SERBIA: AS CAMPAIGN CLOSES, PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS TOO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 000131 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL SR SUBJECT: SERBIA: AS CAMPAIGN CLOSES, PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS TOO CLOSE TO CALL REF: A) Belgrade 118 B) Belgrade 111 C) Belgrade 95 D) Belgrade 95 BELGRADE 00000131 001.2 OF 003 Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) As Serbia's presidential election campaign drew to a close, both candidates made their final pitch to voters in an effort to secure what could be a narrow victory or a contested win on Sunday's election day. In a televised debate and rallies, Boris Tadic promoted his European agenda, and urged democratic unity against Radical Tomislav Nikolic, despite a lack of support from his government coalition partner. Nikolic used the final days to go on the offensive, playing up government corruption and trying to portray a more European platform. Poll numbers and analysts predict that Tadic could win by a slight margin. If Tadic wins, it will be by a hair's breadth, and no thanks to what has been a poorly conceived and implemented campaign. End summary. Tadic and Nikolic Face Off In Debate -------------- ¶2. (U) Democratic Party (DS) candidate, President Boris Tadic, and Serbian Radical Party (SRS) candidate, Tomislav Nikolic, faced off on January 30 in the only debate of the campaign. In the televised debate, the candidates each spoke on Kosovo, the EU, the military, and the economy. A confident appearing Tadic, said the elections were a referendum on Serbia's future. He focused on integration with Europe and improving Serbia's economy. Tadic also reminded voters that a vote for Nikolic was a vote for isolation and a return the grim past of the nineties. Tadic repeatedly referred to Nikolic as "head of the Serbian Radical Party, the party of Vojislav Seselj." ¶3. (U) Nikolic, appearing rambling and rude, stressed that Serbia needed a change, with few specifics. Tadic, he said, had failed to deliver and had done little to defend Serbia. Throwing verbal jabs and addressing Tadic as "Mr. Former President," he accused Tadic of supporting corruption, stating, "The criminals are your people." Nikolic said Serbia would accept its friends in the EU as well as Russia and that the EU would cooperate with Serbia whoever won the election. ¶4. (SBU) Analysts and papers said the debate was a clear win for Tadic. Newspapers "Blic" and "Politika" said on January 31 that Nikolic wasted an opportunity to present his program and instead attacked Tadic. According to a poll by Blic after the debate, viewers agreed Tadic won. Zoran Lucic, Executive Director for the Center for Free Elections and Democracy (CeSID),told emboff and other diplomats on January 31 that Tadic appeared confident of his victory and in his plan for Serbia while Nikolic was rude and aggressive and offered no plan for the future. Democratic Party Recreates Mood of the Milosevic Opposition -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Both candidates held their final rallies in Belgrade on January 31, just before the start of the February 1 media blackout. Tadic addressed a crowd of mostly urban students and professionals in their twenties through forties at his open-air rally in Belgrade's Republic Square. Sports and entertainment celebrities and political figures, including DS, G-17+ and Social Democratic Party of Sandzak ministers, shared the stage with Tadic. He urged voters to vote for their future and remain united behind democratic forces. He gave a three-point plan for EU integration, including signing of the Stabilization and Association Agreement with the EU in a matter of weeks, visa-free travel for Serbs to the EU by the end of 2009, and EU candidate status by the end of 2009. Tadic opened and closed his speech with references to Kosovo and spoke about his visit earlier in the day to a Serb enclave in Kosovo. After the speech, Tadic led approximately 3,000 rally-goers on a "walk through the streets," reminiscent of the daily protest rallies of the winter of 1996, following Milosevic's refusal to accept the results of the local elections. Several participants held signs from the opposition movement that helped bring down Milosevic. A DS party leader told poloff on January 31 that Tadic's closing rally was a great success that excited the voters. Radicals Shows Their True Colors -------------- ¶6. (U) On the other side of the city, approximately 10,000 middle-aged rural men and younger (probably unemployed) men attended Nikolic's rally at the Belgrade Arena. Many were bused in from other areas of Serbia, and the atmosphere was chaotic, with alcohol and a lively marketplace to purchase Seselj pins, SRS flags, and posters of Hague indictees Mladic and Karadzic. In his speech, Nikolic said he did not oppose Europe and supported European values and EU investment in Serbia. He called on the EU, "to not touch Kosovo and Metohija." He again attacked Tadic on corruption and economic performance. BELGRADE 00000131 002.2 OF 003 Little Support to Either Candidate from Other Parties -------------- ¶7. (SBU) After much anticipation, Tadic received no