party members looked anxious and heard that
Vucic had canceled a television interview.

Meet the Radicals
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4. (U) Outside Belgrade early in the day, the Radical Party (SRS)
was generally more confident. Post used the opportunity of this
election to increase our exposure to the Radicals and theirs to us.
Several Embassy teams reported the Radicals' surprise to receive us
in their headquarters, but, with a few exceptions, the SRS party
workers were willing to share their enthusiasm about the election
and concerns about the future. In Kursumlija, a town where 50% of
the residents are from Kosovo, polling station officials from both
parties worked well together, were well organized, and friendly to
Embassy visitors. Just outside the central Serbia city of Nis, in
Novo Selo, a small town built around a large maximum-security
prison, they were less welcoming. The Novo Selo polling place had
opened late to allow DS officials to remove Nikolic posters that had
gone up overnight on the wall of the polling station. A CeSID
observer told Embassy's team that the SRS chairman of the station
had had barred him from the station for an hour, until a call from
Belgrade gained him access. The polling chairperson had warned that
he would not allow U.S. or UK observers to enter. The threat proved
idle. While he did not talk to the U.S. personnel, he did not
attempt to prevent them from entering.


5. (U) Embassy's team received a cold reception at the SRS
headquarters in the southern city of Vranje. The SRS campaign
workers accused the Democratic Party (DS) of "buying votes" with
care packages for the needy in nearby poor villages. The SRS main
concern, however, was that the United States might not recognize an
SRS victory. They said that the USG had supported the Democratic
Party challenge of vote manipulation in the 1990s (referring to
Milosevic's attempt to falsify the results and steal the 1996
election)and that the United States whould do the same on their
behalf in this election.


6. (U) Radicals in Novi Pazar, the capital of the majority Muslim
Sandzak region, took the opportunity of their first meeting with
Americans to blame the USG for Serbia's troubles with Kosovo. Where
the USG meddles, "there is trouble," they said. Moving beyond
Kosovo, the SRS principal concerns were corruption and the
divisiveness of Sandzak's Islamic communities -- a rift, they said,
that promoted the growth of Islamic fundamentalism. In the smaller,

BELGRADE 00000132 002.2 OF 002


Radical-dominated villages near Novi Pazar, the turnout was steady,
if small, and the reception hospitable. In the mountain town of
Sjenica, which the Bosnian Muslim residents (and presumed DS voters)
claimed was the coldest town in Europe, representatives of the NGO
FLORES also identified the political tension between Muslim groups
as their biggest worry.

Few Election Irregularities
--------------


7. (U) There were few reports of election irregularities and none
that would affect the outcome of the election. National media
reported "an incident" in the south Serbia town of Bujanovac.
Poloff in the vicinity, inquiring further, determined that the
matter involved a man casting a ballot for his wife, who waited
outside the polling station. DS MP Nenad Konstantinovic told us
that in Prokuplje, near the Kosovo border, voting ceased temporarily
in one station when the SRS pollwatcher was observed handing three
ballots to a voter. A subsequent count of the ballots in the box
against the number of individuals having voted oddly showed five
ballots missing. Konstantinovic also said that he expected the
Radicals to challenge up to four thousand ballots in one town of
voters, who had been unable to produce their identification number
and been allowed to vote. (Konstantinovic maintained that election
law permitted this.)

Counting Concerns
--------------


8. (U) Rumors are rampant that the Radicals might disrupt the vote
count if it appeared they were doing poorly. Vojvodina Social
Democratic Party leader Nenad Canak told poloff that the Tadic camp
would declare victory by 10pm, regardless of the official
announcement, to get the jump on the Radicals. Canak expressed
concern that, if the SRS filed a large number of complaints
contesting the outcome, the National Election Commission the (RIK)
might be unable to respond within the requisite 48 hours. In that
case, he said, there would be a second runoff election and an
opportunity for the SRS to increase their turnout.

Comment
--------------

Immediately following the announcement of preliminary results, a
commentator on Radio Television Serbia Channel 1, asked what the
election proved, replied that it proved that Kosovo is a dead issue.
The large turnout also demonstrated Serbian citizen's awareness of
the high stakes in this election. Although the majority of Serbians
chose a reformist leader who would take them west, there is
obviously an enormous segment of the population that would have
chosen otherwise. They will remain a force to be reckoned with by
Serbia's democratic parties (with help from their U.S. and European
friends),who must address their interests and prevent them from
leading Serbia astray or stalling Serbia's progress. End Comment
MUNTER