support from his main government coalition partner Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) leader, Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, In a press conference on January 30, Kostunica and Nova Serbia (NS) party leader, Velimir Ilic, announced that they would not support Tadic. Kostunica said DSS and NS based their decision on Tadic's refusal to sign Kostunica's proposal to amend the coalition agreement to reject signing an SAA if the EU sends a mission to Kosovo (ref A). Of the other parties fielding candidates in the first round, only the Coalition of Vojvodina Hungarians supported Tadic (ref A). Also on January 30, Novi Pazar mayor and head of the List for Sandzak coalition, Sulejman Ugljanin called on his supporters to vote for Tadic. ¶8. (U) The other parties declined to support anyone. Ceda Jovanovic's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) issued a press release on January 30, calling on supporters to vote their own conscience (ref A). In a press conference in Novi Sad on January 30, the League of Vojvodina Social Democrats asked its supporters to vote against Nikolic, although League head Nenad Canak earlier actively supported Tadic's campaign. The Socialist Party of Serbia issued a press release on January 30 announcing that it would not support any candidate. Albanians Will Not Vote--A Missed Opportunity? -------------- ¶9. (U) With neither candidate actively courting their vote, ethnic Albanians are not expected to participate in the second round of the elections. An estimated 40,000 ethnic Albanians in southern Serbia would not vote, but there would be no official boycott, Party for Democratic Action (PDD) official Shaip Kamberi told Vranje Press agency on January 30. Kamberi said his party and local Albanians were disappointed that Tadic had not addressed their requests in his campaign--demilitarization of the region, opening of a teachers' college, and reorganization of the Coordination Body for Southern Serbia. Tadic, as a pro-European democratic candidate, should have considered the importance of voters from all minorities. PDD considered supporting a Radical candidate "out of the question," but Albanians could not give their votes without something in return, Kamberi said. Predictions of a Tadic Win -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Local pollsters and analysts predicted a high turnout and a close win for Tadic. CeSID's Lucic told diplomats on January 31 that he predicted record-breaking turnout of 80% (4.4 million) with Tadic winning by 100,000 to 150,000 votes over Nikolic. Lucic anticipated that even without Kostunica's support, DSS voters would nonetheless vote for Tadic, particularly if Kostunica and Ilic voted early in the day. CeSID's polling data indicates 50% of DSS voters would vote for Tadic while 20% would support the Radicals. Lucic said Kostunica's announcement of non-support signaled the beginning of his downfall, which could culminate in a polarized two-party system pitting the DS against the Radicals. Although optimistic of a narrow win for Tadic, CeSID Director Marko Blagojevic told poloff on January 30 that the Radicals might try to contest election results shortly after the polls close on February 3 (septel). ¶11. (SBU) Ivan Vejvoda, director of the respected Balkan Trust for Democracy and former DS official, told poloff January 30 that he was confident Tadic would be reelected. He said that the voters had a choice "between certainty and uncertainty" and that "unrefined" polling did not accurately reflect the concern Serbians had about returning to the 1990s with the Radicals' policies. Vejvoda said that the citizens remembered how the Serbian financial markets had plunged when Nikolic was briefly elected as Parliamentary speaker in May 2007. He said that Tadic had "finally made his voice heard" on making the election a referendum on Serbia's European future after months of compromising with the DSS to preserve his government coalition. Vejvoda said that Kostunica had "poured cold water" on the dream of EU integration by trying to link the SAA with the EU Mission to Kosovo and that Tadic had strengthened his position by rejecting Kostunica's support contingent on this policy. Vejvoda said that the majority in the government--the pro-EU DS and G17 Plus--could now "speak with authority" on making European integration the primary objective for the country, after a Tadic victory. Comment -------------- ¶12. (SBU) After several stumbles, Tadic's final campaign message came across clear and more confident--putting Serbia squarely on the path to EU while protecting Kosovo as well. In his final pitch to voters, Tadic aggressively reminded voters of the Radicals' ugly past. Tadic's confident attitude and references to the nineties may BELGRADE 00000131 003.2 OF 003 pull in some voters who were planning to stay home, despite his lack of support from Kostunica. Nikolic's final campaign strategy tried to muddy the differences between his and Tadic's platforms, but his rough demeanor may have scared away the votes he was seeking. Although Tadic seems slightly favored, any win will be slim and could result in a contested election, following a flawed campaign. End Comment. BRUSH